Photo by Evan Siegle from Packers.com
The Packers have hit their stride, and they’re in great shape to hold on to the NFC’s two-seed at least once playoff time rolls around. They will certainly win the North given their three-game lead on the Minnesota Vikings, meaning they will, at worst, be the three-seed. Given that they only have one strong team remaining on their schedule (Tennessee) while the Saints still face the Chiefs and Vikings, there’s a very good chance they land the one-seed. Obviously, the ideal situation is securing the 1-seed, and the only first round bye, as the NFL added an extra playoff team this year, meaning everyone else must earn their way out of the first round.
It’s extra important for the Packers to gain the one-seed based on the likely matchups they will run into in the playoffs. The Packers can beat anyone, of course, but because of how their defense is structured, and because of the always unpredictable Green Bay weather, there are a few teams that it would be best to avoid. If the Packers fail to secure the conference’s top seed, there’s a good chance they face one immediately.
Best to avoid: The Buccaneers, The Vikings
When the Packers beat the Vikings in Week 1, they were essentially playing a team that no longer exists. Minnesota was starting an entirely new secondary, they hadn’t figured out just how good rookie Justin Jefferson was yet, and they strangely failed to use their standard play-action game. Those young corners, led by 3rd round rookie Cameron Dantzler have improved drastically over the course of the season, and despite the absence of Yannick Ngakoue and Danielle Hunter, their pass rush has rounded into form.
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Minnesota has won five of six games (the only loss being a baffling game against Dallas) including a bad-weather game against Green Bay. Given Mike Zimmer’s history against Aaron Rodgers, and Dalvin Cook’s ability to dominate on a cold day in Lambeau, this is a matchup to avoid.
Tampa also owns a win over Green Bay, and it would be best to avoid them, but given the choice between Minnesota and Tampa, I would prefer Tampa. The Bucs’ inside linebackers will always give Green Bay trouble, especially outside in January, but the Tampa offense has come back down to earth a bit as head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brad have feuded over offensive philosophy. Tampa also struggles to run the ball, which could cost them in Lambeau. That said, they still possess the kind of defense that gives the Packers fits, and if Tom Brady wins the feud, his incredible underneath passing hits the Packers right in one of their key weaknesses at inside linebacker.
Bring Them On: Seattle
It may seem crazy to ask for Russell Wilson, but it’s clear that among likely playoff teams, they represent the easiest road for the Packers. Seattle relies heavily on their offense to win games, anchored by Wilson, and receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but that is where their strengths end. Seattle is mediocre against the run, but against the pass, this is no Legion of Boom. Seattle has consistently struggled against any and all passing attacks, and currently rank 27th according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Aaron Rodgers and company would be expected to put up 40+ points without issue.
The other problem for Seattle is their coach. Pete Carroll is behind the times, and still insists on attempting to run the ball more than he should, despite the fact that Seattle isn’t a good running team. The Packers’ are strong against outside receivers, and in Lambeau, it’s likely Seattle would fall into the trap of not using Russell Wilson enough.
Unknown but Dangerous: Los Angeles
The Saints currently hold the top seed in the division, but given that the Packers have beaten them once, and their current quarterback and former Packer Taysom Hill isn’t a good passer, they’re not that scary. The Packers wouldn’t run into them until later anyway. The Rams, on the other hand, are peaking at just the right time, and could cause all sorts of issues for Green Bay. They feature an elite, well rounded defense that is stout against the run, and ranks 5th against the pass. Green Bay has put up points against similar teams, like the Indianapolis Colts, but the Rams are also well-suited to win a bad-weather slog-fest. They are currently the most efficient running team in football according to DVOA, and Sean McVay’s creative passing attack would be a big challenge for Mike Pettine.
If the season ended today, the Vikings and Packers would face off, while the Bucs would get the Rams. If Green Bay stays at the second seed, they’ll have a very difficult path to the Super Bowl. If they can snag the one seed from New Orleans, they would have a bye, and then likely face Seattle in round 2. That would leave them just a game away from the Super Bowl. The Packers have the division in hand but given how the playoffs are likely to play out they still have a lot to play for.
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