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Welcome to the On Deck Circle, Brewers writer Kyle Lobner’s weekly look at the time’s week to come and beyond.
Two months from now, it’s possible the entire conversation around this Milwaukee Brewers team will be about baseball’s upcoming non-waiver trade deadline and the players that could be on the move as the organization continues to turn veteran, short-term assets into long-term pieces. Barring something unforeseen, it seems likely most of the conversations around the deadline will involve Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, as has been the case for quite some time now.
With that said, however, I think the folks clamoring for a Lucroy or Braun deal are missing another significant opportunity to get value for a veteran player. I’d like to make a case for dealing closer Jeremy Jeffress, whose value may never be higher than it is right now.
Jeffress pitched a scoreless inning in a non-save situation, wrapping up a quiet weekend that saw him get three consecutive days off after pitching five times in the previous six days. With that outing, he lowered his ERA to 2.37 in 20 outings this season, 12 of which have come in save chances. He’s 11-for-12 in those opportunities, a statistic that could give him significant value for the right team this summer. I think the Brewers should take advantage of that, and here’s why:
Jeffress is closer to free agency than you might realize. 2016 is actually his seventh major league season. He’s bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors since 2010 but he entered the season with two years and 104 days of MLB service time, and will almost certainly be eligible for arbitration for the first time following the season. Extrapolating that out further, he’d become a free agent following the 2019 season.
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The arbitration process highly values (and likely overvalues) pitchers with closing experience. Consider these three examples from last winter within the NL Central:
· Cardinals reliever Steve Cishek was eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter. He was never one of the game’s best relievers, but his 73 combined saves over two seasons with the Marlins in 2013-14 escalated his arbitration value to the point where he avoided arbitration with a $6.65 million contract in his first year of eligibility in 2015. Despite the fact that Cishek closed just a handful of games in 2015, Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projected he would have received $7.1 million if the Cardinals had held onto him for 2016. They non-tendered him instead, and he later signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Mariners.
· Also on the Cardinals, closer Trevor Rosenthal was an All Star in 2015 and saved 93 games over two seasons in 2014-15 before becoming arbitration eligible for the first time. The Cardinals avoided a hearing by signing him to a one-year, $5.6 million contract.
· Cubs reliever Hector Rondon had even less closing experience (59 saves over two seasons) when he became eligible for the first time. He avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.2 million deal.
First time arbitration numbers set a very significant precedent, because they create something of a baseline for future salaries: It’s virtually unheard of for a player to receive a pay cut in the arbitration process, so even if their performance or role diminishes, a high early arbitration salary likely raises their cost to their team for all three arbitration seasons.
Jeffress may be in his prime right now. He’ll turn 29 in September, meaning his likely escalating upcoming salaries will correspond with the seasons where he turns 30, 31 and 32. Clearly, that’s not too old to be effective, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility to suggest his performance may decline over that time. Entering play Sunday Jeffress had a 2.52 ERA in 133 MLB appearances during his age 25-28 seasons, and struck out 8.4 batters per nine innings. Given Jeffress’ high velocity, there’s no guarantee he’ll be physically capable of doing that again as he racks up appearances and age over the next few years.
Now, let me make something perfectly clear: I’m not advocating for the Brewers to dump Jeffress just to get rid of him. He’s shown the ability to be a very good reliever during his second run with Milwaukee, and he provides a fair amount of value. But with that said, if the Brewers get an opportunity to capitalize on his currently peaking value before his service time, salary and age become a factor, I think they need to consider it.
