18 Bets for the Season Ahead

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Photo: Christian Yelich - Twitter

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

With Opening Day just a few days away, it’s time to make some predictions about the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers. For the fifth consecutive year I’ll do that with help from BetOnline, who has published a list of 18 proposition bets for the season ahead.

After an extremely successful 2019 season (12-6), I’ve had a rough couple of years with these predictions: I went 7-8 with a pair of pushes in the abbreviated 2020 season, and 7-8 again in 2021. As is often the case, some of these lines were impressively close to reality: Omar Narvaez’s final home run of the 2021 season was his eleventh, for example, pushing him half a home run clear of BetOnline’s 10.5 over/under and moving my season slate from a win to a loss.

So, let’s give this another shot. This season there are 18 over/unders to consider featuring 10 Brewers, five position players and five pitchers. Last season the Brewers reached the over on just five of the 15 propositions. Let’s see what they have in store this year:

Christian Yelich: 23.5 home runs, 76.5 RBI

The hardest Brewer to predict might be the first one, as once again we’re being asked to guess if Christian Yelich is going to be the MVP contender he was in 2018 and 2019 or the significantly diminished player he’s been the last two seasons. Last season BetOnline wanted us to guess if Yelich would hit 34.5 home runs and 93.5 RBI. He finished with nine and 51, respectively.

The projection systems don’t offer much help on the first of these two numbers: The seven models curated at FanGraphs all have Yelich between 22 and 27 home runs this season. Throughout his extended struggles Yelich has continued to hit the ball hard but has not been able to elevate it reliably: Statcast estimates that last season his slugging percentage should have been under .400. I’ll take the under on home runs.

Furthermore, if Yelich’s power continues to lag then his plate discipline may be best used nearer the top of the lineup. He batted in the second spot in 20 games in 2021, a role he could be asked to fill more often this season. Unless he regularly bats in the middle of the lineup, 76.5 RBI will also be hard to come by. I’ll take the under here, also.

Luis Urias: 19.5 home runs, 68.5 RBI

Urias cleared both of these marks despite a slow start in 2021: He had a .640 on-base plus slugging on May 12 and an .829 mark the rest of the way. He’s only 24 years old, and so there’s reason to believe the best is yet to come. This season, however, it’s going to be harder for Urias to catch anyone by surprise. He’s gone from being a potential contributor in the Brewers’ lineup to someone opposing teams have to plan for. He’s going to get fewer pitches to hit, and opposing pitchers will know his weaknesses.

There’s also the question of Urias’ lingering quad injury, which popped up nearly immediately in camp this spring and will keep him out past Opening Day. If that injury lingers or reoccurs it’ll make him a long shot at best to reach these numbers. Urias could have a very good season in 2022 but still fail to reach either of these numbers. I’ll take both unders.

Hunter Renfroe: 31.5 home runs, 87.5 RBI

These are some high bars to clear for the Brewers’ newest all-or-nothing slugger. Renfroe hit 31 home runs in Boston last season in a lot of opportunities at the plate: He played in 144 games for the Red Sox. He’s surpassed the mark here just once in his career, with the Padres in 2019. He also has a .297 career on-base percentage, so his power has come at a cost to his other attributes at the plate. 

For our purposes here the biggest thing Renfroe needs to approach these numbers is playing time, and there are some questions on that front. The first is the Brewers’ depth: While Renfroe has been extremely good against left-handed pitchers in his career, he’s not as good against righties and the Brewers will have lots of candidates to play in his place on those days. There’s also the question of Renfroe’s plate discipline and the Brewers’ willingness to tolerate it if he continues to drag a sub-.300 on-base. That’s enough question marks to justify a pair of unders.

Willy Adames: 24.5 home runs, 74.5 RBI

In less than a year Adames has gone from being a player who was struggling in Tampa to being the Brewers’ most indispensable performer. These numbers are roughly in line with his 2021 contributions between his two teams, as he finished with 25 and 73.

Adames has the opposite of Renfroe’s problem: The Brewers have a distinct lack of options to take over if something happens to Adames, especially while Urias remains on the shelf. Barring an injury or a sharp decline Adames is going to play most days and bat high in the lineup. I’ll take the over on both fronts.

Andrew McCutchen: 20.5 home runs, 63.5 RBI

He’s closing in on a decade since his 2013 National League MVP season and it’s been seven years since McCutchen was an All Star, but the 35-year-old is still a notable offensive contributor. Even as his bat has slowed a bit, McCutchen has remained effective at least in part due to exceptional plate discipline: Since the start of the 2019 season his on-base percentage (.343) is more than 100 points higher than his batting average (.238). And when he strikes, McCutchen can still put a charge into the ball. He hit 27 home runs last season.

Given that combination of McCutchen’s power, plate discipline and his veteran status, he’s likely to play a lot. The fact that the National League added the designated hitter gives the Brewers another chance to get him into the lineup each day and could keep him healthy and strong for a long productive season. I’ll take both overs.

Brandon Woodruff: 12.5 wins, 205.5 strikeouts

Corbin Burnes: 12.5 wins, 220.5 strikeouts

I’ll take these two together, because the same arguments apply to both. Woodruff was a perfect example of how pitching wins can be deceptive as a statistic: He was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2021 and still won just nine games. Burnes had slightly better luck but still only won 11. The Brewers’ pitching philosophy simply is not conducive to starting pitchers racking up large win totals: They’re too inclined to go to their bullpen, even if the designated hitter will mean their starters no longer need to be lifted for pinch hitters. I’ll take the under on wins for both. 

There is no reason to believe, however, that baseball’s recent trend of increased strikeouts is going away anytime soon. Woodruff struck out 211 batters and Burnes struck out 234 last year and, if anything, those numbers seem more likely to increase than decrease in 2022. I’ll take the over on both.

Freddy Peralta: 10.5 wins, 200.5 strikeouts

The caveats regarding Woodruff and Burnes above also apply to Peralta. His sub-3.00 ERA only netted him 10 wins last season. For Peralta to clear his marks, however, he needs to pitch more, either working deeper into games or pitching more often: He logged just 144 innings last season and so, good as he was, his “counting stats” lagged a bit.

The Brewers know Peralta can be extremely effective with a workload that’s noticeably less than a traditional starting pitcher, and they may not have cause to press their luck by seeking more: Pitching depth is the organization’s greatest strong suit, so they have everything they need to manage Peralta’s workload without sacrificing their chances of winning. I’ll take both unders.

Adrian Houser: 8.5 wins

Houser just gets the single stat to predict and, unfortunately, it’s the luck-driven one. The Brewers provided the right combination of inputs for Houser to clear this bar a year ago, as he won 10 games despite logging just 142 ⅓ innings, even less than Peralta.

The Brewers only allowed a pitcher to throw 100 pitches in a game in 16% of their games last season, but they did let Houser reach that mark four times. When he’s on he has the ability to work deep into games with relative efficiency, getting early outs instead of working to a strikeout. His bar to clear is also lower than Peralta’s. I’ll take the over.

Josh Hader: 32.5 saves

The National League Reliever of the Year Award is named after Trevor Hoffman but in recent years they could have called it the Josh Hader Award: He’s won it three of the last four seasons, including last year when he recorded 34 saves. 

There is a mild concern regarding the schedule here: Fitting 162 games into a slightly abbreviated window of time may lead to a few extra days when Hader is unavailable, and the Brewers have demonstrated a strong interest in managing his workload. With that said, Hader has proven to be a consistent performer in a field wrought with inconsistency. He needs to be treated as an elite closer until he proves otherwise, and that includes betting the over here.