Cactus League Game Gives Clues to Brewers’ Opening Day Roster

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Image via Twitter / Brewers

The Brewers’ first Cactus League game on Sunday was only six innings long, but it featured a significant number of players with something to prove.

The process of evaluating players in spring training is perhaps not what it used to be. Given the technology available, teams are significantly more likely to focus on inputs rather than outputs and rank players based on factors like their spin rate or exit velocity instead of their on-field outcomes. Nonetheless, one thing has not changed: The Brewers have an array of players in camp this spring who can safely assume they have a position on the Opening Day roster and use the Cactus League schedule to prepare for that, and another group that needs to use the next month to prove they belong.

Here are a few of the players from that latter group, who have work to do in Phoenix to prove they belong in Milwaukee:

Eric Lauer

The Brewers wasted no time getting an opportunity to one of the starting pitchers on their roster bubble, as Lauer started the Cactus League opener on Sunday. After coming over in a trade from the Padres Lauer endured a disastrous 2020 season, where he was limited due to injury and posted a 13.09 ERA in four appearances (two starts).

A quick look at Lauer’s peripheral numbers from 2020 suggests that velocity was not an issue: His fastball sat around 91-92 in his final season with the Padres in 2019 and stayed around that level with the Brewers last season. Opposing batters hit the ball much harder against him, however, and elevated it much more often. Some bad luck also likely contributed to his downfall, as opposing batters hit .417 on balls in play against him.

Lauer would likely benefit from pitching in front of an improved Brewers defense in 2021, but he’ll have some work to do this spring to prove he deserves to do so: Making the rotation would likely require him to unseat a veteran like Josh Lindblom or Brett Anderson. 

Daniel Vogelbach

After providing a nice spark for the Brewers’ otherwise flagging offense down the stretch in 2020, Vogelbach has a challenge ahead of him in the effort to prove he deserves an opportunity for an encore performance in 2021.

Vogelbach batted .328 with a .418 on-base and .569 slugging in 19 games for the Brewers last season but did so largely without taking the field: He played first base just twice in those contests, and in one of them he was lifted for a defensive replacement. With the universal designated hitter no longer in play for 2021, Vogelbach’s ability to play regularly likely depends on his ability to play the field and the Brewers already have one player in camp this spring soaking up playing time at first base, Keston Hiura.

Vogelbach’s other path onto the Brewers’ (or another team’s) roster is to hit enough this spring that his bat forces his manager to find room for him to play, but that possibility got off to a rough start on Sunday as he rolled over on three easy ground balls, causing White Sox broadcaster Steve Stone to acknowledge that teams will likely shift their infield against him all season.

Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby

Expanding back from 60 to 162 games is likely to require Craig Counsell and the Brewers to work creatively and shuffle arms in and out to manage an expanded workload. A big spring from either or both of the Brewers’ top pitching prospects would likely put them in that mix.

2020 would have been Small’s first full professional season, but he was already an advanced talent when he joined the Brewers organization as a 22-year-old first round pick in 2019. The Brewers took it slow with him in acknowledgement of his heavy college workload in his pro debut season, but he quickly wowed onlookers with his mix of fastballs and changeups and his ability to work up and down in the strike zone. If the Brewers feel he’s ready for the workload he could slot into the rotation later this year or, more likely, join the team as a reliever for the stretch run. He worked a scoreless fifth inning on Sunday.

Ashby was a fourth round pick in the 2018 draft and has a little more professional experience than Small, having worked a full minor league season between Low-A Wisconsin and High-A Carolina in 2019. From the start of his pro career, he’s demonstrated excellent breaking pitches, and has the capacity to be dominant at times. Ashby’s biggest weakness at times has been command when pitching with runners on base, so it was encouraging when he was able to strike out the last two batters after a walk and a fielding error in the sixth inning on Sunday.

In recent years the Brewers have demonstrated a clear willingness to cycle through a lot of pitchers to keep fresh arms and favorable matchups available to Craig Counsell. If Ashby or Small demonstrate the ability to perform this spring in Phoenix, it might give them a leg up when the organization is looking for someone to pitch in Milwaukee this summer and fall.