The Brewers After Arizona

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It remains to be seen if the Brewers will have much at stake this September as a group, but individually they have several players with a lot to gain or lose in the season’s final weeks. 

The Brewers’ hopes of winning the NL Central are all but over after a disastrous weekend in Arizona, where they lost three of four to the Diamondbacks to fall eight and a half games back of the Cardinals with 29 games to play. They’re also two and a half games back of the Phillies, but effectively it counts as three because the Phillies hold the tiebreaker (MLB eliminated tiebreaker games in this year’s new collective bargaining agreement).

Even if the Brewers find themselves outside of the postseason picture in the season’s final weeks, however, September and October will still be important as a final opportunity to make a statement for players hoping to catch on with this or another team in 2023. The Brewers have several position players that would be well served to take advantage of that opportunity:

Omar Narvaez and Victor Caratini

The final weeks of this season could be Omar Narvaez’s last in a Brewers uniform, and he’s had quite the roller coaster since coming to Milwaukee in December of 2019. Narvaez was all but unplayable offensively during the abbreviated 2020 season, earned a spot on the All Star team in the first half in 2021 but struggled after the break and has struggled to stay on the field at all in 2022. He’s due to become a free agent following the season, and the .688 on-base plus slugging he’s posted across three seasons as a Brewer is significantly lower than the numbers he put up previously with the Mariners and White Sox. His next contract could be partially determined by how he finishes this season. 

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Victor Caratini, meanwhile, was a last second addition to the Brewers’ roster, has played more often than Narvaez this season and has equaled his performance offensively. While Narvaez is expected to hit free agency this October, Caratini still has one season of arbitration eligibility remaining and could make a case for a more prominent role on the 2023 team with a big closing month.

The Brewers’ two primary catchers have both been relatively limited offensive performers this season, with each posting on-base plus slugging totals well under .700. In concept that would make the position a popular target for an upgrade but it’s not as easy as it appears: FanGraphs ranks the Brewers’ current catching corps, offensive shortcomings and all, as the tenth best in the sport.

Keston Hiura

He’s spent much of the season without a clear role, but Keston Hiura’s bat may force the issue this offseason. Hiura’s .829 on-base plus slugging makes him one of the Brewers’ best regulars at the plate, and his .955 mark since July 1 makes it difficult to justify keeping him out of the lineup.

Hiura’s defensive limitations mean the Brewers would likely have to build any plan for the future around him: He’s unlikely to see regular playing time at second base, has just a handful of innings of experience in the outfield and would have to unseat Rowdy Tellez to play frequently at first base, meaning he’d have to DH often. If he can put up another strong month, however, he’ll finish the season with offensive numbers that could force the Brewers or someone else to find a way to regularly get him into their lineup.

Tyrone Taylor, Garrett Mitchell and Esteury Ruiz

The Brewers’ short and long-term plans in center field are likely to be another of the offseason’s big questions, and Taylor, Mitchell and Ruiz are likely all competing for next season’s playing time during their time on the field this fall.

Taylor has been the Brewers’ best defensive outfielder this season and had a big home run in their only win over the weekend, but the emergence of several of the organization’s top prospects might make him expendable in the long term: He’ll be 29 before next season and while he’s demonstrated the ability to be a viable big-league outfielder, at some point it’s likely to become a numbers game. Mitchell and Ruiz have their first shot this fall to show the value they can add to the Brewers’ lineup with their combination of speed and defense, and if one outperforms the other, they might have a leg up on an Opening Day spot next spring.

The trio mentioned above faces an added challenge in top prospect Sal Frelick, who likely isn’t far away from making a big-league debut of his own. Frelick, Taylor, Mitchell and Ruiz are all likely at their most valuable if they’re able to play regularly in center field, and the Brewers only have so many innings out there to go around.