A Tale of Two Seasons for the Brewers' Infield Corners

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Photo Credit: Scott Paulas/Milwaukee Brewers

The infield corners are largely “set” for the Milwaukee Brewers for next year, but Travis Shaw and Eric Thames’ ability to repeat or build upon their 2017 success might be one of 2018’s most interesting storylines.

Shaw’s breakout year has, of course, been well documented. He set new career bests in virtually every offensive statistic in 2017, was selected by the local Baseball Writers Association of America as the Brewers’ Most Valuable Player and Top Newcomer and is the only Brewer likely to be named on at least a few National League MVP ballots when those results are announced in a few weeks.

All of that conversation to date has ignored a salient point about Shaw’s 2017 campaign, though: His offensive pace slowed significantly down the stretch. On August 16 Shaw went 1-for-4 with a solo home run to improve his season batting line to a .293 average, .366 on-base and .556 slugging. In the 37 games that followed he hit just .215/.299/.385, lowering his on-base plus slugging for the season by a full 60 points. Among qualified batters Shaw finished third on his own team in the latter stat, trailing Thames and Domingo Santana.

A lot of factors could have played into Shaw’s late-season stumble. First and foremost, 2017 was easily the longest season of Shaw’s career on and off the field: Much was made of his newborn daughter’s struggle with a heart condition, and it would be understandable if the challenge of trying to play a full MLB season while managing that stress caused him to tire prematurely.

There’s also a possibility that Shaw’s statistical decline was at least partially attributable to bad luck. Shaw batted .335 on balls in play before August 16 but just .247 from that point to the end of the season. The 2017 National League average was .302, so Shaw was well above that mark for a long stretch of the season but well below it down the stretch.

The real risk, however, is that Shaw’s success and his role as a middle of the order hitter on a playoff contender caused teams to search for and find weaknesses in his game. 2017 was Shaw’s first time facing most National League pitchers, but that advantage could have worn off late in the year as scouting reports on him became more detailed.

Across the diamond, 2017 was also a tale of two seasons for Eric Thames at first base. He was nearly superhuman for the season’s first month, batting .345 with a .466 on-base percentage and .810 slugging. He was significantly more human after, however, hitting just .226/.335/.455 from May 1 through October 1.

Like Shaw, the concern with Thames is that opposing pitchers and teams figured something out about his tendencies that caused his production to shift. Certainly the caliber of pitching he saw in the major leagues this season is different from what he experienced in South Korea, especially when it comes to fastball velocity. Opposing pitchers didn’t always press that advantage in 2017, however: FanGraphs’ pitch type data shows that teams threw him fastballs just 53.8 percent of the time, compared to 56.8 percent against the Brewers as a team.

Even Thames’ power numbers, really the lone bright spot in his mid-to-late performance, show some sign of concern: Thames had 40 extra base hits after May 1 (including 20 home runs) but drove in just 44 runs, suggesting that much of his damage came in plate appearances where pitchers opted to challenge him without runners on base. Consistently batting second behind a collection of struggling leadoff hitters left him with an abundant number of at bats with the bases empty. 20 of Thames’ 31 home runs in 2017 were solo shots, and nine more came with just a runner on first base.

Travis Shaw and Eric Thames will probably both be in the lineup on Opening Day and frequently beyond for the 2018 Brewers, and they’ve earned those honors. Both of them, however, have questions to answer about their ability to sustain their first-year success as Brewers.