Photo Credit: Scott Paulus
Freddy Peralta’s MLB star is rapidly ascending and if it keeps going at this pace it could create a challenging situation for the Brewers down the stretch.
Peralta burst onto the MLB scene with a spectacular spot start on baseball’s toughest stage in Colorado and his performance has been nothing short of magical since, as he’s allowed just six hits and recorded 25 strikeouts in his first 15 2/3 innings in the majors. Until the rains came in Pittsburgh late last week he was expected to make his Miller Park debut on Sunday. Certainly, a big home crowd would have been excited to see Peralta for the first time. In the grand scheme, however, pushing his outing back and continuing to do so whenever possible could pay dividends down the road.
It’s worth remembering that Peralta is in the big leagues well ahead of schedule. Two years ago at this time Peralta was in Low-A, pitching in the Midwest League All Star Game. The Brewers pitched him in a tandem in the low minors much of that season, limiting his young arm to just 82 innings. They followed that up by being very aggressive with him in 2017, advancing him to the AA level for the first time and allowing him to pitch 120 innings. 2017 was Peralta’s age 21 season.
Each year Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated tracks young pitchers whose inning counts grow by more than 30 from year to year as a warning sign for increased injury risk. The methodology has been criticized over the years, but the concept makes sense: Young pitchers asked to exert themselves far beyond their previous experience level would seem more likely to end up injuring themselves while doing so.
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Seeing as he already went up by 38 innings in 2017, the Brewers would almost certainly be taking an enormous risk by ramping up Peralta’s workload significantly again in 2018. The organization hasn’t stated and likely won’t publicly state a goal for Peralta’s 2018 inning count, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 145-150 would seem like a logical cap given his young age and rapid development.
And there lies the problem: Less than halfway through the season, Peralta has already thrown 74 2/3 innings combined between Colorado Springs and Milwaukee. If he continues to pitch well it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the major league rotation, but if he continues in that role he’s going to have to be closely monitored and kept on a short leash to avoid an early shutdown or another massive jump in innings. That’s a tough balance to reach for a Brewers team that’s trying to contend and, looking ahead, would probably also like to have Peralta available for potential postseason play.
Critics, of course, look down upon the steps taken to help protect young pitchers’ careers and speak disparagingly of pitch counts and innings limits, noting that both were often disregarded in the recent past. The Brewers have a pair of cautionary tales related to the old ways of handling young pitchers: Juan Nieves suffered a rotator cuff injury in 1988 and never pitched in the majors again after racking up nearly 500 MLB innings before the end of his age 23 season, and Cal Eldred’s career was dramatically altered by injury shortly after he led the American League with 36 starts, 258 innings pitched and 1087 batters faced in his age 25 season in 1993.
It’s always a great story when a player makes an impact in the majors earlier than expected, and it’d be an even better story if Freddy Peralta can do that while also helping propel the Brewers towards the postseason. The Brewers, however, can’t forget about his future while working to succeed in the present.
