Get ready for the Milwaukee Bucks bandwagon to overflow during the 2015-2016 season. This is the best Bucks team since Ray Allen, Glen Robinson, and Sam Cassell wore the purple and green.
Milwaukee was tremendously understimated again by the national media.This is the last preseason in which that will happen during the Jason Kidd era. Amin Elhassan of TrueHoop TV summed up the sentiment of most major news outlets in a recent video preview: "We expect them to be a superlative defensive outfit, but could this team lead the league in defense and be worst at offense? Cause there's not a lot of spacing on their roster." You could put together a five minute supercut of pundits saying the word "spacing" when talking about the Bucks.
The Best Offense is a Good Defense
(And not turning the ball over doesn't hurt.)
Zach Lowe of Grantland recently wrote a piece entitled '35 Crazy Predictions for the 2015-16 NBA Season,' in which he made the bold claim that the Bucks would miss the playoffs this year. Don't get me wrong- Zach Lowe is one of the best NBA writers around- but the idea that a Milwaukee team that made the playoffs last season that is adding two players who will prove to be their best offensive weapons will miss the playoffs due to taking a step back on offense is insane.
Lowe pointed to the team's faltering offense after swapping Brandon "Hero Ball" Knight for Michael Carter-Williams and the loss of Jared Dudley, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia over the off-season. Spacing is the idea that having players who can spread out and make shots from anywhere on the court is imperative to a team's success in the current climate of the 3-point crazed NBA. (Did you know that the 2014-2015 season saw the most three-point attempts of any season in NBA history, by far?)
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The Memphis Grizzlies have disproved the importance of spacing time and time again, as they have been successful in the wildly competitive Western Conference for years while always finishing near the bottom of the league in long range shooting. The way they do it? Exceptional defense and post play. Two things that this incarnation of the Bucks will also excel at.
Last season, the Bucks were second in the NBA in forcing turnovers, and second overall in defensive efficiency. As the team matures, they will become increasingly adept at running the fast break and moving at a quicker tempo. The team has been built to Kidd's specifications, and will be a defensive juggernaut that uses its speed and passing to generate high percentage shots on the offensive end, aka the Memphis Grizzlies of the Eastern Conference.
The biggest area for improvement for the Bucks offense this season is limiting turnovers, as the Bucks finished second-worst in the NBA last season in turnovers committed. It's more important that MCW is able to have a strong assist-to-turnover ratio this season than it is for him to start knocking down outside jumpers.
Let's take a closer look at the 2015-16 Milwaukee Bucks roster, starting with the aforementioned Michael Carter-Williams.
Point Guard- Michael Carter-Williams
We Don't Need No Stinkin Threes
What Kidd didn't like about Brandon Knight was that Knight was a shoot-first point guard who stopped the ball and often created one man possessions. Kidd knows that for a young team to become great, it needs to run an unselfish offense that doesn't depend too much on one player, and can develop chemistry on the offensive end.
Kidd went out of his way to jettison Knight and get Michael Carter-Williams. Though MCW will likely never become a great shooter, he is a great pupil for Kidd, who was also a cerebral over-sized point guard who struggled shooting from deep early in his career, but still transformed into a perennial All-Star because of his ability to run an offense, rebound, and play stellar defense.
MCW had the misfortune of spending the first couple years of his career with an historically bad Philadelphia 76ers team, where his progress was stagnated by a lack of organizational integrity or scheme. Playing for Kidd in Milwaukee, look for Carter-Williams assist numbers to skyrocket as he becomes an even better passer and gets used to playing with his new teammates. Last year, after joining the Bucks, MCW averaged 5.6 assists per game, but also averaged 3.2 turnovers per contest. Look for that assist number to climb above 7 and the turnover number to climb below 2.5 in the 2015-16 season.
Carter-Williams seems well-aware of the challenge. When asked how he is developing his skills as a floor-leader during NBATV's Real Training Camp this summer, he responded "I talk to coach Kidd a lot, I watch a lot of film of his to see how he directed people, figuring out when's a good time to get somebody the ball, who's hot, what spot people like to get the ball... so there are a number of things, and it might take a little time for us to really gel, but we have trust in each other, so that makes it easy."
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Shooting Guard- Khris Middleton
The Most Underrated Buck
If anyone on the Bucks roster is trustworthy, it's Khris Middleton. Under the radar, Middleton has become a top-5 shooting guard in the NBA. In fact, he was the second most valuable shooting guard in the league last season based on WAR, behind only James Harden. His team was 6.3 points better on offense and 9.2 points better on defense in 2014-2015 with Middleton on the court.
The Bucks lucked out this offseason in locking Middleton up long-term for a relatively cheap price (5 years, $70 million, which looks even better compared to glorified bench player Tristan Thompson's 5 year, $82 million deal from the Cavaliers.)
Middleton can do everything. He can shoot from anywhere on the court. He can use his size to score in the low post. He disrupts passing lanes with his length and defensive instincts. He's the team's best perimeter defender. And he's willing to do the dirty work.
It's also worth it to mention that he's not afraid of Jimmy Butler:
Small Forward- Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Complete Package
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece about just how high Giannis Antetokounmpo's ceiling is (it's essentially non-existent.)
Although Giannis is still about five years from his prime, he should take his place as one of the NBA's elite wings this season. He is gifted with great physical tools, and as he begins to eliminate errors caused by inexperience and refine the technical side of his game, he'll become downright scary.
Giannis has shown a lot of development this off-season, showing off his vastly improved shooting form and posting a career-high 17 rebounds while playing for Greece. Everyone knew Giannis would be an above-average rebounder, but if he is able to keep defenses honest with his jumper, he becomes a nightmarish match-up for opposing offenses.
Defensively, Giannis stuffs the stat sheet. He is adept at getting blocks on the help side, he has the length and strength to rebound with the best of them, and he has shown increased dexterity and timing in deflecting passes and getting steals. He's the type of guy who will average 3 blocks and 3 steals per game in his prime. His determination to be the best on the defensive end doesn't show up in the stat sheet, but he's more determined on the defensive end of the floor than most NBA players.
Plus, he will frequently make plays like the one below and get the Bucks exposure on the Sportscenter Top 10 on a nightly basis.
Power Forward- Jabari Parker
A Highly Anticipated Return
The most intriguing aspect of the Bucks is that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not the only player on the team destined to be one of the NBA's elite. Jabari Parker is determined to fulfill his potential as well.
When Jabari Parker went down with a devastating ACL injury last December during his rookie season, you could feel the wind come out of Bucks fans collective sails. But somehow (in no small part a testament to the team's exceptional coaching staff) the team managed to push on and secure the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.
It's easy to forget just how good Jabari Parker can be. He was a highly lauded prospect entering the NBA, and received the favorable comparison to Carmelo Anthony (although Jabari is a much less selfish player.) Parker possesses freakish athleticism, he can improve the team around him through intangible know-how and leadership, and he has demonstrated an unflinching work ethic. If anyone can work back from a torn ACL, it's Jabari. He stated at Bucks Media Day this summer, "I want to rebuild my body from scratch and not have any flaws."
Bucks fans who attended Fan Fest got to see Jabari fly through the sky for a couple of high-flying dunks during a scrimmage against his teammates.
However, the young phenom didn't see the court at all this preseason. It's a wise choice for the Bucks brass not to rush Jabari back too quickly; it's more important that he comes back at full strength and is firing on all cylinders by the time the postseason hits.
Center- Greg Monroe
A Big Addition
No one expected the Bucks to land Greg Monroe. Owner Wes Edens pulled off a straight-up balls to the walls miracle in flying out to Monroe's hotel suite this off-season before the Knicks and Lakers brass and talking the coveted big man into joining the Bucks.
Why did Monroe bite? It wasn't for his love of cheese curds. It's because he was convinced that he's the perfect piece to complete the Bucks' young core. While Zaza Pachulia was a consummate professional and played good team defense, Monroe is a huge upgrade.
Monroe improves upon the Bucks two biggest weaknesses from last season. He gives them an offensive post presence, and makes them a substantially better team on the glass. Last year while playing with Detroit, Monroe was one of ten players in the NBA to average a double double, despite playing out of position at power forward next to center Andre Drummond (who finished second in the league in rebounding.) While some pundits believe Monroe will make the Bucks a worse defensive team, his rebounding prowess will eliminate high-percentage shots on second chance opportunities for opponents, which will be beneficial to the team's overall defense
The other side of the coin is Monroe's ability to score in the post. His .496 shooting percentage last season was 8th amongst players who played 30 or more minutes per game, because he can create high-percentage shots for himself. Monroe is easily one of the most dynamic post scorers in the NBA, and that's something the Bucks sorely lacked last year, particularly in their playoff series against the Chicago Bulls. Monroe will help them get high percentage shots in their half court offense, provide a go-to guy in late game situations, and create open looks for teammates when he's double teamed.
Here's an example of Monroe's prowess in the post, which Bucks fans can get used to seeing regularly this season. The thing that sets him apart is that he's powerful, skillful and quick, which will allow him to beat virtually any defender in the block. Monroe's presence should add between 5-10 wins to the 2015-2016 incarnation of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Center- John Henson
Getting Defensive
John Henson is a bonafide defensive stopper. For anyone who watched Milwaukee's playoff games against The Bulls last season, it was clear that John Henson was frequently the best big man on the court, including Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol.
Henson is an upgrade on Monroe defensively, because of Henson's ability to block shots. He lead the league in blocks per 48 minutes last season, and showed improved strength when defending opposing players who would've pushed him around in previous seasons. When Henson and Giannis are on the court at the same time, the Bucks are going to be extremely difficult to score on inside.
Here's Henson soaring over Chicago for a putback dunk in last year's playoff series:
Guard- Rashad Vaughn
The Young Gun
Speaking of players who have the potential to be great, 18 year old rookie shooting guard Rashad Vaughn may prove to be another draft-night diamond in the ruff for GM John Hammond. Vaughn played for UNLV collegiately. Before injuring his knee midseason, he was UNLV's leading scorer, and trailed only D'Angelo Jackson of Ohio State and Jahlil Okafor of Duke in scoring average amongst all Division 1 freshmen. It's safe to say that if he Vaughn hadn't been injured, he'd have been off the board a lot earlier on draft night.
Vaughn has already demonstrated in preseason that he will force his way into the Bucks rotation this season, because he has the uncanny ability to make difficult shots with frequency, and he's just a doggone great shooter. If you missed Vaughn's impressive showing against Chicago in his first preseason game, check it out below.
The Reinforcements
The Bucks young core allows them to cherry pick role players that fit very specific needs, and they brought in some great complimentary pieces this summer (outside of the obviously incendiary addition of Monroe.)
Many fans were left scratching their heads when the Bucks sent two picks to Toronto on draft night for journeyman point guard Greivis Vasquez. But Vasquez is the perfect fit for the Bucks system. He stands 6' 6" but can play point guard, adding to the team's already insane length. He is one of the best locker-room guys in the NBA. He shot a very respectable 38% from three last season. And most importantly, if the injury-prone MCW goes down for an extended period this season, Vasquez has the experience to step into a starting role and provide the team an upgrade on offense.
New Bucks forward Chris Copeland is the definition of a journeyman, as he spent years of his career overseas before catching on as a 29 year-old rookie with the New York Knicks. Unfortunately, many Bucks fans know Copeland as the guy who got stabbed outside of the club in New York last year, the same night that Thabo Sefolosha got his leg broken by the NYPD. But Copeland is a player of high character. Flinder Boyd of SB Nation wrote a fantastic story about Copeland's undying work ethic and drive, as he worked tirelessly oversees under heavy scrutiny to become the player he is now. Kidd likes players like Copeland because they have tremendous basketball IQ and had to work what they have. A guy like Copeland will teach the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker a lot about the finer details of basketball.
Another player who'll benefit from the presence of Copeland, Vasquez and veteran guard O.J. Mayo is 20 year old forward Damien Ingliss, the Bucks' second-round draft pick from the 2014 draft, who missed all of last season due to a broken right ankle. Inglis is a protypical Bucks player, in that he has an outstanding combination of size, speed, and length. He likely won't be ready to put in big minutes this season, but over time he could develop into a great complementary piece for the young Bucks core.
Final Verdict
This Bucks have one of the best starting fives in the Eastern Conference, on paper only appearing to be trumped by Miami and Cleveland. The fact that Milwaukee has been commonly picked to finish in the lower half of the Eastern Conference is silly. This team has one of the best coaching staffs in all of basketball, and a glut of young players with extraordinary potential. This year the Bucks bandwagon will fill up, and they may just win that first playoff series since the 2000-01 season. A few years down the road, the team will be playing in a brand new arena and state of the art practice facility, and will be competing for championships.
The Eastern Conference will likely shape up like this in the 2015-12 season:
1.) Cleveland Cavaliers- Projected Record- 60-22
The Cavs have the best player in the league, and have built a stellar team around him.
2.) Chicago Bulls- Projected Record- 50-32
Derrick Rose is never going to be a top 10 point guard again, but Chicago has depth.
3.) Miami Heat- Projected Record- 49-33
Dragic/Wade/Deng/Bosh/Whiteside is an impressive starting five if they all remain healthy.
4.) Atlanta Hawks- Projected Record- 47-35
Can the Hawks follow up last year's somewhat unexpected success, despite the loss of DeMarre Carroll?
5.) Washington Wizards- Projected Record- 46-36
John Wall and Bradley Beal make up the Eastern Conference's best backcourt.
6.) Milwaukee Bucks- Projected Record- 45-37
At full strength with the addition of Monroe, this team will improve upon last year's 41-41 finish.
7.) Boston Celtics- Projected Record- 43-39
Brad Stevens is an incredible coach, and despite the Celtics' lack of a star, they will play a team-oriented game and compete every night.
8.) Toronto Raptors- Projected Record- 41-41
No team in the NBA's success depends more on one player's health than Toronto's does on Kyle Lowry's.
Of course, when asked what the team's expectations are for the 2015-16 season, Jabari Parker stated: "We're looking top 3." Let's see if his return can push the young Bucks to that lofty goal.
