Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Brewers’ first new major league contract of the winter could not have been more predictable: Eric Sogard was inexpensive, his plate discipline was a welcome addition to a largely “swing and miss” lineup and he seemed to legitimately enjoy being in Milwaukee, so re-signing him for another campaign was something of a no-brainer. The Brewers appear poised to announce their second major league deal of the winter this week, however, and it’s a move no one saw coming.
Yovani Gallardo has a long history with the Brewers, both positive and negative. He’s the franchise’s all-time leader in strikeouts (1226), ranks among the leaders in several other categories and is the only Brewers starting pitcher selected to an All Star Game in the last ten seasons. He was also the source of a fair amount of fan frustration during his Brewers tenure for his struggles to pitch deep into games, not to mention off the field issues that included a DUI arrest in 2013.
Gallardo is one of just nine remaining active players from the Brewers’ 2008 Wild Card team, but his career appeared to be hanging by a thread a few months ago when the Mariners bumped him from their rotation and asked him to pitch in relief for the first time since 2007. Gallardo had a 5.72 ERA with Seattle in 2017 after posting a 5.42 mark with Baltimore in 2016 and over those two seasons his walk (4.4 per nine innings), strikeout (6.5 per nine) and home run (1.4 per nine) rates have all trended in the wrong direction.
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Gallardo is still only 31 years old, however, and if he passes a physical he’s about to fill the last vacant spot on the Brewers’ 40-man roster. As Tom Haudricourt noted on Sunday all indications suggest he’s healthy: His average fastball in 2017 (92.2 mph) was multiple ticks faster than in 2016. MLB.com’s Statcast data suggests that his fastball speed, spin rate and average exit velocity are all roughly in line with league averages. He used the pitch significantly less often in 2017, though, instead leaning much more heavily on his curveball and changeup. He all but abandoned the latter pitch during his Brewers tenure.
The early projection models for 2018 haven’t been able to find much cause for optimism in Gallardo’s case: Both the Depth Charts and Steamer systems at FanGraphs and the Marcels data at Baseball Reference have Gallardo with an earned run average above 5.00 for the season ahead. Those numbers could get a small boost as Gallardo moves from the American to the National League, but they would nonetheless suggest that he’s unlikely to be even an average starting pitcher going forward. When the Brewers are finally able to announce the Gallardo signing it will be interesting to hear what they have to say about it. Perhaps they saw something in his performance and/or statistics to suggest his true talent level is better than what his numbers would indicate.
It’s possible Gallardo chose Milwaukee in an effort to get back to the level of success he experienced during his previous eight-year tenure with the team. It’s worth noting, however, that this is more of a fresh start than a reunion: Since the Brewers traded Gallardo in January of 2015 their general manager, assistant general manager, manager and pitching coach positions have all turned over. Of the four, only Craig Counsell has any history with Gallardo and that comes from his time as a player.
Given his recent career trends it’s unlikely that Yovani Gallardo will be the Brewers’ ace in 2018 and it would be unfair and unrealistic of the Brewers to expect that kind of performance from him. He’s an interesting gamble as a reclamation project, however, provided the organization hasn’t invested too much in him.
