Photo Credit: Ian D'Andrea
The stolen base may be one of the most exciting plays in baseball, but it is a dying art across the sport for a variety of reasons.
First, the sabermetric revolution made fans and teams increasingly aware of the cost of an unsuccessful steal attempt. Getting a speedy runner from first to second or second to third certainly increases a team’s chances of scoring a run, of course, but not as much as their chances decrease when that runner is replaced with an out.
The scales shifted further against stolen bases in recent years as noticeable upticks in pitcher velocity shaved another fraction of a second off of a baserunner’s margin for error when trying to snare an extra base. Trying to run 80-plus feet, avoid a tag and slide head first into second base was hard enough when a pitcher was throwing 85, but what was already often a bang-bang play is even harder when he’s throwing 95, which is about 15 feet per second faster.
That makes Christian Yelich’s work on the basepaths this season all the more impressive. As of Monday, Yelich had attempted 25 steals this season and reached the next base 23 times, a 92% success rate. He’s the only major league baserunner with at least 25 attempts to be caught less than 10% of the time. Mike Trout was the only player in baseball to do it in 2018 (24 for 26), and he was one of just three players to do it since 2014. In the midst of his success, however, Yelich might have become a textbook example of another argument against stolen bases.
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Yelich missed all but one start during the Brewers’ six games against Pittsburgh and Texas while dealing with the latest instance of recurring bouts of back stiffness. Craig Counsell told reporters that Yelich is fine swinging the bat, but “starts on running” seem to be causing his pain. It may be telling that Yelich stole four bases in a span of four games from July 13-16 but hasn’t attempted one since.
Yelich’s performance during the last month backs up the assertion that his back is not an issue at the plate. He’s batted .359 with a .410 on-base percentage, .696 slugging and eight home runs in his last 100 plate appearances, providing a reliable offensive output at a time when the Brewers’ bats haven’t always found it elsewhere. He was only held hitless in one of his 22 games in July.
While Yelich seems locked in at the plate, however, his bad back has cost him some opportunities. He’s been held out of the starting lineup in 17 of the Brewers’ 119 games this season. The Brewers have weathered his absences, going 10-5 when he doesn’t start, but given their choice they’d almost certainly rather have him in the game nearly every day.
FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement statistic suggests Yelich has contributed about 49 extra runs at the plate this season, nearly as many as he accumulated in his entire 2018 MVP season (52.6). His baserunning, despite his exceptional success rate on steals, is valued at just 4.4 runs above replacement. Put another way, Yelich has made the Brewers nearly five wins better with his bat this season, but less than half-a-win better on the bases.
It should go without saying that the Brewers are a better team with the reigning National League MVP in the lineup than they are without him. If slowing down a bit on the basepaths keeps Christian Yelich healthy and available to play more often for the stretch run, then it’s almost certainly the right call.
