Despite Setbacks, Brewers Starting Pitchers Still Average More than 5 1/3 Innings of Work per Game

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Photo: Freddy Peralta - Twitter

Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta

Two games, roughly four years apart, tell the story of an interesting trend in Brewers starting pitching.

On June 29, 2018, the Brewers led the Reds 2-1 after six innings. Starting pitcher Chase Anderson had cruised through two thirds of the game allowing minimal damage: He had faced just three Reds batters in each of the second, third, fourth and fifth innings, but had allowed a solo home run in the sixth. Despite the fact that he had thrown just 76 pitches and his spot in the batting order wasn’t due up, Craig Counsell lifted him from the game and went to the bullpen. Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Dan Jennings took it from there and the Brewers piled on late to win 8-2. Anderson was lifted with 90 pitches or fewer in 21 of his 30 starts that season.

On Thursday of last week in a game against the Cardinals, Craig Counsell was faced with a similar decision. Rookie starting pitcher Jason Alexander had held the Cardinals to three runs over five innings, giving up a solo home run to Lars Nootbar in the fifth after cruising through the second, third and fourth frames. He had thrown 74 pitches in those first five innings and the Brewers’ top three relievers (Hader, Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger) were all available. This time, however, Counsell opted to try to get another inning out of his starter. Entering the inning with a 5-3 lead, Alexander allowed the first two batters he faced to reach and eventually gave up a sac fly that cut the Brewers’ advantage to 1 before leaving the game. The Brewers have let Alexander, a 29-year-old rookie, face batters in the sixth inning in three of his first five MLB appearances.

 Injuries and Struggles

The trend extends beyond this game: A Brewers starting rotation that was supposed to be one of this team’s greatest strengths has been forced to deviate from the plan due to injuries to Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby and some recent struggles from Adrian Houser. Even with all of those setbacks, however, Brewers starting pitchers are still averaging more than 5 1/3 innings of work per game. It’s the most they’ve averaged in a normal MLB season since 2017, and it runs counter to a game-wide trend.

The 2018 Brewers’ path to success often revolved around lifting starters early and letting an excellent and deep bullpen take games over. Brewers starters recorded an out in the seventh inning or beyond in just 12% of games that season. They averaged 5.19 innings per start, below the MLB average of 5.36, and faced 21.7 batters per game, again below the league average of 22.7.

Recent rule changes should have, in theory, eliminated some abbreviated outings from starting pitchers. The implementation of the universal DH in 2021 and the move to make the rule permanent in 2022 took away one of National League managers’ toughest decisions, no longer requiring them to consider pinch hitting for a still-effective starter in the middle innings of a game. The average starting pitcher’s outing, however, has gotten even shorter since the rule change. In 2021 pitchers who started games lasted an average of just 5.02 innings, more than a third of an inning less than 2018 and faced about a batter and a half fewer than they had just three years earlier.

Deep into the Games

In the face of that trend, however, the Brewers went in the other direction. In 2021 their starting pitchers went deeper into games than they had in 2018 and 2019, recording outs in the seventh inning of nearly 20% of all games. In 2022 they’re going deeper yet: Through Sunday the average Brewers starter is working 5.37 innings this year, about a quarter of an inning more than the league average, and they’re facing about one more batter per game than the league as a whole. This trend is holding despite the fact that Jason Alexander and Chi Chi Gonzalez have been called upon to start games recently.

Corbin Burnes’ continued emergence is almost certainly a factor in these numbers. A year ago Burnes won the NL Cy Young despite questions about his workload: He made just 28 starts in 2021 and averaged just under six innings in each of them for a final total of 167, just barely enough to qualify for the National League ERA title. This season he’s on pace to make all of his starts and he’s logged almost 6 1/3 innings per start. He’s among the NL leaders in innings pitched and could become the first Brewer ever to lead a league in strikeouts.

Behind Burnes, however, the Brewers have been forced to mix-and-match and endure hot and cold streaks from the pitchers who have remained healthy. Despite some inconsistency and their need to rely upon some unlikely contributors, the Brewers are opting to roll the dice and let their starters stay in games longer than both their own recent selves and their leaguewide peers.