The Green Bay Packers, on paper, aren’t bad. Aaron Rodgers is having a pretty good season on paper. The young receivers have come along nicely on paper. They have a burgeoning defense that has taken a step forward almost every week. They can, occasionally, score like a vintage Rodgers team. They can, occasionally, shut down opposing passing games. They entered the week leading the league in sacks.
On a play-to-play basis, the Packers have been better than their record, without question, but not all plays are created equally. Third down plays and fourth down plays count for more. Turnovers count for more. Certain penalties count for more. We tend to focus on “big plays” as exciting plays—like turnovers or huge bombs—but, in truth, the biggest plays in any given game are simple conversions. And that is where we begin our story, because this game was the Packer season in a nutshell. In some ways, it was the last five years of Packer games in a nutshell. Green Bay faced one of their most annoying (how else to describe the Seahawks?) opponents, and, while not everything went wrong, every typical Mike McCarthy-era Packer thing went wrong.
The Unseen Turnovers
Aaron Rodgers was 21/30 for 330 yards, two touchdowns, and, of course, no interceptions. Aaron Rodgers almost never throws interceptions and has only one interception on the season. He is famously careful with the ball, but that caution comes at a cost, and it’s bigger than most people realize. While Rodgers has always been careful, he also used to hit more big and medium-length plays. Since the end of the 2014 season, Rodgers’ yards per attempt has cratered, and big plays are less frequent. Against Seattle, Rodgers was sensational on three bombs, the biggest of which resulted in a 54-yard touchdown to rookie TE Robert Tonyan, but those three bombs made up almost half of his yardage for the game, meaning that on his 18 other completions, he was quite pedestrian. Because of that, the team had trouble sustaining drives.
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When we talk about quarterback turnovers, we focus on interceptions, but that’s a bit myopic, especially considering how much of the offense the quarterback controls. Rodgers is among the league leaders in sacks taken, and while you might be tempted to blame the offensive line for that fact (and sometimes they deserve it), Rodgers is the primary culprit. He loves to hold the ball, waiting for the big play, and he is also willing to take a sack instead of throwing a risky pass, but while many sacks are preferable to interceptions, third down sacks are a different story. Fifty-six percent of Rodgers’ sacks have occurred on third or fourth down, and, while sacks on third down are common (because passing on third down is common), Russell Wilson, who also takes a lot of sacks (32 so far this season to Rodgers’ 30) has been sacked on third or fourth down just 43% of the time.
Indeed, in this game, Rodgers was sacked four times on third down, killing several promising drives. Wilson was never sacked on third down, and, as a result, Seattle converted sox of 15 opportunities. The Packers converted just three of 11 third downs. Rodgers is on pace to take 48 sacks, which wouldn’t be a career high, but would still be a lot. However, there’s reason to think that raw number understates the severity of the situation. Rodgers is on pace for just 237 rushing yards, which would be his lowest 16-game total since 2008, and he’s averaging just 5.1 yards per carry—his lowest since the injury-shortened 2013 season. Rodgers is hitting the age where nagging injuries start to build up and mobility fades. He’s already suffered a few leg injuries this year, and it’s likely his mobility and escapability will continue to decline.
Mobility is a big part of his game, and in 2016, his exceptional mobility allowed him to throw a league-leading 40 touchdown passes despite a mediocre 7.3 yards per attempt. With Rodgers’ mobility hampered this season, the Packers have struggled in the red zone where he is only completing 44% of his passes. The field shrinks as you approach the end zone, and Rodgers’ ability to buy time, not panic, and wait for receivers to come open was once unparalleled. He now has to throw the ball earlier or attempt low-percentage body throws to Jimmy Graham, and his success rate has plummeted as a result.
Rodgers may not throw picks, but he’s tied for sixth among QBs with six fumbles. And, when throwing the ball on fourth down this season, he has completed one pass in seven attempts, plus a sack, with the lone completion being a 17-yard gain to Davante Adams against the Detroit Lions. Those third down sacks, fourth down failures and fumbles add up. In the aggregate, they are just as devastating as the occasional interception, and if Rodgers doesn’t start getting the ball out faster, even at added risk, he will continue hurting the team.
The Packers picked up three first downs in the entire second half, and that is why they lost. But hey, at least Rodgers didn’t throw an interception.
Mike McCarthy and the Numbers
Mike McCarthy sometimes gets a bum rap. He’s not a great coach, but he is aggressive in going for fourth downs and aggressive with his run/pass balance. He will still call the occasional brilliant play as well, as he did on a nifty pass to Marcedes Lewis last week. But his teams just can’t seem to help shooting themselves in the foot, and his late-game decision-making is often laughable.
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After this terrible throw from Rodgers made it fourth and two late in the game, McCarthy decided to punt instead of going for it. This was a terrible decision for a thousand different reasons. First of all, they were only in this situation because the Packers waste more timeouts than any other team in football.
With only one timeout remaining, there was a good chance that Seattle would be able to grind the remainder of the clock, and that’s exactly what happened. The decision was made even worse by the fact that both Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark, by far the team’s best run-stuffing defensive linemen, were injured, and not available to load up against the run.
The Packers should be able to pick up two yards, and the fact that Aaron Jones has now come into his own means that you don’t even necessarily have to pass. One of the two Aaron’s has a better chance at converting a short fourth down than the defense does at stopping a run-centered attack without their run-stoppers.
After this terrible throw from Rodgers made it 4th and 2 late in the game, McCarthy decided to punt instead of going for it. This was a terrible decision for a thousand different reasons. First of all, they were only in this situation because the Packers waste more timeouts than any other team in football.
With only one timeout remaining, there was a good chance that Seattle would be able to grind the remainder of the clock, and that’s exactly what happened. The decision was made even worse by the fact that both Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark, by far the team’s best run-stuffing defensive linemen, were injured, and not available to load up against the run.
The Packers should be able to pick up two yards, and the fact that Aaron Jones has now come into his own means that you don’t even necessarily have to pass. One of the two Aaron’s has a better chance at converting a short fourth down than the defense does at stopping a run-centered attack without their run-stoppers.
Official Incompetence
Despite all of their flaws, the Packers would still be having a very good season if NFL refs would actually do a decent job calling the game. Trevor Davis lost a huge kick return to a phantom block in the back penalty, and late in the game Tyler Lockett was awarded a catch on a ball that he clearly dropped.
There were several other questionable penalties as well, and while Seattle was penalized its fair share, mostly for obvious false starts, the penalties against Green Bay were devastating, occurring in high-leverage situations, and costing them enormous yardage. In a closely fought three-point game, the officials made all the difference in the world.
One Last Thing
One of McCarthy’s biggest flaws is telegraphing a play. He’s very likely to run from running formations, pass out of passing formations, and generally telling the defense exactly what is about to happen. At least twice in this game Davante Adams was targeted on deep passes and came out of the game for the next play. On both occasions, McCarthy ran the ball up the gut with Aaron Jones. On both occasions, the Seahawks had no fear of the Packer passing game without Adams, and easily snuffed out the run. Those were wasted, costly plays, and a better coach would never have run them.
