Photo: Garrett Mitchell - Instagram
Garrett Mitchell on base
Garrett Mitchell
Major League Baseball’s rule changes have created one of their desired effects in the first month of the 2023 season, as expanded bases and limited pickoff attempts have changed teams’ decision-making process around stolen bases. The Brewers, however, have suffered a reminder that the greatest disincentive to aggressive baserunning remains in place.
Garrett Mitchell was one of the breakout stars of the Brewers’ early hot streak, providing a combination of power, speed and defense that showed all the skills the organization was hoping would develop when they selected him with the 20th overall pick in the 2020 draft. His season likely ended in an instant on Tuesday, however, when he suffered significant damage to his shoulder on a headfirst slide into third base. He’s expected to have surgery this week.
Mitchell’s injury didn’t come on a stolen base attempt, but it was a similar play: He attempted to move up a base on a ground ball to the right side of the infield and had to dive in fully extended to beat the throw. It’s exactly the kind of slide a base stealer has to routinely make to be successful, and what happened to Mitchell is a big part of the reason some players and teams won’t push the envelope on the bases, no matter how the rules change to encourage it.
Three weeks into the season the average MLB team had attempted 18 stolen bases this year, an average of less than .9 attempts per game (the Brewers are slightly ahead of the curve, attempting 21 in their first 21 games). That’s up from under .7 attempts per game in 2022, but probably not noticeably so: A fan watching an entire week of games might expect to see one extra attempt over that time. Furthermore, there’s a wide disparity between the aggressive teams and the ones that have shied away: The Guardians and Cubs were the first teams to pass 30 attempts this season, while the Twins and Rockies combined to attempt just seven times in their first 43 games.
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In an ideal world, some of baseball’s top stars could also be among the game’s greatest stolen base threats. Many of them have already decided, however, that the risk is not worth the reward. The Angels have two of the fastest players in the sport in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, for example, but have publicly stated that they’re not going to risk their health on the bases. Trout led the American League with 49 steals as a rookie and stole 200 bases in his first nine MLB seasons but has attempted just five steals in four years since. Ohtani stole eleven bases last season but none after July 26, and attempted just two in his first 20 games this year. The risk of losing one of the game’s greatest stars for any length of time outweighs the marginal benefit of an extra base.
The Angels aren’t the only ones leaning this way. New Phillies shortstop Trea Turner has led the National League in steals twice in his first eight MLB seasons and has been successful on 234 of his 276 attempts in his career (nearly 85%, well above the break-even point). Before the season there was speculation that the new rules would unlock another level in Turner’s baserunning, but he’s not interested.
Scoring the Run
“Like I’ve said in the past, I can steal a ton,” Turner said to Jayson Stark of the Athletic. “But for me, it’s not about stealing the base. It’s more about scoring the run. And it’s more about being on the field. You know, asking people to steal 70 or 100 bases like guys used to do, I don’t know how they did it and stayed on the field.”
Through 22 games this season Turner had successfully stayed on the field: He led the NL in plate appearances with 102. He also, however, had only attempted four stolen bases. He was successful all four times.
A lot has been made of MLB’s improved baserunning environment, and with good cause. Stolen bases are exciting and a fun reminder of the incredible athleticism routinely on display in a major league game. They also carry a significant risk, however, and the teams that stay healthy this season will most likely be the ones that are a little more careful when picking their spots to run.
