Photo Credit: Jim Biever/ Packers.com
James Jones has been great and I don’t want to take anything away from him here, but I’m going to tell you how the Packers have maintained this level of play without Jordy Nelson, and Jones is only part of the equation. In actuality, the Packers have replaced Nelson by drawing people offside. If you don’t believe me, read on.
Many analysts have mentioned Aaron Rodgers amazing ability to draw people offside, or to catch a defense with 12 men on the field, but almost no one follows up on the obvious question of just how valuable this is. As it turns out it’s extremely valuable and not just some cute trick he can pull off. I think most casual fans consider pass interference to be the biggest penalty in football, and it can indeed be huge. I’m even going to talk about one such call here. But while pass interference is big, an offside call with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is just about the biggest penalty in all of sports, and this season such calls have been absolute game-changers.
The reason for this is it presents a risk-free opportunity for a touchdown or at the very least a huge play. Pass interference is great as it comes with some amount of yardage and an automatic first down, but that’s all it comes with. The baseline for and offside call is an extra play and five yards (which, in most cases makes the odds of achieving a first down extremely likely). That’s a great floor, but the ceiling is so much greater as it allows you to not only go for the big play, but to do so in ways you never would otherwise. In the Seattle game an offside penalty allowed Rodgers to attack Richard Sherman, resulting in a 52-yard pass interference penalty to Ty Montgomery and the TD to James Jones. Attacking Richard Sherman is usually the last thing an offense tries, but in this case the offside penalties netted the team 10 points against the outstanding corner.
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Perhaps no one has benefited more from this talent than Jones, which makes sense. Jones is often well-covered, but he’s great at using his body to out-physical defensive backs and make tough catches. He’s a great high-risk, high reward target, and a smart veteran who understands that you always keep running on penalty plays. Take away the risk and he’s just a high-reward specialist. So far this year on plays where Rodgers draws his opponents offside, James Jones has 4 catches on 6 throws for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Overall, on penalty plays Rodgers has completed 5 passes, none of which was shorter than 22 yards. If we count Ty Montgomery’s 52 yard pass interference penalty as a completion, Rodgers is 6/9 for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in only three games. Throw in another 15 yards in straight offside penalties on his 3 incompletions, and Rodgers has added 231 yards on free plays this year. If he were to maintain this pace for the entire season, he would throw for 1232 yards and 11 TDs just on free plays. To provide some context, in 2013 Jordy Nelson had 1,314 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. I’m not saying that Rodgers will maintain this pace (in fact, he almost certainly won’t), but so far he’s basically replaced his best receiver’s production with an effective hard count. And even if he doesn’t continue to draw players offside at this rate, that likely means defensive lineman have decided it’s not worth risking the penalty for a good jump, which will give Rodgers more time in the pocket on regular plays.
Finally, there is a statistic called “Win Percentage Added” or WPA. WPA looks at how likely you were to win the game before a given play and after said play, subtracts one from the other, and tells you how important that play was. You can find a Win Probability Graph at the top of any game summary page on Pro Football Reference.
If you add up all of the WPA Rodgers added just on free plays in the Packers' first 3 games, you get 30.5%, meaning that Rodgers has been worth about a third of a win just by drawing people offside and being smart enough to capitalize in the biggest way possible. Considering how many contributors there are in any football game, that’s a huge number. Aaron Rodgers isn’t just the best quarterback in football. He is the best quarterback in football at every skill. He’s the best thrower, he’s the smartest, and he never turns the ball over. Even something seemingly small like drawing opponents offside turns into a huge advantage when it’s Rodgers at the helm.
Want more Packer insight? Catch up on Paul Noonan's previous columns here.