LastJanuary the Green Bay Packers fell one victory short of the Super Bowl.Now they’re watching the NFL playoffs, having backtracked from a 13-3record in 2007 to 6-10 this season. The Packers expected the season toopen the post-Brett Favre era, and it did, but only after the soapopera of Favre’s un-retirement led to his being traded to the New YorkJets.
With Aaron Rodgers taking over at quarterback, the Packers wontheir first two games, lost the next three, then won two straight tohit their bye week at 4-3.
After two tough losses at Tennessee and Minnesota,the Packers had their best day of the season in routing the hatedChicago Bears, 37-3. That put them in a three-way tie for the NFC Northlead at 5-5.
Thenthe bottom fell out for the Green and Gold. A wipeout at New Orleanswas followed by achingly close losses at Lambeau Field to Carolina andHouston. The Packers ran the losing streak to five games before beatinghapless Detroit to end the season.
The Packers’ seven-gameregression might be deceptive. Seven of the losses were by four pointsor fewer. Two came down to a last-second field-goal try, missed at Minnesota and made by Houston. Two others, at Tennesseeand Chicago, went to overtime. And in two others, against Carolina andJacksonville, the winning touchdown came with less than two minutesleft.
What to make of the season? The Fairly Detached Observers teed itup for discussion.
Artie: Well, we predicted 8-8, so we weren’t too far off.
Frank: A Packer fan might see a silver lining in all those close losses. But I’ll guess that you, Mr. Sunshine, take another view.
Artie: Exactly.They couldn’t hold a lead. And let’s look at the last four seasons. In2005, Mike Sherman’s farewell as coach, they were 4-12. The next yearMike McCarthy came in and they went 8-8. So in four years there’s beenonly one winning record.
Frank: The glass half-empty, huh?
Artie: Andif we look critically at the 13-3 year, they were pretty fortunate inseveral games where the bounces went their way, plus they were free ofmajor injuries. This season that didn’t happen. So maybe 2007 was theexception to this team’s true level.
Frank: Weknow where McCarthy and the GM, Ted Thompson, think the biggest changesneed to be made. This week they purged defensive coordinator BobSanders and most of the other defensive assistants.
Artie: Theycan start the changes by having fewer assistants. For crying out loud,they had one assistant for the defensive tackles and another for theends? They had a “secondary coach” but also a cornerbacks coach? What,does every guy need his own nursemaid? Come to think of it, maybe Icould use a coach of my own.
Frank: Whateverproblems Sanders’ scheme had, injuries were a factor, too. It seemedlike every game they were missing one or two starting D-backs.
Artie: Anda key loss was Cullen Jenkins, the defensive lineman who went out inWeek 4 with a torn chest muscle. He certainly would have helped withthe run defense and with pressure on quarterbacks, ain’a?
Frank: He’d have complemented Aaron Kampman as a sack guy.
Artie: Kampmanled the team with nine and a half, but tied for second were alinebacker, A.J. Hawk, and a defensive back, Charles Woodson, withthree apiece. Jenkins was next with two and a half, and he didn’t playafter September.
Frank: The Pack totaled 27 sacks,which ranked only 25th among the 32 NFL teams. And they were 26th inrushing defense, which also shows the need for D-line improvements.
Artie: Anotherhuge injury was to safety Atari Bigby, who hardly played at all. Heshowed in ‘07 that he could be an above-average safety. Nobody steppedup as his replacement.
Frank: Eventually they movedCharles Woodson from the corner to safety, and what people willremember about that is Steve Smith out-jumping Woodson for the longpass that helped Carolina win at Lambeau.
Artie: And while Woodson was playing safety, you had a lesser player on the corner.
Frank: Bythe numbers, the Packers’ pass defense wasn’t terrible. They were 12thin the league in yardage allowed, tied for third in interceptions with22, had Woodson and Nick Collins with seven each, and returned six INTsfor touchdowns. But they also gave up 11 pass plays of at least
Artie: And it just seemed the defensive breakdowns always happened at crunch time.
Frank: Therewas the Smith play. There was the Houston game, where the Texans werepinned inside their 5-yard line but marched to the winning kick. Therewas the Tennessee game, where the Titans got the overtime kickoff and did the same.
Artie: Thelinebacking unit was way below average in pass coverage. It didn’t helpthat Nick Barnett went out with a knee injury in the second Minnesota game, but even he wasn’t having a real good year.
Frank: The sense I get with Hawk is that he has his good moments but isn’t showing what they hoped he would.
Artie: Whenthey moved him from weak-side to middle linebacker after Barnett’sinjury, there was some feeling that it was where he belonged in thefirst place. Last week the linebackers went on notice that “everythingis in play” for next season.
Frank: The 22interceptions helped the Packers finish the season at plus-seven inturnover differential. Only five teams were better, and they all madethe playoffs.
Artie: A positive number in that category usually means a winning record. Not this time.
Too Much Flag-Waving
Frank: OK, Mr. Sunshine, here are some really, really negative stats. The ones involving penalties.Artie: Man oh manischewitz, talk about your flag football!
Frank: ThePackers were close to leading the league in penalties per game (6.9)and they did lead the league in penalty yards per game (61.5). Thosenumbers were virtually unchanged from 2007.
Artie: Wait, you’re kidding me! McCarthy said they were gonna get that fixed.
Frank: Here’sanother bad stat: The Packers got 18 first downs by penalty but theiropponents got 33. In other words, twice per game the Green and Goldhanded over an extra set of downs.
Artie: Plus it seemed that in every game there was a penalty on an absolutely crucial play.
Frank: Inthe Houston game, they were driving toward a winning score when aholding call messed it up. They wound up having to punt and never gotthe ball back.
Artie: And in the same game, a kickoff return for a touchdown got wiped out by a hold.
Frank: Someother really bad stats involve punting; the Packers were 25th in theleague in net yardage. And you, my friend, were saying from about Week2 that they should put Derrick Frost on ice. How long did it take?
Artie: JeremyKapinos took over in Game 13. Until then, they kept saying, in one ofmy favorite McCarthyisms, that they had to “evaluate.” And that Frost“looked good in practice.”
Frank: In the cozy Hutson Center he was booming ‘em, huh?
Artie: Yeah,and when I’m home alone I imagine I’m Brad Pitt and Angelina’s my longsnapper. Anyway, they’ve signed Kapinos for ‘09, and also anotherpunter, so they can have a foot-for-all competition in camp.
A Nice Passing Grade
Frank: Onoffense, the Packers have some pretty good numbers. In passing, eighthin the league in yards gained, eighth in plays of 20 yards or more.Tied for first in pass plays of 40-plus yards, with 16. Fourth intouchdown passes (28) and many fewer interceptions (13).
Artie: But then again…
Frank: Iknew you’d say that. Thirty-four sacks allowed, ranking in the middlethird of the league, and a mediocre running game at best. They scoredonly 11 times on the ground and broke only 10 plays for 20 yards ormore. And against Carolina and Jacksonville, they couldn’t convert onextremely short-yardage plays when it might have turned the game.
Artie: Theyhad a musical-chairs thing on the O-line, partly from injuries but alsobecause they were trying to figure out what would work.
Frank: When draft time arrives, I guess they’ll be looking for some big boys.
Artie: On both sides of the ball. And McCarthy has said they’ll be locking in positions on the O-line, with nomoving around. Apparently, the muchtouted multiple-position scheme became a weakness.
Frank: Atthe “skill” positions, Greg Jennings had almost 1,300 receiving yards,sixth in the NFL, and Donald Driver had over 1,000. And Jordy Nelsonhad a nice year as a third wideout, what with James Jones missing somany games.
Artie: The wide receivers are clearly the Packers’ best unit.
Frank: In rushing, Ryan Grant got 1,203 yards…
Artie: Buta “quiet” 1,203, I’ve heard said. He missed a week of training camp ina holdout, then hurt his hamstring and didn’t really get going untilhalfway through the season. Besides that, the line wasn’t blocking realwell. But I have to wonder whether Grant just isn’t worth the big newcontract he got.
Frank: He broke a 57-yard run in the season opener, but that was it for explosive plays from Grant.
Artie: Fortunately,the Packers still have DeShawn Wynn, who broke a 73-yarder in the finalgame and looked good in limited time in ‘07. His problem has beenstaying healthy. But he runs with power and speed.
Mr. Rodgers’ Show
Frank: Nowfor the main man, who had a pretty nice season. Rodgers threw for 4,000yards with way more TDs than interceptions, which helped give him thesixth-best QB rating in the league. Not that I know how to figure outthat stat.
Artie: That would challenge Isaac Newton, Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking.
Frank: Rodgersseemed to make good decisions. Yeah, he threw a couple of interceptionslate in games, but that happens. He was very mobile, able to escape therush and keep plays alive.
Artie: He did take a pounding over the season, though, and played hurt.
Frank: Yeah,for a while it looked like that strained shoulder would take him down.You could see he was in pain, but he got them to the bye at 4-3 andafter the layoff the shoulder seemed OK.
Artie: If youhad told me in August that Rodgers would play every game and finishwith the No. 6 rating, I’d have said, “Wow! I’ll take it.”
Frank: And, lest we forget the man he replaced…
Artie: The diva?
Frank: Mr. Favre finished 21st in the QB ratings.
Artie: The diva sure took a dive in those last five games.
Frank: I was in New York when the Jets beat Tennessee to go 8-3. The tabloids were touting an all-New York Super Bowl, and one headline called Favre “Mr. Perfect.” But in the last five games he threw two TDs and nine INTs. Artie: What did the tabloids say then?
Frank: The morning after the Jets lost to Miami and missed the playoffs at 9-7, the New York Post declared: “Dump ‘Em: Losers Favre, Mangini Must Go.” The coach was canned, but the Jets’ owner wants Brett back for ‘09.
Artie: An opinion not shared by some of his teammates, I hear.
Frank: There are grumbles that he set up Brett Favre Inc. in his own little corner and didn’t mix in with the other guys.
Artie: I heard the comment that he “never went out to dinner” with any of ‘em. Maybe he was all the time studying his playbook.
Frank: I don’t think any Packer fan can say things would have been better if Favre had stayed.
Artie: Absolutely.With the Packers, he would have been working with a lesser offensiveline and a lesser running game than the Jets had.
What Happens Now?
Frank: So, Mr. Sunshine, what about the Pack in ‘09?
Artie: Hardto say. They could keep everything pretty much as is, have a gooddraft, possibly Ted Thompson has a nervous breakdown and signs afree-agent impact player, and they could climb to 10-6 and win thisweak division.
Frank: That’s what NFL parity is all about.
Artie: Butchanges do need to be made. Special teams were terrible; besides thelousy punting, they gave up seven kickoff returns of 40-plus yards, anda game-winning field goal at Chicago was blocked.
Frank: The special-teams coach, Mike Stock, fell on his sword and retired.
Artie: They’vegot a lot of work to do with their line play. Cripes, if they don’tspend their first three or four picks on linemen, something’s wrong.And there’s another worry: Can Aaron Rodgers play 16 straight gamesagain?
Frank: Behind him are Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm, rookies in ‘08.
Artie: Theinjuries to Jenkins and Bigby proved that depth in key areas waslacking. And where you really have no depth is at quarterback.
Frank: So the No. 2, who’s Flynn right now, better get plenty of off-season work.
Artie: Onemore thing: As a Packer fan, I thought there was something missing inthe area of “spirit.” They seemed to be, not flat, but there was aspark missing. And I don’t think it necessarily had to do with Favrebeing gone.
Frank: I think that was a factor. My imageof Rodgers is one of total cool, calmly waggling his fingers to get thenext huddle together. Whereas Favre might be yelling or bumping helmetsor something.
Artie: I look at the way Hawk plays. Heseems too careful, worried about making a mistake in his coverage,rather than just letting go.
Frank: No Dick Butkus, he.
Artie: Hey, do you suppose Butkus is available?
Frank: He’s a Bear, remember?
Artie: And pushing 70, too. All right, maybe as a second-stringer. Depth is key.
What’s your take?
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