NFLfree agency is back, and with it the mind-crushing task of calculating howplayer moves affect a team's standing under the league's salary cap. Bestadvice for Packers fans: Don't even try to understand the rules, just assumethe team honchos do and hope for the best.
Frank: It's safe to say that neither of us has any idea howthis stuff works.
Artie: It's all so byzantine and baffling. Your salary is acertain amount but you “count against the cap” for another amount; you get cutbut may still be on the team's books; some bonus money counts now and some getsspread out over years. It makes my head hurt.
F: That's kind of appropriate for the NFL, whereeverything is over-schemed and over-jargoned like it's a national securityoperation.
A: The Packers' website is running a combination primerand quiz titled, “Pass the Test and You're a Cap Master.” It's helpful, if yourgoal is to get more confused. There's a definition for “Salary,” but also forthings like “Voidables” and “Dead Money.” And the paragraph on contract offersto restricted free agents begins, “There are four levels, none of whichguarantees a player's salary.”
F: What could be clearer? Anyway, although the 2013 capisn't set yet—$123 million is one estimate—I read that the Packers have freedup some good “cap room” to fit people into, like maybe $22 million.
A: You'd think so after they said goodbye to DonaldDriver and Charles Woodson and let Greg Jennings move on to free agency. Butevery day I hear or read new numbers. A lot of the confusion involves the factthat sooner or later they need to give Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews huge newlong-term contracts.
F: Matthews is going into the last year of his originaldeal and Rodgers has two years left. But with Baltimore's Joe Flacco cashing inon his Super Bowl triumph to become the highest-paid quarterback—with asix-year deal supposedly worth $120 million—the Packers may feel the need to“lock in” Rodgers at Flacco's level or above.
A: In Matthews' case, the deal that Mario Williamssigned in Buffalo last year—something like $96 million over six years—is thecurrent gold standard for pass rushers. But remember, in the NFL some contractnumbers are fantasy because hardly any of them represent “straight salary.” Thebonuses and how they're timed defy comprehension, and anyway most of thesemega-deals get restructured long before they're due to expire.
F: To create better cap room, of course. Anyway,Matthews could become an unrestricted free agent a year from now. Currentlyhe's eighth on the roster in “cap impact” at about $4.9 million. Rodgers leadsat $9.75 million, followed by Jermichael Finley ($8.75M), Tramon Williams($8.5M), A.J. Hawk ($7.05M), Ryan Pickett ($6.7M), B.J. Raji ($6.595M) and JoshSitton ($5.55M).
A: The bad news for Hawk is that with Matthews' deal onthe horizon he ain't worth $7 million. Not that he's been a total bust atinside linebacker...
F: My sense is that he hasn't been spectacular but he'sbeen consistently solid. And with all the linebacking injuries they've have hadin recent years, Hawk has been the most reliable guy for staying on the field.
A: Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson obviously agree, orHawk wouldn't still be there. But they've clearly decided that Hawk needs torestructure downward in terms of the cap. If not, there are a lot of optionsfor inside linebackers—including perhaps the return of Nick Barnett, who justgot cut in Buffalo.
F: Of course, even if Hawk is released he'll still countsomething against the cap.
A: But according to the Journal Sentinel it would only be $1.6 million—and “$3.2 million inthe future as the remaining prorated portions of the $8 million signing bonus”Hawk got in 2011.
F: The Cap, the Dreaded Cap. It blots out the sky likeone of those giant spaceships in the movie IndependenceDay. I guess in Rodgers' case it comes down to whether he's miffed abouttrailing Flacco's contract...
A: I'll bet his agent is thrilled about it!
F: At last, something we can be certain of. Wheneverthose negotiations begin, there'll be... HEY! Speaking of caps, we're runninginto one of our own—the available space on this newspaper page. And unlike theNFL's, this cap is perfectly clear: There ain't no more room.
A: But I hear the beauty of this Inter-Web thing is thatyou can keep blathering and no one cares how much space you use...
F: Because there is no “space,” as we know it, in theCloud or Mist or whatever they call the on-line universe. So we'll keep this discussiongoing at expressmilwaukee.com...
AS WE WERESAYING...
F: To continue about Rodgers, there's always going to bea “leapfrog” effect; whenever he or Tom Brady or Eli Manning gets his next bigpile of money, other elite-level QBs will be trailing. We'll find out, I guess,whether Rodgers feels any urgency about getting to the top of the heap orwhether he can wait a year.
A: If he could be sure he'd follow Flacco as the SuperBowl MVP he'd be glad to wait, ain'a?
F: Lord knows what kind of bonuses Rodgers will get. Iread that Matthews should wind up with a signing bonus of $25 million to $30million. But the NFL and all its teams are swimming in money; the Journal Sentinel reported that thePackers made a profit of $42.7 million for the year ending last March and had$293 million in “reserves.” And when the next national TV deal kicks in nextyear the green ocean will get even deeper. Of course, that hasn't stopped theteam from raising ticket prices for a fourth straight year.
A: There's no question the Pack has the money to paythese top guys. But the crazy rules of the cap make things complicated everyflippin' year.
F: The Packers made a big cap-related decision thismonth when they opted to let Jennings become an unrestricted free agent insteadof putting the "franchise player” tag on him. Tagging would have kept himon the team but at a cost of about $10 million, based on the average of topsalaries for wide receivers.
A: That's just too much for a guy at Jennings' stage.There's a philosophy these days—might have started with Ron Wolf or BillBelichick, whoever—that you cut a guy one year BEFORE he starts showing somedeclining skills.
F: Jennings will be 30 soon and the last couple of yearshe's had injury problems. As The Onionsnidely put it, Jennings "seems all but certain to hurt himself forsomebody else next year."
A: Besides, I read somewhere that as the franchise guyhe would have been making more than Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall CobbCOMBINED.
F: Plus he probably would have been unhappy with thefranchise tag. It seems to irk anyone who gets it.
A: That's understandable. Yeah, you make some good doughfor that one year, but at the very least it delays your long-term deal andpresumably even better dough. So guys feel like they've lost a year in the longrun.
F: The Jennings decision probably means the Packers willgive Finley the $3 million bonus he's due at the end of March, which would lockhim in at that $8.75 million cap impact.
A: And maybe THIS will be the year that Finley has themonster season everyone has been expecting.
F: It would help if he just shut his yap and quitcomplaining about not getting the ball enough.
A: To say nothing of holding onto it when it DOES comehis way. But really, they need his combination of size and speed at tight endto attack those dang “two deep” schemes that teams play with their safeties.You beat those by going down the middle, and Finley can do it. Toward the endof last season he was showing that; now let's have a full-season's worth!
F: Besides Jennings, the other unrestricted free agentsfrom the Packers are outside linebackers Erik Walden and Brad Jones and runningbacks Cedric Benson and Ryan Grant. For a couple of years we've been talkingabout whether the team could find someone to complement Matthews' pass-rushingskills on the other side, and Walden and Jones were among the names that cameup. But they didn't pan out.
A: Mainly because neither could stay healthy. Joneslooked good for a while as a rookie but got hurt and never returned to thatlevel. Walden was the same, up and down. That's why the Pack drafted Nick Perrylast year, but after some early flashes HE went out for the year with a wristinjury. They've just got to hope he stays healthy this year.
F: So I take it you don't see a burning need for thePackers to make a big offer to Walden or Jones?
A: It would be nice to keep them in the mix, but not atsome big cost.
F: And how about Benson? He was going to provide therunning game last season but then broke down with a foot injury.
A: He's 30, getting up there for a running back—and I can’tgauge Ted Thompson’s interest in keeping him—but I’d sure like to see thePackers give him another shot.
F: It really shows how amazing the Packers' passingattack has been these last few years—piling up yards and points with virtuallyno consistent running game.
A: Ryan Grant, James Starks, Benson, Alex Green, Grantagain—there were some decent performances but no one could stay healthy enoughto solidify things. Now there's DuJuan Harris, who showed something late lastseason. He's listed on the Packers’ roster as 5-foot-8 but may be shorter, soof course some people say he's “too little.” But he's not much smaller than RayRice, and you never hear Rice called “too little.”
F: Now we come to the restricted free agents. They aretwo more linebackers, “insider” Robert Francois and “outsider” Frank Zombo;cornerback Sam Shields, tight end Tom Crabtree and offensive lineman EvanDietrich-Smith. The Packers have to make offers to them by Tuesday or they goon the open market. Who do you consider a “must-stay”?
A: Dietrich-Smith for sure—he shifted over from guardand became the starting center when Jeff Saturday fizzled. And they definitelyneed to keep Shields. Crabtree would be nice to have as a backup, but not at areal high price. Same for the LBs.
F: I guess the NFL is the opposite of the NBA with“RFAs.” In basketball the player gets an offer from another team and theoriginal team has to decide whether to match it. In football the other teamsget a shot at exceeding the original offer.
A: Which is why it gets tricky for the Packers; thehigher the original offer, the less chance you'll lose a guy. But if you're notreally dying to keep someone, you have to think about what kind of draft-pickcompensation you might get for him and maybe “low-ball” him with that in mind.It's always a gamble.
F: One thing Thompson doesn't do often is spend a lotfor a free agent from the outside.
A: Nope, he's a “build from within” guy, emphasizingdraft picks and then finding some “street” free agents who go undrafted or arecut by other teams. And it's worked out pretty well for the Pack.
FANTASTICFINISHES
Thetopic shifted to another sport Sunday evening....
A: Man, I'm completely wrung out! Between losing an hourto daylight savings and surviving two buzzer-beating finishes for Marquette andWisconsin...
F: Vander Blue's gutsy layup—two of them, actually—savedMU in overtime Saturday against St. John's, and then Traevon Jackson'sthree-pointer got UW past Penn State.
A: I didn't think it would be easy for the Badgers eventhough Penn State has a bad record. And in the last minute I thought, “This isidentical to the Minnesota game they lost in overtime.” Mike Bruesewitzcouldn't get the ball inbounds in that one with 22 seconds left, and this timehe threw it away with 25 seconds left. But Jackson saved 'em.
F: Marquette almost threw its game away too, with St.John's making up a lot of ground in the final minutes of regulation. And justbefore the end of the game Len Elmore had a comment that I think summarizesMU's whole season.
A: I think I know the one you mean.
F: Elmore said, “The folks at Madison Square Garden arenot getting cheated, man. They are seeing some of the best effort—I didn't saybest basketball—but certainly the best effort I've seen in a long time.”
A: That's the Golden Eagles all right.
F: Not pretty, sometimes out of control, but they leaveevery ounce of themselves on the court just about every game.
A: And the same with the Badgers, even if their pace isa little more even.
F: After the MU game I did some number-crunching interms of how many excruciatingly close games they've had this year, especiallyin the Big East. And I was surprised to find that ONLY seven of their 18 conferencegames have gone to OT or had a margin of six points or fewer in regulation. Butin those games they're 5-2.
A: I'll bet it's kind of the same for the Badgers.
F: Even more so. UW also has played 18 conference games,and 10 of them were either overtime or under a six-point margin in regulation.And the Badgers are 7-3 in those games.
A: But they had two horrible shooting games againstPurdue and Michigan State before this last one. If they'd been on a cruise shipthey could have tossed a ball over the rail and missed the water.
F: Yeah, in those two games they shot 35% overall (37for 105) and 20% on three-pointers (10 for 50). But they were better at PennState—22 for 51 overall and 7 for 21 on threes. As we've noted before, theBadgers are among the national leaders in treys attempted—well over 20 pergame— and the longer shots are, by definition, riskier.
A: While MU knows it isn't a good-shooting team anddoesn't bomb away from long range. But I've noticed that one of their realstrengths all year, their free-throw shooting, seems to have cooled offrecently.
F: Let's consult some box scores... Yeah, in their lastthree games MU has gone 33 for 56 from the line, only 59%.
A: That can really hurt a team when it comes to theconference tournament, and especially the NCAAs. So many of those games comedown to the last minute, the last possession, and when you don't have a realgo-to outside shooter like MU, the freebies are huge. I'd say the way todefense MU is to pack the middle and dare 'em to win from the outside.
F: Whatever happens now, MU has had a great season—23-7overall, 14-4 in the conference and a share of the regular-season title withGeorgetown and Louisville. In the conference tournament the Eagles are likelyto face Notre Dame on Thursday and then Louisville in the semifinals.
A: The Badgers, meanwhile, were 21-10 overall and 12-6in the Big Ten—way better than I even hoped for after they lost their pointguard, Josh Gasser, before the season began.
F: And because Michigan missed a couple of free throwsand had the winning put-back roll off the rim against Indiana...
A: I can't believe my favorite point guard, Trey Burke,missed one of those freebies!
F: Because Indiana took the conference title at 14-4 andMichigan fell to 12-6, the Badgers earned a tie-breaker against the Wolverinesfor the No. 4 seeding and a first-round bye in the conference tournament.Michigan will play Penn State on Thursday and the winner gets the Badgers onFriday.
A: If it's Michigan, that ain't much of a reward for theBadgers! And if it's Penn State, well, they'd still better watch out.
FrankClines covered sports at The Milwaukee Journal and the Journal Sentinel. Art Kumbalekhas worked his entire life under a salary cap.
