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As the MLB calendar flips over to June this week it’s possible teams will consider an earlier-than-normal shift to trade season.
While the MLB trade deadline is still two full months away on August 2, baseball’s current collection of haves and have-nots creates a climate where deals could happen much sooner.
Even with an expanded postseason, as of Sunday night FanGraphs had 10 MLB teams, a full third of the league, with a less than a two percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Three others are between two and 10 percent. With a couple of exceptions, most of these teams came into the season with low expectations and have performed at roughly their expected level. With as many as 13 teams that could be looking to sell between now and the end of July, it might make sense for some of them to beat the rush.
Meanwhile, a team that adds early gets the added bonus of having the player they’re paying to acquire for an extra month or more. Longtime Brewers fans will remember this being a talking point in favor of the Brewers’ trade for CC Sabathia in early July in 2008, and it remains true. For teams acquiring players on expiring contracts, getting a player for three or four months is significantly more valuable than having that same player for two. MLB.com has already compiled a list of possible major moves that could come in the weeks and months ahead.
The Brewers will almost certainly be involved in trade talks this season, although they enter those discussions in a solid position: They’re the clear favorite to win the NL Central at this point, and when healthy their lineup, starting rotation and priority bullpen have few glaring needs. Given their solid footing and their relatively low position in the farm system rankings, it’s unlikely the Brewers will be a heavy factor in any of the summer’s top trade talks. They could still look to upgrade, however, in the following spots:
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Utility infield
On paper the Brewers largely have all the spots filled on their infield: Rowdy Tellez is having a breakout year at first base and Kolten Wong, Willy Adames and Luis Urias play nearly every day at the other positions, when healthy. With that said, the Brewers have already endured absences from both Urias and Adames, leaving Mike Brosseau and Jace Peterson to cover third base significantly more often than not. That duo has an on-base plus slugging just over .600 in 40 games playing third this season.
While Adames has expressed a clear preference to play every day when he’s able to do so, the Brewers’ ability to remain productive through a long season likely requires some ability to mix and match lineups. An upgrade in the infield would go a long way to give Craig Counsell some options.
Center field
Lorenzo Cain hit his first home run of the season on Sunday, but the Brewers still might be nearing a tough conversation regarding one of their veteran leaders. Cain is batting .198 with limited power this season and both Tim Muma of Brewer Fanatic and Todd Rosiak of the Journal Sentinel have highlighted the 36-year-old’s struggles in the final season of his contract. It’s a touchy thing to reduce the role of one of the team’s clubhouse leaders, but at some point they may have to broach the issue.
Cain’s struggles and Hunter Renfroe’s injury have left the Crew with limited options in the outfield, an example of how quickly a positional logjam can become the opposite. Cain and Tyrone Taylor are the Brewers’ only options in center field unless they’re willing to put Andrew McCutchen out there, something he hasn’t done since 2019. Adding an outfielder with some positional flexibility would, again, give Craig Counsell more choices.
With all of this said, the Brewers’ track record under current leadership suggests they might be more interested in trading for the best available value than in filling specific needs. The most successful teams of the David Stearns’ era have often finished the season with players filling unusual roles in response to an unexpected move.
Whether the Brewers are dealing for a specific purpose or just accumulating valuable pieces, however, it seems likely they’ll be active. They’ve made 11 trades in June and July of the last three full MLB seasons (excluding 2020), and there’s no reason to believe they’ll be less active this year.
