Bucks 2018 Playoff Preview: Golden Opportunity Brewing in Milwaukee?

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After a long and grueling regular season, Fear The Deer season is officially upon us as the Milwaukee Bucks will make their second consecutive appearance in the NBA playoffs. Despite finishing with a 44-38 record, a two-game improvement from last season, the Deer enter this post-season as the seventh seed after a forgetful regular season finale against the 16-game win-streaking Philadelphia 76ers. Whether or not Milwaukee truly came to play Wednesday night trying to manipulate their seeding remains a mystery. The fact of the matter is they got their wish, so to speak, and will meet a depleted Boston Celtics squad that appears to be in a vulnerable state without their star Kyrie Irving. From trading for Eric Bledsoe to firing Jason Kidd to welcoming back Jabari Parker, here’s a recap of the wild road the Bucks have taken to get to this point.

To say the Deer have gone through a lot this season would be an understatement. They’ve been battle-tested since day one and until game 82, didn’t enter a game with a completely healthy roster from top to bottom. Nevermind not showing up in their 35-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday night, it was good to see everyone back in the lineup and leave the game with no injuries heading into Sunday’s playoff opener. The most important piece being last year’s rookie of the year Malcolm Brogdon, who was able to log 32 minutes over the last two games while scoring 13 points in the finale as he gets re-acclimated into the rotation.

As important as it is to finally get healthy, it’s another thing to go out and put it all together on the court. Even though they are led by two-time All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who enters this series as the clear-cut best player on the floor, the deer will still have a steep mountain to climb as the underdog of this series. Sure they have guys with playoff experience, but only Jason Terry and Matthew Dellavedova have experienced the gauntlet of going all the way. Guys like Eric Bledsoe, Tyler Zeller, Tony Snell and even Brandon Jennings have all made it out of the first round at least once. While guys like Giannis, Khris Middleton, and John Henson still search for that first playoff series victory, there are plenty of vets on this roster who know how to win and that should be enough to motivate this year’s team to finally get over the hump.

Just as Milwaukee gets everyone back and ready to go, the opposite can be said for a 55-win Celtics team that will be missing three key pieces in Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward, who is still recovering from a gruesome ankle injury stemming back to the season opener. It’s not the ideal spot to be in, but at the same time, they haven’t made any excuses, which is why they are in this position. Leading them will be veteran center Al Horford, point guard Terry Rozier, and young studs Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum along with former Buck Greg Monroe providing some much-needed frontcourt depth. The key to Boston’s success can be attributed to their top-tier team defense along with their ability to share the ball well offensively and knocking down the three ball.

Let's take a closer look at the first playoff matchup between these teams since the 1986-87 season.

(2) Boston Celtics (55-27) vs. (7) Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)

Boston’s Probable Starters:

PG – Terry Rozier

SG – Jaylen Brown

SF – Jayson Tatum^

PF – Al Horford*

C – Aron Baynes

Milwaukee’s Probable Starters:

PG – Eric Bledsoe

SG – Tony Snell

SF – Khris Middleton

PF – Giannis Antetokounmpo*

C – John Henson

*All-Star

^Rookie

When you look back at the 2-2 season series split between these two teams, the Bucks drew first blood in Boston’s home opener before the Celtics took the next two games behind strong showings from Kyrie Irving, who scored 56 points over the course of both those Celtic wins. Fortunately for the Bucks, those first three games don’t matter as much as their latest matchup, which came just a week and a half ago back at the BMO Harris Bradley Center with the Deer prevailing 106-102 behind a strong 29-point, 11-rebound, and 6-assist outing from Giannis Antetokounmpo.

"I think we match up well with them," Antetokounmpo would say post-game. "It doesn't matter really who we're going to see."

Giannis is right. On paper, Milwaukee’s talent should out-match the short-handed Celtics heading into this series. No one even comes close to the Greek Freak’s status while Eric Bledsoe, who’s vaulted his level of play to another level since the All-Star break, should be able to outduel Terry Rozier at the point guard position. On the wing, Khris Middleton has had plenty of consistent success this season averaging 20.1 points per game but he and Tony Snell will have their hands full against youngsters Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who have been playing well beyond their ages of 21 and 20, respectively.

Even though Al Horford is a respectable two-way player, it’s going to take an insurmountable effort for him to slow down Giannis and will need to be careful not to wear himself out in order contribute on the offensive end. John Henson’s length should be a problem but his overall strength could hurt him as he battles for rebounds with Aron Baynes and the rest of the Boston’s bigs.

Advantage: Milwaukee. They just have too much firepower to offer with the marquee three of Giannis, Bledsoe, and Middleton. Don’t sleep on Brown and Tatum, though, as they have the ability to be difference makers while it wouldn’t be surprising if Middleton and/or Snell disappear at times during this series.

Bench

Despite being heavily short-handed, Boston has adopted the next man up philosophy pretty well. One guy who has been a prominent fixture in leading the second unit is Marcus Morris, who has been forced to carry an even heavier scoring load in Kyrie’s absence. The addition of former Buck Greg Monroe, who was traded to Phoenix in the Bledsoe trade and then subsequently bought out, has been a godsend to the Celtics front lineup. His ability to provide instant offense is no secret, but his assist numbers have definitely opened some eyes as well. Brad Stevens has also been able to plug in other guys like Shane Larkin and Semi Ojeleye when he needs that extra spark.

Milwaukee’ bench, on the other hand, has been hit or miss all season long as different names have filtered in and out of the lineup with injuries having a lot to do with it. Jabari Parker returned after missing the first 50 games and has played well at times showing flashes of that freaky athleticism while providing a much-needed scoring lift the second unit has desperately craved. After both backup point guards Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova went down with injuries of their own, Milwaukee turned to an old friend in former top 10 pick Brandon Jennings, who has brought a humble and hungry approach to the team as a high energy playmaker off the bench during the second half of the season.

Beyond that, the Bucks have thrown in guys like 40-year-old vet Jason Terry, who still competes his tail off every time he steps on the floor, and rookie Sterling Brown as spark plugs along with big Tyler Zeller, who was acquired at the trade deadline from Brooklyn. Zeller’s presence has been better than expected as he even surpassed struggling second-year backup center Thon Maker for playing time. Even before dealing with injuries later in the season, it was clear that Maker was still having trouble developing game physically and mentally while looking lost a lot of the time on the defensive end. Another guy to keep an eye on is Shabazz Muhammed, who was signed in March and has quietly given the Bucks a poor man’s version of Michael Beasley as a guy who can simply put the basketball in the hoop when called upon.

Advantage: Slightly Boston. After thinking about it more, it was closer than you might think. Milwaukee has more talent on its bench but Boston’s second unit has just been a little bit more stable and had more consistent contributions throughout the season.

Coaching Prowess

Milwaukee’s biggest disadvantage by far comes in the coaching department. No disrespect to interim head coach Joe Prunty, but Celtics’ head coach Brad Stevens is undoubtedly one of the brightest minds in all of the NBA having instilled an all-around team system that has worked since his days at Butler University. He gets his guys to buy into his philosophy no matter who the player is or what he is asking of them. Stevens puts his team in the best position to win and doesn’t care about any player’s age or status in the league.

Even if Milwaukee hadn’t fired Jason Kidd for underperforming and making constant excuses, this still wouldn’t even be close. Prunty has done a respectable job keeping this team afloat and guiding the Bucks to this point by keeping a positive attitude around at all times. He’s even reverted from Kidd’s stubborn over-zealous defense that got them in trouble at times, but they still struggled to close out many winnable games with questionable late-game decision-making.

Advantage: Clearly Boston. This is going to make or break the series. Sure, Milwaukee has the talent to overtake the Celtics but if Boston does, in fact, win this series, it will be because of Stevens. He’s too smart and will always find a way to be one step ahead of his counterpart. Unless Prunty pulls out some tricks from his time back in the day under coach Gregg Popovich in San Antonio, I’m afraid Stevens is going to make him look silly in his playoff debut as a head coach.

Series Prediction

Whether or not you believe in curses is one thing but that fact of the matter is that the Milwaukee Bucks still haven’t found a way to win a playoff series since they traded Ray Allen after the 2001 season. Seventeen years and seven playoff appearances later, the Bucks understand they have a chance to do something special in their first round matchup this year against the Celtics. They also know that they have a golden opportunity in front of them with Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward out of the lineup. Giannis is another year older and knows what it feels like to have an opportunity slip away after being up 2-1 against the Raptors in last year’s playoffs.

That said, Milwaukee has had its issues playing up to their potential and hasn’t been consistent on both ends of the floor; especially when it comes down to three-point shooting. Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league in three-point defense while Boston is near the top. That is going to have to change dramatically for the Bucks to have a chance at the upset and there are plenty of reasons to believe they can make it happen. Bledsoe and Middleton have been better players the second half of the season and they finally have an empty injury report for the first time in what feels like years. Boston is exceptionally vulnerable at this stage in the season due to their injuries but they are so well coached to the point where it almost doesn’t even matter. Milwaukee got the first round matchup they wanted and hopefully it doesn’t come back to bite them. Who am I if I don’t pick the Deer to win this series? BUCKS IN 6!