The Packers lost the NFC Championship game in week 1. Everyteam has certain keystone players that they cannot live without. Thequarterback is almost always among them, but there are others as well,especially on defense, and for the Packers, Sam Shields was among them.
The Packers were a good team, and I would even go so far asto say they were a very good team, but the seeds of true greatness were there,and they probably would have sprouted with just a little more health. Shieldsmade a world of difference as a shutdown outside stopper who took pressure offeveryone else, and allowed for more flexibility in safety play. Without him,Burnett and Clinton-Dix found themselves tied down with specific assignments,Rollins and Randall found themselves pushed into the starting spotlight againstelite competition a little too soon, and Ladarius Gunter, who gave iteverything he had this year, found himself overmatched when forced into thelead role. A healthy Sam Shields allows everyone to cover longer, allows thepass rush to get home more frequently, and allows more freelancing. Once he waslost, possibly forever, the Packer ceiling was capped.
Blame
It’s natural to want to blame someone for a playoff loss,but in truth the culprit was almost certainly bad luck. Blaming bad luck isextremely unfulfilling, but Shields was just the tip of the iceberg. You couldcomplain that Dom Capers has worn out his welcome, and that he should havecoached up his team, but Capers was playing with a decimated secondary that hadGunter as its lead, was missing Morgan Burnett, and after a few plays was evendown Micah Hyde. Clay Matthews has looked either old or hobbled all year andNick Perry still has a cast on. The Packer defense was bad, but they were badfor a good reason.
That might lead you to blame Ted Thompson, his draft anddevelop strategy, and the personnel problems he created, but doing so is alsoproblematic. While it’s true Capers has had his share of bad defenses, he hasalso coached some top 10 units for the Packers, and the 2015 version happens tobe one of those. The Packer defense was 9th overall, and against the pass theywere 6th.
Yes, pass defense was a strength of the Packer defense justone year ago, and the young corners who struggled so much this year were a bigpart of that. Last season when targeting Quinten Rollins, Damarious Randall, orLadarius Gunter, no quarterback had a completion percentage over 59 and noquarterback had a QB Rating over 88. In 368 snaps last season, Rollins heldopposing quarterbacks to a 58.1 rating when targeted.
This season all three took huge steps back. Gunter’s regressionis excusable, as he is an undrafted free agent acquisition with limited speedwho had to cover elite receivers all year. He allowed a 112.4 rating againstthis season and he was the best of the 3. Rollins was an outright disaster,allowing opposing QBs to complete over 70% of their passes for a 133.8 rating.
The fact of the matter is that Thompson did bring backShields, two promising rookies, a promising prospect in Gunter, two all-procaliber safeties in Clinton-Dix and Burnett, and an excellent catch-all backupin Hyde. The struggles of this secondary to this extent were completelyunpredictable, and exacerbated by injuries. Capers came into this gamehamstrung by his roster, but that roster was constructed completely rationally.Some might be tempted to blame the medical staff, but Sam Shields has aconcussion, and no amount of training will stop that. Nick Perry has brokenbones. The defense collapsed, mostly, because of circumstances that werecompletely beyond their control. It happens sometimes. Not being able to blamesomeone won’t make you feel any better, but that doesn’t make it any less true.
The Offense: More of the Same
I think the Packers understood that the defense would haveits issues. Atlanta’s offense wasn’t just better than the Packer offense thisyear, it was much better. The Falcons scored 108 more points than Green Baythis season. The difference between Atlanta, who led the NFC in points scored,and the Packers, who were 3rd, is the same as the difference between thePackers and the Vikings, who finished 12th with 327 points. The Packers weregoing to have to win a shootout, and to do so they really needed to have allhands on deck, but if anything the offense was even more banged up than thedefense, and by the end of the game it was so banged up the defensive linemanLetroy Guion was playing offensive line. Jordy Nelson looked good early, butafter some time it looked like his broken ribs were bothering him, and DavanteAdams was definitely struggling with his injured ankle. On top of everythingelse, some of the Packers, including Rodgers and Nelson, had a case of the flu.
If the injury luck wasn’t bad enough, the Packers also had aterrible bit of luck while the game was still close. Aaron Rodgers actuallymoved the ball with relative ease early, but Mason Crosby missed a field goal,and on their next drive, Aaron Ripkowski fumbled in the red zone. Thesubsequent Falcon touchdown, basically a 14-point swing, cemented thegame. Even the zebras hurt Green Bay early as they granted the Falcons anunwarranted first down on the game’s first drive, that otherwise would haveforced a punt.
@SeifertESPN why did the NFL grant the falcons a first down here? @nflcommish and @NFLonFOX clearly have their pick. #werememberthefailmary pic.twitter.com/K3CdmCZADI
N8I (@N8I) January 22, 2017
Sometimes it’s just not in the cards.
None of this is meant to deny credit to the Falcons, whoplayed an extremely smart game and never allowed the Packers any hope ofgetting back into it. Julio Jones was able to dominate Ladarius Gunterpartially because they came out of the gate firing at Green Bay’s biggestweakness on defense, Damarious Randall. Mohamed Sanu caught 5 passes in thisgame. 4 of them came in the first quarter with his 5th and final coming earlyin the second. Sanu was the focus early to make the Packers give Randall help,and once they did, there simply wasn’t as much help for Gunter, which opened upJones. The Atlanta defense also managed to hit Rodgers with a couple of verytimely sacks, and kept the injured Packer receivers blanketed. The Falconsplayed a brilliant game and earned their Super Bowl. Even at full strength thePackers would have merely been an even matchup, and still would have had a hardtime winning the game. Coming in underpowered gave them no chance.
A Certain Future
I have already seen many Packer fans calling for sweepingchanges, but the fact of the matter is that this team encountered a ton ofadversity and still made it all the way to the second last game of the year.The offense may have struggled early, but with the return of Jared Cook and theposition switch of Ty Montgomery, McCarthy righted the ship, and the defensewas hit by all kinds of unforeseeable issues. Some people believe the Packersare more injury prone than the rest of the NFL, and that was once true, howeverthey have actually been quite healthy lately. Football Outsiders tracks this ina statistic called Adjusted Games Lost, or AGL. You can see how the Packershave ranked here (lower numbers mean that a team has been healthier)
@BadgerNoonan AGL rank in Rodgers era
Neal Olson (@olewr7) January 23, 2017
2008 - 17
2009 - 25
2010 - 30
2011 - 16
2012 - 32
2013 - 30
2014 - 3
2015 - 9
In 2014 they were the 3rd healthiest team in the league, andin 2015 they were 9th. This season is likely to be a recent anomaly more than acontinuing trend.
The Packers still have a solid base of talent, and it won’ttake very much to keep them as a member of the league’s elite. Even their muchmaligned defense is really only a player or 2 away from returning to top 10form. They likely need to replace Sam Shields, who is still experiencingsymptoms from his concussion to this day. They could use another edge rusher,and they could use another playmaker on offense. On the whole, their problemsare fairly minor, and the vast majority of teams are in much worse shape. EveryPacker fan is feeling the disappointment of the loss, but this is a team wellbuilt to return to greatness next year. Most fan bases cannot count on suchthings, and it is a testament to the ownership structure and the front officethat success is the norm, not the exception.
