In the winter Sabathia leftas a free agent for the mega-money of the New York Yankees, and Sheets also cut histies to the Brewers before finding he needed elbow surgery. But the Brewersadded future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman as their closer, hoping a solidbullpen and consistent offense would offset any drop-off in the startingrotation.
It didn't work out. As theaccompanying chart shows, the Brewers improved in run production, battingaverage and on-base percentage despite another major injury to Rickie Weeks,the decline and demotion of J.J. Hardy and the departure of the disappointingBill Hall. But the pitching took a huge step backward, mostly because of thestarters, whose 5.37 earned-run average was 29th out of 30 major-league teams.The Brewers, pitching-poor in the minor leagues and unable to pull off aSabathia-like deal, fell from contention after the All-Star break even as homeattendance rose above 3 million for a second straight year.
Now the Brewers face awinter of major decisions. Job One is improving the rotation, and the firstmove was to hire pitching coach Rick Peterson, known for intensive analysis ofthrowing mechanics. Help might be found through free agency, but small-marketeconomics limit the Brewers' spending. If they make trades, whom can theBrewers most afford to deal—Weeks, plagued so far by inconsistency andinjuries; Hardy, who lost the shortstop job to Alcides Escobar; Corey Hart, anunderachieving right fielder; Mat Gamel, the "third baseman of thefuture" last spring but eclipsed in the summer by Casey McGehee?
The Brewers quicklyre-signed Hoffman for 2010, but other big names from '09 are eligible to befree agents—center fielder Mike Cameron, second baseman Felipe Lopez, catcherJason Kendall. Whom should the Brewers try to keep?
The decisions are up to teamowner Mark Attanasio and general manager Doug Melvin. But the speculating isopen to all, and the Fairly Detached Observers happily join the babble of freeadvice.
Frank: Last week another buddysaid the Brewers have to almost work against themselves. Plug one hole in thedike and another appears because they weaken themselves someplace else. That'strue of all teams to some extent, but the Brewers have less margin for errorthan a money machine like the Yankees or Red Sox.
Artie: What was the payroll thisyear?
Frank: A little over $80 million,about in the middle for the majors.
Artie: They'll have to spend moneyto fix the pitching.
Frank: But will there be anythingextra to spend? How has the economy affected Mr. Attanasio'sinvestment-managing business, and how much will they lose when the fans'disappointment drops the advance ticket sales?
Artie: They've got to show beforespring training that they've really done something to stir up the interestagain.
Stay or Go?
Frank: Let's consider the guysthey have to decide on first—Lopez, Cameron and Kendall.
Artie: In other words, only three of the four "up themiddle" defensive keys.
Frank: Deciding on Lopez meansdeciding on Weeks. Besides the issue of whether they can afford Lopez, who'sgot the notorious Scott Boras as his agent, if you re-sign him that leaves noplace for Rickie, who says he's strictly a second baseman.
Artie: But if you keep Rickie, canhe stay in one piece? He keeps wrecking a wrist, and his bat-waggling doesn'thelp that.
Frank: This month Doug Melvinsaid, "We view Rickie as our second baseman at this point." You neverknow what trade might pop up, but I say keep Rickie; he was headed for abreakthrough season when he got hurt in May.
Artie: Melvin can only hope thatnext May he's not putting Weeks on the disabled list again, ain’a?
Frank: Cameron made $10 million thisyear and he won't want any less in 2010. That looks too steep to me.
Artie: You know what you get inhim offensively—around .250 with 20-plus homers and lots of strikeouts. But thekey is his defense. He'll be 37 in January but can still cover the ground. Andif not him in center, who?
Frank: They've thought aboutplaying Hart there. Jody Gerut didn't show much this year. And Jason Bourgeoishas just been waived.
Artie: There's the ex-Cub, CoreyPatterson, whom they added late this season. He's also a free agent.
Frank: Talk about strikeouts! Hehad only 14 at-bats here but K'd seven times. And his career on-base percentageis .290. Steer clear of that.
Artie: But if they let Cameron go,Patterson could be a stopgap until Lorenzo Cain can progress from the minors.Cain basically missed the '09 season in Double-A with a knee injury.
Frank: So you'd stay with Cameron?
Artie: You betcha, with a one-yeardeal. Otherwise, it's just as your buddy says: Save money to plug the pitchinghole but open up a big hole in center.
Frank: I just think the Cameronmoney can be better spent. I'd try Hart in center.
Artie: The same problem ariseswith the catching. If you don't re-sign Kendall, who takes over? Kendall did next-to-nothing on offense this year, buteven at 35 he played 134 games.
Frank: Mike Rivera, meanwhile,played more than in '08 but dropped from .306 to .228. And he's no kid at 33.
Artie: This year they had AngelSalome in Triple-A and Jonathan Lucroy in Double-A, but neither is ready to beNo. 1 here.
Frank: I agree on keeping Kendall, for stability. Locking up Hoffman for 2010 was ano-brainer. And right now it looks like they'll pick up their option for BradenLooper, this year's main addition to the rotation.
Artie: A 14-game winner onlybecause he got the run support that Yovani Gallardo didn't. Looper's ERA was5.22, for cripes' sake.
Frank: Looper, Dave Bush and yourfavorite, Jeff Suppan, lived up to my name for them, "The ThreeA-Mediocres." Any way you parse the stats—four years of Bush, three ofBush/Suppan or this year as a trio—you see a .500 record at best and an ERAaround 5.
Artie: This year, with Bushinjured a long time and Suppan a little, the three guys were 26-28 and 5.53.
Frank: Manager Ken Macha said,"We can't have starting pitchers with 5.00 ERAs." With Manny Parra's6.36, they had four.
Artie: Which is four more than theYanks and Phillies take into the World Series. It's time to bury Suppan in thebullpen. They can't trade him, with his $12.5 million salary for next year. Ilove the mantra that Soup, Bush and Looper are "inning eaters." Ifinnings were pizzas, theirs would have all the toppings—singles, homers, acouple of wild pitches and plenty of walks.
Frank: Looper said he had a badknee all season "but I don't want to make excuses." Fine: He's notexcused.
Artie: But it seems like they’llpick up his option for $6.5 million—about a 37% raise. Hey, I've got two bumknees; where can I get a job like that?
Frank: Melvin says he wants twonew guys in the rotation. I say it's time to cut Bush loose. If Suppan goes tothe bullpen, that leaves Gallardo, Looper and Parra, by virtue of his potentialand lefty-ness.
Deal or No Deal?
Artie: So who might they trade toget pitching?
Frank: They've gotta deal Hardyfor his own good. True, he had a really bad year at the plate, but Melvin tooka drastic step in shipping him to Nashville for ju-u-u-st long enough that hisfree agency got pushed back a year to November 2011. They've committed toEscobar and Hardy can't possibly want to stay.
Artie: His '09 flop doesn't helphis trade value.
Frank: But he's still young andhas shown he can be productive. Same thing with Hart, who got sidetracked by anappendectomy and has never become the consistent "five-tool" playerthey've hoped for. And then there's Rickie, who has the negatives of shakydefense and repeated injuries.
Artie: Then there's Gamel, who's apure hitter but didn't get enough playing time because of his iffy defense andMcGehee's success at third. He's got good value.
Frank: So it's "Farewell Mat,go get us some pitching."
Artie: Of course, everybody wantspitching in return for pitching. So Parra could get into a tradepackage.
Frank: There's also Seth McClungor Carlos Villanueva or Todd Coffey, but Parra has the most value because he'sa lefty and young. Of course, that would mean they need three newstarters.
Artie: With Parra, Hardy, Hart andGamel, you'd have two packages you can deal for pitching. And the Giants, forinstance, need hitting and have lots of young pitching.
Frank: Like Matt Cain?
Artie: I doubt they can get him,but there's Jonathan Sanchez, not yet 27 and a promising lefty—threw ano-hitter last July. Or a 20-year-old lefty named Madison Bumgarner, one of thetop prospects in baseball.
Frank: What might land Cain is thebiggest asset the Brewers have, literally.
Artie: The Prince.
Frank: But does Mr. Attanasiotrade his top star knowing the fan reaction he'd get, not to mention theoffensive chasm it'd leave?
Artie: Can't be done, just from amarketing sense.
Frank: They're likely to face thePrince issue a year from now as he headsinto his final season before free agency. But the guys who "rented"Sabathia know you've got to try to win right now.
Artie: Besides, Prince plays everyday. Whoever the top-line pitcher is—Cain, Zack Greinke from the Royals, RoyHalladay in Toronto—he sits four games out of five.
Play the Market?
Frank: Let's look at the startingpitchers available as free agents. No. 1 is John Lackey, I guess.
Artie: His career numbers aregood—102-71 and a 3.81 ERA—but they sure don't scream "Ace!" And he's31.
Frank: A lot of these guys are"of a type"—in their 30s, good but not great stats. Randy Wolf,Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny—career ERAs around 4, a few gamesover .500.
Artie: Suppan-esque numbers, atleast the Suppan who got four years and $42 million from the Brewers.
Frank: When he signed in December2006, he was 44-26 and 3.95 in three years as a Cardinal. But lifetime, he was106-101 and 4.61.
Artie: Nothing against Souppersonally; he had a good stretch and it paid off—for him.
Frank: The free-agent pitcherswith the best numbers have the most injury questions. Tim Hudson, Rich Harden,Erik Bedard in Seattle—allof them have ERAs in the 3s, but can they hold up? Justin Duchscherer in Oakland missed the seasonwith depression issues on top of elbow surgery.
Artie: But they'll all cash inbecause everyone is desperate for pitching.
Frank: Rick Peterson, the newpitching coach, is known as a scientific guy—lots of words that begin with"bio-" in stressing mechanics. I think his hiring means the Brewersdon't plan to shoot for the moon in free agency or trade a lot of their assets,but rather rely on Peterson to resurrect a guy like Duchscherer or Bedard...
Artie: Or Mark Mulder, who didn'tpitch at all in 2009. Or Chris Capuano, who's coming off his second Tommy Johnsurgery.
Frank: Plus have Peterson workintensively with Parra and lefty Chris Narveson, who had some good outings inSeptember.
Artie: Basically, bring lots of armsto Arizonaand have 'em compete.
Frank: Peterson is from New Jersey, worked for the Mets and is a popular guest onNew Yorkradio shows. I heard him a few times when I was back East, and he sounded...well, pretty darn confident he has the answers. Like anything else, the proofis on the field. If the Brewers' pitching turns around, he's a genius. If not,he's a flake.
Artie: He had success indeveloping the "Big Three" in Oakland a few years back—Hudson, Mulderand Barry Zito.
Frank: But two of the three,Hudson and Mulder, later had breakdowns. Is it because they missed Peterson orbecause a lot of pitchers break down no matter what their mechanics are?
Artie: Let's take a chance with aDuchscherer or somebody else who's more affordable than Lackey or Wolf. Thentrade for a guy like Sanchez or Kevin Correia of the Padres—he's 29 and went12-11 with a 3.91 ERA for a crummy team.
Frank: So the 2010 Brewers willhave at least two new starting pitchers, but maybe also a new center fielderand/or catcher. Or if the pitchers come in trades, the 2010 team will lose someof its "future."
Artie: Gotta give something to getsomething—or is it, you get nothing for nothing.
Frank: This year with a lousyrotation they were just two games under .500. If Peterson's system works, ifWeeks and Hart stick around and live up to their potential, if Hoffman doesn'tlose his touch, if McGehee doesn't have a sophomore slump, if Escobar fulfillstheir expectations...
Artie: And the most importantthing, if the team stays healthy...
Frank: Let's say there are sixmajor things that need to go right. If five do, the sky's the limit. If fourdo, the team should contend.
Artie: And if only two work out...The Yankees can try to buy their way out, but not the Brew Crew. The one thingI know is I don't envy Doug Melvin!
