The 2020 season was always going to be a year of change for the Milwaukee Brewers, but recent events have made it clear just how fast a major league roster can turn over.
According to Baseball Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement the 2019 Brewers had seven position players worth at least one win: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun and Eric Thames. Three of those players are no longer in the organization. A fourth, Cain, has opted out of the 2020 season and a fifth, Braun, is currently on the injured list. When the Brewers gave Christian Yelich a night off on Wednesday it left them with just one of the seven core players from less than a year ago in their starting lineup.
Meanwhile, the performances of the players the Brewers selected to replace their departing stars have been mixed at best. The struggles start with first baseman Justin Smoak, who has come to the plate more often than all but two of his teammates (Yelich and Hiura) this season. Even after three hits on Sunday Smoak is batting just .182 with a .229 on-base percentage and .295 slugging through his first dozen games, and FanGraphs also estimates he’s already cost the Brewers over two runs this season defensively. Smoak was always going to have big shoes to fill when trying to replace a popular and productive incumbent starter in Eric Thames, but to date the Brewers’ bet that he could bounce back from a rough season in 2019 doesn’t look so good.
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Betting Big on Eric Sogard
The Brewers also bet big on infielder Eric Sogard, playing him in 12 of their first 13 contests. Sogard was a productive major league hitter with the Blue Jays and Rays in 2019 but is less than two years removed from a woeful 2018 season, when he batted just .134 in 55 games for the Brewers and was released during the season. He’s started more than half of this season’s games in the leadoff spot and his willingness to work the count has earned him a .400 on-base percentage, but his power has been minimal. It’s not his fault that the Brewers put him and others in position to replace Mike Moustakas at third base, but the difference between the two offensively is significant.
Meanwhile, one of the Brewers’ biggest offseason projects was trying to upend acquisition Omar Narvaez’s reputation as a poor defensive catcher, and they’ve seen some success there. Narvaez rated as one of the worst catchers in baseball at pitch framing in 2019 and he’s been above average according to Baseball Prospectus in an early small sample size. While his defense is much improved, his bat has yet to come around. He’s just 5 for his first 28 at the plate with one extra base hit for a .214 slugging percentage.
Smoak, Sogard and Narvaez aren’t the only new Brewers struggling at the plate: new Brewers Avisail Garcia, Logan Morrison and Brock Holt all also have an on-base plus slugging of .605 or below, as compared to a National League average of .712. Combined, Baseball Reference estimates Brewers position players have been worth a win and a half below replacement level through their first 13 games and that number includes a positive contribution from Lorenzo Cain before he opted out.
One of the challenges with evaluating performances in 2020 is weighing the urge to say “it’s still early” against the fact that it’s going to get late quickly: The Brewers’ sample size is small but it also reflects about 25% of an abbreviated season. It’s going to require a pretty quick and significant turnaround for these new Brewers to come away with a positive performance this year.
To read more Brewers On Deck Circle columns by Kyle Lobner, click here.
