Photo: hermosawave - Getty Images
Voting booths with red overlay
Despite everything you’ve heard, there are still plenty of reasons Democrats could do much better in November’s midterm elections than Republicans and much of the media expect. In fact, the future of American democracy depends on it.
Democrats certainly know in normal election years a new president’s party historically loses congressional seats in the first midterms because opponents angry over losing power are more motivated than the winners to vote in low-turnout midterms.
But every American also should realize there will never be another normal election year in this country until Republicans free themselves from the control of their defeated president and the violent militias and hate groups that support him who refuse to accept the results of free and fair elections.
Rather than distancing themselves from their divisive, unpopular president who was thrown out of office after a single term by the largest voter turnout in history, Republican leaders who know better have joined a lunatic fringe within their party in supporting Donald Trump’s preposterous lie President Biden somehow stole the election by manufacturing millions of fraudulent votes.
Extreme Candidates
As a result, Republicans will be saddled with a lot of extreme candidates in those November midterms they’re so confident of winning. Adding to the chaos will be Trump himself campaigning for the worst among them who are running against Republicans he wants to punish for accepting accurate election results or condemning his supporters’ terrorist attack on the Capitol.
Trump is one of the best agents Democrats have to get out the vote in their party. In the past two national elections, Democrats set new voter turnout records in the 2018 midterms flipping 40 seats to gain House control and in 2020 defeating Trump. 2022 could make it three in a row.
The absurd Republican candidates in the midterms include at least five running for House seats who actively participated in that violent Jan. 6 insurrection. A New Hampshire candidate promises to run from prison if he’s incarcerated for breaking into the Capitol.
|
|
The Ron Johnson Opportunity
Wisconsin already provided a prime opportunity in the midterms for Democrats to increase Senate control by flipping the seat held by Ron Johnson, a national embarrassment who’s denied the violence of the attack resulting in five deaths and serious brain injuries to police beaten with iron pipes, hockey sticks and baseball bats. He’s discouraged vaccinations during the latest surge of a new, highly contagious COVID variant endangering the lives of the unvaccinated.
Johnson could be joined on the midterm ballot by former Republican Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch running against Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Kleefisch enthusiastically supports Trump’s fraudulent election claims and Michael Gableman’s corrupt investigation into Biden’s victory in Wisconsin for Assembly Republicans that’s expected to recommend new Wisconsin voting restrictions.
All but the most dimwitted Republican leaders have to realize how dangerous Trump and his violent supporters are to the future of democracy. But they believe they need Trump’s supporters to win the midterms. They’ll worry about controlling the contempt for democracy in their party later. By then, they’ll be the ones under control.
The Good News
So here’s some more positive news about how much better the political landscape could be for Democrats in those fall midterms. The media have been warning us Republican state legislatures can easily win control of the House of Representatives with their usual corrupt gerrymandering of congressional districts in response to the 2020 census. Surprise, it’s not happening.
The latest analysis by David Wasserman, redistricting expert for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, concludes redistricting is on track to create a congressional map slightly less biased in favor of Republicans than it’s been for the past decade. It should actually add a few more Biden-won districts.
Wisconsin was specifically cited for one of the biggest ironies. After the racist anti-Obama tea party elections of 2010, Wisconsin and other Republican states drew such extremely gerrymandered maps it’s difficult for Republicans to make them any worse. In some Republican states, nonpartisan commissions and courts also are making a difference.
Here’s more positive news for Democrats you haven’t heard nearly enough about. Nobel-prize-winning economist and columnist Paul Krugman described the first year of Biden’s presidency as “a year of spectacular economic recovery.” In early November, a Federal Reserve survey of economists predicted a year-end unemployment rate of 5.8%. Instead, November’s unemployment was 4.2% declining further to 3.9% in December. If supply chain problems keep easing in the coming year to reduce inflation, Biden’s economic success will continue.
Here’s more. Not even Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema want their party to be the minority in the Senate after the midterms. They’ll vote for a substantial new package of Biden’s Build Back Better legislation before long to improve the everyday lives of ordinary Americans.
Biden and Democrats could go into the midterms in good shape after another successful year. That would be very good news for American democracy.
