In the 1980s, it was standard for an NFL team to run on first and second down, and resort to passing on third down when they needed a big gain to move the chains. Playing defense was much easier as it was always clear what the offense would be doing. The cliche of having to establish the run to open up the passing game is ancient, but until the last decade or so, it was also orthodoxy.
In the 80s and 90s the cliche didn’t make much sense as teams would typically run from running formations and personnel groups, and pass from passing formations and personnel groups, and so, again, the defense knew what was coming. Finally, in 2018, the old cliche has finally come to pass. Doug Pederson’s Philadelphia Eagles, by virtue of a deep understanding of how football actually works combined with creative concepts borrowed from the wild west of college football made the old adage true.
The Eagles proved to be an unstoppable juggernaut despite lacking elite wide receivers, and relying on backup quarterback Nick Foles, and much of that success is due to the fact that the Pederson’s preferred offense was extremely player friendly. The Eagles are willing to run any play from any personnel group, and as a result they always have deception in their favor.
On a third and four play in the second quarter, the Eagles did what they generally do and lined up with three wide receivers and Jay Ajayi in the backfield. This is normally a passing down, and the Eagles have the personnel to pass if they so desire, however they don’t make it quite so easy. They line up in a bunch formation with Nick Foles in shotgun, and instead of passing, they go straight run. I mistook this as a run-pass option play at first, but the line surging forward at the snap, and wide receiver Nelson Agholor’ blocking at the top of the formation indicates this is a run all the way, and it’s a great run. With lighter defensive personnel on the field, the Eagle line mauls the Patriots, and Ajayi follows a convoy of blockers through the hole for a huge gain.
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The Eagles would flip the script in the third quarter, lining up in a power bunch formation on third and one and winging a pass out to Zach Ertz for a big gain. Pederson will not hear of an obvious power fullback dive.
The Patriots almost matched the Eagles point for point, and also used deception to spring wide receivers open regularly. Here we see an excellent use of play-action, and crossing patterns.
Can you remember the last time you saw a Packer receiver running as wide open as Danny Amendola was routinely in this game?
Both coaches pulled out all of the stops to make life easy for their offenses by giving the defenses nothing at all to indicate what they are going to run. The Eagles won by being smart, and the team they beat has beaten people through football intelligence for years.
The Packers, the Falcons, and the Future
Last year in the NFC Championship Game, Atlanta, then led by current 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan, destroyed the Packers 44-21. While it’s true that basically every Packer corner was injured, it seems inexcusable that the team scored only 21 points and trailed 24-0 at halftime. Atlanta’s defense wasn’t even very good, and finished 26th in DVOA. The Falcons got ahead early and never let up, squelching any hope of a comeback. Their offensive game plan was near perfect and Matt Ryan played like the MVP he had been all season. They dominated the game and squelched potential comebacks immediately.
In 2017, the Falcons suffered a huge downgrade when Shanahan left for San Francisco and was replaced by Steve Sarkisian. Matt Ryan and the offense reverted to being good, not great, and Atlanta flamed out early as a result. Coaching mattered immensely to Atlanta, just as it did this season for the Rams and for the Eagles. My worry for the Packers is that while Mike McCarthy is still probably a better coach than two thirds of the league, he is now vastly inferior to the upper echelon, and that upper echelon is doing a lot of damage in the playoffs.
Mark Murphy gave McCarthy a short extension allowing him to stick around for one more prove-it season, and McCarthy reacted by bringing in old-timers he knows. They have Aaron Rodgers to rely on, and many offensive philosophies work with Aaron Rodgers, but they start to work less well with 35-year-old Aaron Rodgers who doesn’t recover quite as fast. They work less well with an aged Jordy Nelson. They work less well when you decide to hand the ball off 25 times a game because your passing offense isn’t quite what it used to be and because you have a few good running backs. Compared to the up-and-coming great NFL teams, much of what the Packers do simply isn’t going to match up.
I’m not worried about the Packers staying above the dregs when they’re fully healthy, but I now question whether they have the staff necessary to actually threaten for a championship. Rodgers is enough to keep everyone employed, but while it’s true that many things work with Rodgers at the helm, it is important to remember that there is a coaching staff out there that has things working even better with Nick Foles at the helm. Mike McCarthy needs to understand that if we all have to watch Aaron Rodgers put up inferior numbers to the Keenums and Foles of the world, his days are numbered.
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