The 2017 Milwaukee Brewers wrapped up a roller coaster of a season over the weekend and were the last team eliminated from MLB playoff contention. Despite coming into the year with low expectations, the one game that stood between the Brewers and the Rockies for the National League’s final Wild Card spot is likely to produce “what if?” thoughts for years to come.
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The fact that the Brewers were even in position to make a late-season push, however, marks a significant change from where this team and organization were six months ago. On Opening Day FanGraphs gave Milwaukee a 1.1 percent chance of seeing postseason play, a number that eventually swelled to 35.8 percent in July and 23.9 percent as recently as nine days ago.
As one might expect, most of the biggest swings in the Brewers’ playoff odds have occurred recently as the team played with their season seemingly on the line several times over the last two weeks. There were also some major shifts earlier in the season, however. Here are the single biggest day-to-day odds shifts for the Brewers each month in 2017:
April 26: +1.8 percent
As noted earlier, the Brewers came into the season with just a 1.1 percent chance at reaching the postseason. They lost most of those odds on the season’s first day, as an Opening Day loss lowered their shot to 0.4 percent. A three-game home sweep against the Reds, however, got the Brewers back above .500 and within a game of first place.
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The game this day featured what might be Wily Peralta’s last win as a Brewers starting pitcher, as he worked around four solo home runs in five innings and his offense picked him up in a 9-4 victory. Meanwhile, the Cubs lost on this day (6-5 to the Pirates) and the Cardinals were off, so the Brewers gained ground on most of their divisional rivals. The win pushed Milwaukee’s playoff chances to 4.8 percent, their high-water mark of the season to date.
May 21: -3.3 percent
The Brewers beat the Cubs on Friday, May 19 to climb two games up in the National League Central for the first time, and the following day featured a “rainout” that sparked a feud between the two teams when the skies cleared and it became apparent that a game could have been played. The Cardinals did play and lost that day, giving the Brewers a 2.5 game lead and playoff chances that peaked at 13 percent, their highest of the season to date.
The Cubs came back rested on Sunday and trounced the Brewers 13-6 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate: The Cubs led 13-1 heading into the top of the ninth and allowed five runs before slamming the door shut on a victory. Chase Anderson allowed six runs in just four innings in his worst outing of the season and the Brewers lost ground to everyone as the Cardinals and Pirates also won their respective games. The day’s events combined to leave the Brewers as the fourth-most likely NL Central team to reach the playoffs at 9.7 percent.
June 11: -2.8 percent
The Brewers remained atop a weak division into June despite splitting four-game sets against the lowly Mets and Giants before heading out to Arizona. The two teams split the first two games of that series, with the Brewers once again sending Chase Anderson to the mound on a Sunday.
The final score of that Sunday loss was 11-1 but it wasn’t Anderson’s fault this time: He allowed just one run over six innings but picked up the loss when the four relievers that followed him to the mound combined to allow ten runs while recording just six outs. Neftali Feliz, Wily Peralta and Rob Scahill all pitched in this game and allowed runs. Those three pitchers combined to make just ten more appearances as Brewers after this day. The loss combined with the day’s other action dropped Milwaukee’s playoff shot from 9.6 to 6.8 percent.
July 19: -9.7 percent
After the aforementioned June game, the Brewers trended upwards for quite some time, going 19-10 to close out the first half and open the second and opening up a lead in the Central that stretched to 5.5 games on July 15. On the 15th the Brewers’ playoff odds reached 35.8 percent, their best mark of the season.
What took a month to build was demolished in a week, however, as the Brewers lost a game at home against the Phillies then went to Pittsburgh and were swept in a four-game set with the Pirates. The third Pirates game was the most damaging, as the Brewers took a 2-1 lead to the ninth but Corey Knebel and Jared Hughes allowed single runs each as Pittsburgh walked off with a ten-inning victory. It was the Brewers’ fourth straight loss and it combined with four straight wins by the Cubs to reduce the Central gap to 1.5 games and the Brewers’ playoff chances to 16.1 percent, nearly 20 percent down from where they had been four days earlier.
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August 20: +5.8 percent
The Brewers’ NL Central lead was all but forgotten by mid-August when they headed to Colorado for what would turn out to be a pretty important series with the team they ended up chasing down the stretch. At the time the Rockies had a solid grip on the National League’s top wild card spot and the league’s third best record at 67-55. The two teams split the first two games of the series, setting up yet another Sunday game with a series on the line and Chase Anderson on the mound.
Anderson allowed just one run over five innings in this game before being lifted early and allowing his offense to pick up the slack in an 8-4 win. Jesus Aguilar, who had hit a go-ahead pinch hit home run the night before, had two more on this day to power the offense. The day’s other action featured losses for the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, and the Brewers’ newfound 16.5 percent playoff odds were their best in over a month.
September 27, -14.9 percent
The Brewers postseason pendulum swung back and forth several times in the season’s final weeks, starting with a 6-1 stretch that saw them peak at 24.3 percent on September 19 and enduring three consecutive days against the Cubs where their chances dropped 9.6 percent, went back up 13.1 percent on a Travis Shaw walk off homer and back down 10.4 percent the next day, respectively.
None of those losses had quite as much impact, however, as a 6-0 shutout loss to the Reds on Wednesday. Homer Bailey salvaged an awful season by doing it all for Cincinnati that night, pitching seven shutout innings for the first time since 2014 and also doubling and scoring a run. Bailey had a 4.71 ERA against the Brewers in 2017 and a 6.94 mark against everyone else. The loss dropped the Brewers’ playoff chances to 4 percent and firmly into “need a miracle” territory. They were eliminated three days later.
