Mike McCarthy used to be a premiere offensive mind in the NFL, leading a series of outstanding Packer offenses around their Super Bowl appearance. Times change, Mike does not, and as a result, McCarthy’s scheme, which relies on players winning individual battles on fairly standard routes, is perfectly fine under certain circumstances, especially when your third and fourth receivers can capitalize on the mismatches that result from a defense having to overcommit to the first two options.
At the height of their powers the Packers had Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jermichael Finley all available. That depth of receiving talent is a matchup nightmare for every team in the league, and 27-year-old James Jones will destroy even good backup corners and safeties.
McCarthy doesn’t have that level of receiving talent anymore, and while Aaron Rodgers will make anything work fairly well, the Packers would benefit from a more modern approach to offensive game planning. That style of offensive game planning is about to be on display in the Super Bowl for the second year in a row.
Last year Bill Belichick was nearly outdueled by Kyle Shanahan, now with the 49ers. This season Belichick will face off against former Packer quarterback and current Eagle head coach Doug Pederson, who has quickly transformed his team into one of the most forward-thinking entities in the NFL. This should be an excellent chess match.
Being Bad to Be Good
The most unfortunate thing about this Super Bowl is that the Eagles lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz for the season due to an ACL tear in Week 14. Nick Foles is a decent backup, but he’s a huge downgrade from Wentz, and not close to Tom Brady. No matter what anyone does strategically in this game, the Patriots simply enjoy a huge advantage at the games most important position. That said, the Eagles defense can serve as an equalizer, and the Eagles do enjoy a strategic advantage that most Patriot opponents do not.
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Ed Feng is a football analyst with a strong mathematical bent. You can usually find him calculating point spreads at his website ThePowerRank.Com, but he recently wrote an interesting piece for Football Perspective confirming an idea that I’ve had for a long time now:
“Before Super Bowl XXV, Bill Belichick had a plan. The Giants defensive coordinator wanted his defense to let Bills running back Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards. The Giants defense was appalled. They prided themselves on a tough, physical brand of defense.
Nevertheless, the short, stout coach looked up into the eyes of Lawrence Taylor and Pepper Johnson and said, ‘You guys have to believe me. If Thomas rushes for a hundred yards, we win this game.’’
Belichick is happy to sell out on pass defense at the expense of his run defense, but more than that, he is happy to allow his run defense to tempt lesser coaches into running more than they should. The Pats feature one of the worst run defenses in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, ranking 30th, but that ranking is deceptive. The fact is that the Patriots can stop the run if they want to, and only allowed six rushing touchdowns all season. They remind me very much of a vintage Dom Capers defense. Capers’ defenses, when they work, almost always have good pass defenses and poor rush defenses. As it turns out, the Patriots and Capers share a similar vulnerability.
When Game Theory Backfires
New England went 13-3 this season, but in two of those losses they just happened to face mobile quarterbacks. The Chiefs’ creative run-pass option attack allowed them to put up 42 points, led by an outstanding game from rookie running back Kareem Hunt, and made possible by a surprisingly mobile Alex Smith. The other team to really beat up the Patriots was the Panthers, and Cam Newton, who ran for 44 yards and a touchdown, while throwing for 3 more.
It’s tempting to blame their struggles on running quarterbacks, but it is slightly more complicated. The Pats want their opponents to run, but they want them to run out of running formations. Where they struggle is with teams that are willing to run out of passing formations, and this is where the Eagles can do some damage. The Eagles utilize a run-pass option scheme that can give the Pats fits, but more importantly, almost 60% of their running plays are run out of 11-personnel, composed of one RB, three WR and one TE, per analyst Warren Sharp.
Eagles’ running back Jay Ajayi excels as a passing down running back and is better than most backs taking carries out of the shotgun formation. If I were the Eagles I would stay completely out of any kind of base or power formation. The way to score against New England is to keep your passing personnel on the field, and to create a rushing attack so efficient it rivals your passing game on a per play basis. The Patriots want you to run, but the Eagles have the brains and the personnel to make them regret it.
