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When baseball eventually returns from its offseason work stoppage the Brewers are still going to have some work left to do to plug the holes in their offense.
Milwaukee finished sixth in the National League with 738 runs scored in 2021 but did it in a streaky and often frustrating fashion: They scored one run or less in 28 different regular season games, four more than any other National League playoff team. Their .233 team batting average ranked 14th among 15 NL clubs, and their 1465 strikeouts were the fourth most in the league.
The Brewers still rode patience and power to some level of success: They were third in the National League in walks and eighth in home runs. Overall, however, their .713 on-base plus slugging only ranked eleventh in the league and, again, came in a very streaky fashion. While it isn’t reflected in those numbers, the Brewers’ vulnerability to long cold stretches was on full display in the NLDS when they batted .192 with a .263 on-base and .264 slugging across four games against the Braves. They struck out in 48 of their 125 at bats in the series.
Not a Solution
To date the Brewers’ biggest offseason acquisition has been outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe does some things well, but he’s not a solution to this particular weakness. While he hit 31 home runs for Boston in 2021, Renfroe is also the owner of a career .297 on-base percentage across over 2000 major league plate appearances. He lowered his strikeout rate to just over 22% last season but still had an on-base percentage of just .305 in what might have been the most valuable season of his career to date. He’s also been extremely good against left-handed pitching, but against righties over the course of his career he’s hit a much more pedestrian .225 with a .272 on-base and .459 slugging.
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This is a need the Brewers could look to address when free agency resumes following the lockout, but their budget is unclear and choices are limited. Beyond an elite group of free agents outside of the Brewers’ usual shopping range (Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Kris Bryant) there aren’t a lot of possible targets that would move the needle on this front.
Sports Illustrated’s list of the top 25 remaining free agents lists the Brewers as a likely landing spot for just one player, former Mariners and Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Cruz’s fit as a Brewer depends on his interest in continuing to play into his 40’s, the possibility that the National League will adopt the designated hitter rule in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the Brewers’ willingness to meet his contractual demands. Even if all of those stars align, there’s also the fact that Cruz turns 42 in July and his on-base skills dropped noticeably during the second half of his age 41 season with the Rays in 2021.
Reason to Hope
There’s also reason to hope that the Brewers can improve on this front without making any additions at all. They’ve changed hitting coaches this winter, and it’s possible a new approach could help some of the team’s recent underperforming hitters get back to form. Christian Yelich is the Brewers’ most obvious bounce-back candidate, but he’s far from the only one: Keston Hiura and Lorenzo Cain could also go a long way towards improving the Brewers’ offense and consistency if they can approach their previous performances.
It’s also worth noting that the Brewers aren’t the only team experiencing this problem. MLB’s leaguewide batting average dropped to .244 in 2021, the lowest it had been in any season since 1968. The leaguewide on-base percentage also dropped to .317 in 2021, the lowest it had been in seven years and down 20 points from its 2006 level. Until 2010 MLB had never had a season where teams averaged more than seven strikeouts per game, but in 2021 they averaged 8.68. Across the sport it’s an extremely difficult time to put the ball in play and reach base right now, and any evaluation of a team’s offense has to take that into account.
With that said, the Brewers’ streaks of difficulty on offense were a major source of frustration in 2021 and, barring some significant changes after the lockout, it’s a trend that’s likely to carry over to 2022.
