Kirsten Schmitt/Brewers
Two batters into Sunday's game against the Phillies, Chase Anderson was already in trouble. The situation, unfortunately, was not unusual.
Anderson allowed Cesar Hernandez to single and Rhys Hoskins to homer, and the Brewers were down 2-0 before they had recorded an out. He eventually rebounded to get out of the inning without further damage, but it continued a worrisome trend for him. Even before Sunday's game Anderson had allowed 11 runs in the first inning of his 13 starts this season, and opposing batters had an .887 OPS against him during those innings. With Sunday’s results included Anderson now has an 8.36 ERA in the first and a 3.69 mark over the remainder of his innings.
It makes sense, of course, that any pitcher would be a little worse than the norm during the first inning. It's the only inning where pitchers are guaranteed to face the top three batters in an opposing lineup. It’s also, at least historically, a time when pitchers have been taught to establish their fastball and avoid using their secondary pitches against hitters they’ll face multiple times again over the course of the game. The numbers confirm that suspicion: In 2018 MLB pitchers have a 4.63 ERA in the first frame, as compared to a 4.04 mark overall.
That makes it all the more impressive that, even with Anderson, Brewers pitchers have actually been better in the first inning than the others. Baseball Reference's tOPS+ statistic measures players or teams in certain situations against their overall performances. Entering play Sunday the Brewers were one of just nine teams with a tOPS+ under 100 in the first inning, meaning hitters fared worse against them in their first opportunity than they did later in games.
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A deeper look into the numbers further highlights Anderson's first inning struggles: A 100 tOPS+ would imply that a player's performance in a given situation is roughly neutral as compared to his overall numbers. Anderson (151) is the only regular member of the Brewers rotation rated above 100 in this category, coming in about 51% worse than his overall numbers would suggest. There's a big gap between him and the next three regulars: Junior Guerra (84) Brent Suter (63) and Jhoulys Chacin (62).
Finding too much of the plate in the first inning isn’t a new problem for Anderson: Hoskins’ home run on Sunday was the 22nd Anderson has allowed in the first in his career, easily the most of any inning. For his career he’s allowed about 1.3 home runs per nine innings across all appearances, but in the first it climbs to 1.7. Hitters are also making a lot of contact against Anderson overall, with a swinging strike rate of just 8.1%, and when they make contact they’re hitting the ball hard.
Of course, it's important to note that there are very small sample sizes at play here. Anderson's first inning numbers are based on just 66 plate appearances over 14 innings pitched from a sample of more than 75. One of Anderson's teammates is a great example of how quickly trends like this can change: Opposing batters had a .916 OPS against Zach Davies in the first inning in 2016, .809 in 2017 and .529 this season. Small sample sizes make it possible for wild fluctuations in numbers like this.
Anderson, however, is aware of his first inning struggles and discussed them with reporters following Sunday’s game. Whether this is a real issue or simply a function of bad luck and timing remains to be determined, but Anderson’s shot at being a long-term member of the top of the Brewers’ rotation may depend on his ability to get off to stronger starts.
