Photo Credit: Scott Paulas/Milwaukee Brewers
We’re only ten days away from Opening Day, but the 2017-18 MLB free agent market still isn’t closed. The list of players still looking for work includes starting pitcher Alex Cobb and reliever Greg Holland, and the list of players who have signed recently is a “Who’s Who” of guys who received less money than they expected a few months ago.
It’s impossible to tell at this point if slow free agent markets are going to become a trend or were simply a one-year aberration, but some of MLB’s mid-market players definitely have to be increasingly aware that free agency is no longer guaranteed to be the pot of gold they thought they’ve been chasing all of these years.
Already this spring we’ve seen one of the game’s biggest stars opt for greater financial security instead of rolling the dice on the market: Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, who was scheduled to become a free agent following the 2019 season, instead signed a five-year extension on Friday. It’s hard to tell if this winter’s slow market was a factor in his decision, but the ability to avoid the uncertainty several top players experienced this winter has to be a strong incentive for some players to work out long term deals at this point.
If players are indeed less likely to pursue free agency after seeing what happened to some of their peers this winter, then the Brewers are one team that could see an opportunity to work on long-term extensions for some of their young contributors. Here are a few players that could be viable targets:
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Travis Shaw
Virtually every story written about Shaw this winter has mentioned how happy Shaw and his young family are in Milwaukee. Shaw stayed in the city through the winter and has been very outspoken about the role pediatric cardiac specialists at Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin played in helping his daughter recover from a severe heart abnormality. Despite a challenging stretch off the field Shaw had a breakout year in 2017, setting career highs in nearly every offensive category.
Shaw will make something close to the league minimum after the Brewers renewed his contract as a pre-arbitration player earlier this month and will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following this season. If his performance is anything comparable to his 2018 numbers he’ll be in line for big raises in each of the next three seasons before becoming eligible for free agency in fall of 2021.
This seems to be a relatively clear case where a long-term deal could benefit everyone. The Brewers could get a level of cost certainty and perhaps buy out one or two free agent years from one of their breakout stars while Shaw could have an increased level of financial certainty and some level of assurance that he and his family will remain in a place where they’ve become comfortable.
Orlando Arcia
Arcia has now spent a little more than a full season in the big leagues since making his MLB debut in August of 2016, but he still won’t turn 24 until this August. His defense has been every bit as good as advertised but Arcia’s offensive game remains a bit of a work in progress: He batted just .227 with a .278 OBP and .360 slugging in his first 100 games in the majors (through May 27, 2017) but showed some signs of improvement in last season’s final four months, batting .294/.341/.427 over those same categories down the stretch. That last run is pretty close to the level of production he put up in his five seasons in the minors.
If Arcia continues to be the serviceable offensive player he was down the stretch last season (despite spending most of that span batting eighth), then he has an opportunity to become a very valuable all-around player. He’s also a long time away from his first big payday, however, as he won’t be arbitration-eligible for the first time until the 2020 season. As such, if they discuss a long-term deal both sides have something worth negotiating for: Arcia could get a guarantee of life-changing money while the Brewers could offer an amount of money that could represent a significant savings over what Arcia would make going year-to-year in arbitration.
Furthermore, because he reached the big leagues at a very young age Arcia is on pace to be a free agent at age 28. Signing a long term contract that delays his free agency by a year or more would not preclude him from the possibility of another big deal once he finally reaches the market.
Zach Davies
Like Shaw, Davies is inexpensive for the Brewers this season but sits on the cusp of what could be a very significant raise as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time following the season. The arbitration process could be very friendly to a pitcher like Davies, who has posted a sub-4 ERA in each of his three major league seasons to date and won 17 games in 2017. MLB front offices have largely moved past using statistics like that to evaluate pitchers, but there’s no guarantee that an arbitrator won’t use them when determining his value.
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Like Arcia, Davies reached the majors relatively young. He turned 25 in February and is on pace to reach free agency before his 29th birthday. There’s also some volatility in estimates for his long term value, however: He’s been very successful to date in the majors but his fastball velocity and strikeout rate are both below average.
Despite a wide range of possible outcomes, Davies is likely to play at least some part in the Brewers rotation for years to come unless he completely falls apart. Here again, cost certainty for the next few seasons could be a good thing for the Brewers and guaranteed financial security could do a lot for the player’s state of mind.
