Photo via Mike Brosseau - Instagram
Mike Brosseau
Mike Brosseau
The Brewers are coming off an ugly road trip as they return home on Monday, and if they’re hoping to gain ground on the NL Central-leading Pirates they’re going to need to overcome a longstanding challenge.
In their first 34 games this season the Brewers have faced ten left-handed starters, and their offense has largely struggled to answer the bell against them. Many of those lefties have not been successful on the season as a whole: The list includes David Peterson of the Mets (7.34 ERA), Matthew Boyd of the Tigers (5.28) and Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers and José Suarez of the Angels (5.40, 5.10 and 9.62, respectively). They’ve largely had success against the Brewers, however, posting a combined 2.83 ERA across 54 innings.
The Brewers have faced at least one left-handed pitcher, a starter or reliever, in 27 of their first 34 games and when a lefty is on the mound, they bat .213 with a .279 on-base percentage and .331 slugging for an MLB-worst .610 OPS. That number looks even worse in the context of their overall performance: tOPS+ is a statistic designed to show how well a player or team did in a specific situation as compared to their overall performance, with numbers above 100 showing better than typical production and numbers under 100 showing the opposite. The Brewers’ 72 tOPS+ against lefties is also the worst in baseball.
This is a familiar concern for the Brewers and their fans, as the offense also struggled against lefties last season. In 2022 they ranked 28th in the sport with an 87 tOPS+, though, so the dip in their performance with a southpaw on the mound has gotten significantly worse.
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Just Lucky?
As is often the case with early season statistics, it is possible luck has played some role in the Brewers’ early season struggles. It’s a long-held belief across the sport that batters have limited control over what happens once they put a ball in play, and against lefties the Brewers are batting just .288 when they do that. That’s down from an MLB average of .305. The difference between what they’re experiencing and normal batted ball luck is about five hits over the course of the aforementioned 27 games, which would be enough to raise their batting average in that situation from .213 to .230.
The Brewers also, however, haven’t gotten much production from the players who would seem to be on the roster specifically for their ability to succeed against left-handed pitching. In concept right-handed first baseman Luke Voit would seem to be a candidate to succeed against lefties, for example, but he’s actually been much better against right-handed pitching over the course of his career. Voit has come to the plate against lefties 28 times this season and managed just two singles while striking out 16 times.
Veteran infielder Mike Brosseau has been a good hitter against lefties over the course of his career, batting .267 with a .329 on-base and .467 slugging in those situations across his five MLB seasons. That success has not followed him to 2023, however, where he’s batting just .172/.226/.276 in 31 plate appearances in the same category.
Meanwhile, one of the Brewers’ best hitters against lefties from last season has taken the field just one time in 2023. Luis Urías suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day that was expected to keep him out for 6-8 weeks, but the Brewers have since moved him to the 60-day injured list and eliminated hope that he’ll be back before June. Urías was able to hit both lefties and righties at a similar level last season, posting a .752 OPS with a lefty on the mound as compared to a .734 mark against righties. He was better against southpaws in 2021, however.
Even after Urías returns, however, this will likely remain an area where the Brewers could improve. It’s likely to be a topic of conversation again this week as the Dodgers come to town: Longtime ace Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to start against the Brewers on Wednesday, and lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson has a 1.26 ERA for Los Angeles out of the bullpen. Looking ahead to the weekend, the Royals also have a pair of veteran lefties in their bullpen in former Reds Amir Garrett and Aroldis Chapman. Until or unless the Brewers prove they can hit lefties, they’re likely to see a lot of them in key situations.
