Jim Bievers/ Packers.com
Words like “chemistry” and “trust” are often thrown out there by analysts who have run out of real things to talk about, but trust in the NFL is an actual, important idea with real measurable consequences. There will be a lot of pontificating about just what went wrong with the Packer offense against the Rams, and most of it will mention Rodgers being “off” or the team’s perceived lack of a deep threat, but the real answer is a lack of trust.
If the answer was simply a lack of a deep threat, Jeff Janis would be on the field constantly. Instead, Jeff Janis is barely on the field at all because he cannot be trusted to run the correct route in the complicated Packer offense. The fact of the matter is that Jordy Nelson’s deep speed is only a small part of what made him so dangerous, and it’s not the part they miss.
Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers basically perfected the art of the “back shoulder throw” last season. On a back shoulder route, the receiver will cut hard in the direction of the defensive back, attempting to get him to commit to that side. Just before the quarterback releases the ball, that wide receiver will turn back hard the other way, opening his body, presenting a wide target, and screening off the defender while looking for a ball thrown to his back shoulder, the part of his body furthest from a defender.
The Rodgers-Nelson back shoulder required the same proper pre-snap and mid-play reads from both Rodgers and Nelson, precise route running, and an on target throw. If the receiver fails to cut back on this play, the ball will end up in wide open space, or possibly the waiting arms of a defender. It is critical that both players be on the same page for a play like this to work, but if executed correctly it’s nearly impossible to defend. It takes a great deal of trust between receiver and quarterback to make this throw, and many others like it. You may have noticed that Rodgers hasn’t thrown one of these in quite some time, and certainly not with the frequency of 2014 and before.
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The key problem with the Packer offense against the Rams was that they have only one receiver truly on the same page with Rodgers, that being Randall Cobb. James Jones is obviously familiar with the system as well, but he’s more of a physical receiver. Cobb’s biggest skills are his route running and agility. Trust routes, or timing routes, are usually quick throws, and the Rams did an excellent job of blanketing Cobb early in any given play, taking away the standard timing patterns, and limiting his yards after the catch. The Rams could afford to use this strategy because they have the ability to generate a steady pass rush without blitzing, and when they took away Rodgers’ first short read and forced him to extend plays they were often able to force bad throws or to get in some hits. In the end Cobb finished with a pedestrian 3 catches for 23 yards and Rodgers was downright bad. They made enough plays, and the defense once again came to the rescue with a dominating performance, but it was worrisome, and I suspect future opponents will study this game tape long and hard. Taking away Cobb (and Jones) in this manner frustrated Rodgers to no end. It caused at least one delay of game penalty and their late defensive shifts frequently put the Packers in bad matchup situations.The only positive is that this situation is likely to improve.
Ty Montgomery continues to improve, and showed flashes as a reliable timing route receiver on a few occasions, and Davante Adams will eventually return. Adams, even in his rookie season, was often counted on to recognize one-on-one situations and expect the ball. One of the reasons people were excited for his second season, including the Packers, was that he had earned Rodgers’ trust in camp and in preseason. Getting him back and healthy may be a huge boost. More than anything, the more the young players practice and play the more comfortable Rodgers will be in trusting them, and the more the playbook will expand.
The other good news is that they will not face another defense that can apply pressure like this until they face the all-world Denver Bronco defense in 3 weeks, and in my opinion Peyton Manning should be much more worried about facing Packer defense that already has 20 sacks on the season. Trust is a real, impactful football skill, and like any skill, it gets better with practice. Unlike most football skills, it also improves with age. You can count of the Packer offense being better two months from now and paired with the current defense, that is a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL.
Next week the Packers face the San Diego Chargers, who have one of the worst defenses in football. I suspect that the offense will look like their old selves and they will head into the bye week with some extra confidence.
