In fact, there are no truly reliable polls even totell us who will be the candidates for governor of Wisconsin after the primary on Sept. 14.
We can be reasonably certain the Democratic nomineewill be Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett since he is the only major candidate onthat party’s ballot.
But anyone who claims to know whether MilwaukeeCounty Executive Scott Walker or former Congressman Mark Neumann will be theRepublican candidate is faking it.
Polls have very little reliability at a time whenfolks haven’t really started paying attention to the campaigns and no one knowswho will bother to vote in a low-turnout primary.
Anyone relying on Milwaukee media for information has the addeddistortion of the clear “homer” bias that has been demonstrated toward localcandidates.
That’s the reverse of the usual bias against big,bad Milwaukeethat traditionally exerts a strong influence on statewide elections.
I’ve said for a year that any mayor of Milwaukee would have toovercome historic odds to be elected governor. The last governor to be electedfrom Milwaukeewas Republican industrialist Julius Heil, who served two two-year termsbeginning in 1939.
One thing that could make it easier for Barrett,however, would be for the Republicans also to nominate a Milwaukee candidate.
Despite that, the Republican Party establishment hasfallen all over itself to embrace Walker, who pulled out of the gubernatorialrace four years ago when the party decided it was Green Bay Congressman MarkGreen’s turn.
But anyone who believes the party geniuses callingthe shots for Republicans this year have a clue what’s going on hasn’t beenpaying attention to Republican primaries around the country.
Repeatedly, the handpicked Republican Partycandidate has been upset by an outsider, often someone who is even morepolitically extreme and possibly harder to elect in November.
Walker, Neumann Similarities
Of course, when you try to compare Walker andNeumann, it can be difficult to determine who’s the most extreme. They differmore in style and personality than in ideology.
In the Milwaukeearea, Walkerdefinitely has the advantage of a local media willing to gloss over his recordto promote his candidacy.
Whether it’s county infrastructure falling intodisrepair or sexual assaults in the county’s mental health facility, apparentlyno failures under Walkerare horrendous enough to raise questions about his ability to manage thegovernment of the entire state.
Walker is free topresent himself statewide as a reformer who has held down property taxes foreight years without the local mediawhich really knows bettergiving a moreaccurate picture of the financial shambles of Milwaukee County.
Of course, Neumann is no more honest than Walker in the contrivedimage he has presented to voters.
Because there is no more damaging epithet in TeaParty politics than to call someone a “career politician,” Neumann uses thatvile obscenity to describe both Walker and Barrett.%uFFFD
Neumann wraps himself in the holy garb of anindependent businessman, one of those outsiders who can win a Republicanprimary because right-wing voters are fed up with those horrible “careerpoliticians.”
But if Neumann is not a career politician, it’s notfor want of trying. This is Neumann’s sixth political campaign, only two ofwhich were successful.
Neumann twice ran for Congress in the 1st Districtbefore finally getting elected to two terms. He also unsuccessfully ranstatewide as the Republican nominee against Sen. Russ Feingold in aspectacularly negative campaign.
So the fact that Neumann is a businessman instead ofa career politician was not his own choice. It was the choice of the voters.
In recent weeks, Neumann has attempted to presenthimself as a kinder, gentler opponent of creating jobs for the unemployed andpreventing poor families from living on the streets.
But there is little question that if Neumann werethe Republican nominee for governor, he would be the candidate best positionedand most temperamentally suited to run an aggressive anti-Milwaukee campaignagainst Barrett, playing on racial fears and resentment of the big city aroundthe state.
Walker, trying totake as many Milwaukeevotes away from Barrett as possible, can’t run an anti-Milwaukee campaign. Atthe same time, for a whole lot of folks out in the state, being Milwaukee’s county executive is as odious as being Milwaukee’s mayor.
We all look alike, you know.
Frankly, given the tone of most of the Republicancampaigns this year, it’s somewhat surprising more Republican leaders haven’tembraced Neumann’s negative advantages.
Watch out, though. In a lot of Republican primaries,voters have ignored their party leaders and nominated nasty little candidatesof their own.
