Welcome to Craigtember

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Photo: Milwaukee Brewers - Instagram

Craig Counsell

Craig Counsell

It was an unseasonably warm summer weekend in Milwaukee, but at American Family Field it still felt like Craigtember.

The Brewers took two of three from the Phillies in dramatic fashion and had an opportunity to win a third before losing a late lead, and their recent success follows a long enough trend that it’s been given a name: Craigtember.

Since Craig Counsell took over as manager of the Brewers in 2015 the team is 691-615 in all games, but they’ve been especially good in the season’s final month, compiling a 131-103 mark in games played on or after September 1 (including some October games not included in the post above). This year the Brewers started their annual hot streak a little early, going 19-10 from August 1 through Sunday’s loss in the series finale against the Phillies.

These hot finishes have been exceptionally memorable because they’ve been relevant in the standings:

• In 2018 the Brewers entered September in third place in the NL Central but rattled off 20 wins in the month, including nine of their final ten regularly scheduled games, to come all the way back to tie the Cubs and eventually win a tiebreaker game to clinch their first division title in seven years.

• The Brewers were only the National League’s seventh best team when they entered September of 2019, but rallied late with a red-hot final month to secure the final Wild Card berth. That team went on to come within a few plays of derailing the eventual World Series Champion Washington Nationals in the Wild Card game.

Another extended second half hot streak was the story of the Brewers’ next big success: In 2021 they were already a good team before the All Star break but went on a major roll afterwards, winning 28 of their next 46 games to open up a 12 ½ game advantage, the largest of any team in franchise history.

The 2023 Brewers still have some work to do to approach that record, but their recent run of success belongs among those in terms of the impact it’s had on their prognosis for the season. As recently as August 2 there was a significant chance the Brewers would be left out of the six-team National League playoff field FanGraphs had their postseason odds at just 64.8% on that day after a walkoff loss to the Nationals and a Cubs win over the Reds. The Crew’s chances of playing meaningful baseball in October have climbed nearly every day since, however, and were at 98.7% even after Sunday’s loss. Along the way their chances of winning a World Series have also nearly doubled, going from 2.4% on August 2 to 4.3% on Sunday night.

The ability to appropriately or accurately evaluate a manager’s performance is one of the skills that has long eluded the sabermetric movement. There’s no clear way to tell if the Brewers are outperforming their expectations in September fully or in part because of Craig Counsell, or if he’s just been fortunate to be along for the ride with some teams that have gotten hot at the right time. Either way, there’s also a risk that this could be the last “Craigtember” in Milwaukee: Counsell has managed this entire season with a contract that expires following the season, a rare situation for a manager, and extension talks that were supposed to have picked up by now have not led to a resolution. 

Whether this is the last Craigtember or just another of many, however, the Brewers’ recent play has put them in a good position to potentially reap the benefits of what has recently been their best month.