Photo: Geoff Eccles - Getty Images
Milwaukee downtown panorama
Policygenius, an independent nationwide insurance broker, recently published a list of best and worst large cities projected to weather climate change. Milwaukee ranked sixth among the 50 most populous U.S. cities.
The data analysis looked at six indicators of climate-related issues:
• Heat and humidity. Policygenius researchers analyzed data from a 2017 Rutgers University study of U.S. county-level climate projections for the years 2040 to 2059 to calculate average days with extreme heat over 95 degrees Fahrenheit. They also considered “high wet bulb temperatures” above 80 degrees that reflect both high heat and humidity—a combination that can be deadly.
• Flooding and sea level rise. Data from First Street Foundation was analyzed to determine the percentage of properties in each city projected to be within a 100-year flood plain in 2050. This means that the property has a one percent chance of flooding in any given year. The study also looked at the percentage of properties projected to have at least a 10 percent annual chance of flooding due to sea level rise by 2040. This data was available only for certain coastal cities, but it was important enough to those cities to consider it.
• Climate-related disasters. The Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) uses occurrences from 2014 to 2021 to calculate the annual frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires in each city.
• Air quality. Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was analyzed to determine the number of days in 2021 with registered “good” air quality in each city.
• Social vulnerability. Each city’s susceptibility to death, injury, and disruption from natural hazards was identified using data from the University of South Carolina’s Social Vulnerability Index.
• Community resilience. Data from the University of South Carolina’s Social Vulnerability Index was also used to identify each city’s ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions.
Weighing each factor equally, the result is a theoretical suggestion of which cities might fare best or worst during the next 30 years,” according to the researchers. However, since only the 50 largest cities were evaluated, they said, “it bears to keep in mind that while San Francisco has the lowest risk on this list, it actually has a much higher risk than many smaller cities in the U.S.”
|
|
“Milwaukee slides in at number six on our best cities for climate change list thanks to its below-average number of days with extreme heat predicted for 2050”—just 9 days versus the average of 44 days for other cities in this study.” However, it will still feel the effects of heat and humidity as much as other cities on this list—a projected 19 days for 2050 (compared to the average of 18 days for all of the cities in this index).
While a city situated on Lake Michigan might be expected to see an above-average threat of flooding, researchers reported that is not the case. “By 2050, just shy of five percent of Milwaukee properties will be in 100-year flood plains, an increase of only 0.35% over today. But its air quality isn’t quite the breath of fresh air you’d expect—just 58 percent of days in 2021 were considered ‘good’ air quality versus the 63% average for the cities in this index.”
Milwaukee might be prepared for the changing climate— coring high marks for its “community resiliency” score—but it ranks low on the “social vulnerability” score. https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/social-vulnerability Milwaukee scores four times lower than the other cities in this top 10 list. “While this likely has more to do with the civil unrest and record-breaking violence the city has seen in the wake of the murder of George Floyd in 2020, it may be indicative of how quickly the residents would bounce back after a climate-related disaster,” according to the report.
Other cities ranked in the top 10 were, from highest to lowest: https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/best-and-worst-cities-climate-change/: San Francisco; Seattle; Columbus, Ohio; Minneapolis; Baltimore; Portland, Ore.; Pittsburgh; Richmond; and Denver. The 10 lowest-ranked cities, starting with the worst, were: Houston; Miami; Tampa; Jacksonville; Orlando; New Orleans; Los Angeles; Memphis; Riverside, Calif.; and Virginia Beach.
Erick Shambarger, director of environmental sustainability for the City of Milwaukee, said that the ranking is positive news for Milwaukee. “But it does not diminish our responsibility to continue to reduce our use of fossil fuels. The City’s forthcoming Climate & Equity Plan will chart a course for additional necessary actions. We are working in partnership with other communities, businesses, the State of Wisconsin, and federal partners to make the necessary changes and investments in the clean-energy economy.”
