If you read my Bucks playoff preview a couple of weeks ago, I predicted the Bucks to lose their first round series against the Bulls in six games. After the Bucks lost the first three games of the series (although they should have won Game 3—more on that later), I had a knot in my stomach that I'd overestimated this young team. Yet, somehow the Bucks have turned the series around, winning the last two games in convincing fashion, and Game 6 will be tipping off tonight.
The series felt hopeless, until this happened at the end of Game 4, reinvigorating Bucks nation:
Then came Game Five, when the Bucks dominated the Bulls despite the Bulls attempting 29 free throws compared to the Bucks' 16. If you paid attention to the officiating and the way the TNT analysts handled it, you could tell Milwaukee was not supposed to win that game. Michael Carter Williams absolutely dominated Derrick Rose in the matchup and Khris Middleton came up huge every time the Bucks needed a big shot. Also, Giannis Antetokounmpo quietly had his best game of the series so far.
Contrary to what entitled and arrogant Chicago Bulls fans may think, the Bucks have been the better team in this series. Shaq has gone on the record stating that the Bucks should win this series. Milwaukee has played as a more cohesive unit, they've shown more heart, they've gotten better every game of the series and they've done absolutely no complaining about the egregious preferential treatment that the Bulls so obviously receive from the officiating thanks to the big-market bias.
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Here are five keys to tonight's game.
1. The continued strong play of John Henson.
Before the series began, the Bulls' biggest strength was their front court of Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol. Yet, somehow and someway, Bucks' big man John Henson has emerged as a player capable of changing the game on the defensive and offensive end of the court. Whether it be through his shotblocking, rebounding or electrifying putback dunks, he has made a huge difference in the series.
2. The continued poor play of Derrick Rose.
If you went to Game Three or Game Four, you had to sit through Bulls fans chanting "MVP, MVP, MVP" anytime Derrick Rose stepped to the free-throw line. Let me be clear about this: Rose will never win another MVP award in the NBA. He's not even in the top five point guards in the NBA any longer. In fact, he ranked 22nd in the NBA in player efficiency rating this season, among point guards alone.
Rose obviously has the world on his shoulders. He's never proven to be a winner, ever since chocking away a national title for Memphis in 2007 by missing his free-throws down the stretch. Couple that with him finally being healthy after years of injuries and you've got a stew going. Rose has averaged nearly five turnovers a game in the series and has been irritatingly vocal whenever a call doesn't go his way (which is rare). He's playing with a mental burden that very few have to deal with and hasn't proven that he's able to perform at a high level when the game is on the line.
3. Michael Carter Williams' Ankle
Michael Carter-Williams had a phenomenal Game 5 and reminded Bucks fans why the team dealt fan-favorite Brandon Knight in exchange for the young MCW.
Carter-Williams suffered a scary moment in Game 5, as he appeared to turn his ankle and went to the locker room to get it taped up.
Somehow, Carter-Williams returned and hit big shot after big shot throughout the fourth quarter of Game Five, even though it was later on confirmed that he was playing on a sprained ankle. He'll need to play through the pain and win his matchup with a fiery Rose again in Game 6.
4. Overcoming the inevitable officiating bias.
The Bulls are one of the most physical teams in all of the NBA and yet somehow manage to commit less fouls than the Bucks in every game of the series. The officiating has been absolutely heinous at best in the series and somehow the Bulls still haven't been able to put the Bucks away.
The most glaring example of this preferential treatment was in Game 3, when Jimmy Butler heaved up a desperation three-pointer at the end of the shot clock completely untouched and was rewarded with three foul shots that ended up allowing the Bulls to take the game into overtime. Every point counts in the playoffs and there's a feeling of dread for Bucks fans who know the team will face a default five- or six-point handicap based on unearned free-throws rewarded to the Bulls in tonight's game.
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5. Jason Kidd continuing to win the coaching chess match with Tom Thibodeau.
Chicago Bulls Head Coach Tom Thibodeau obviously has the more experienced, more talented, more playoff-ready team, but has had no answer for Jason Kidd's innovative play calling, augmented two-three zone defense and strong strategic rotations.
It's no secret that these playoffs represent Thibodeau's last games helming the Bulls and, as the Bucks ride a wave of momentum in the series, there is clearly a feeling of unrest in the Chicago locker room.
Final Verdict
The Bulls will come to play tonight with an intensity they haven't shown yet in the series. The Bradley Center won't be United Center North tonight, as the Bucks owners have made sure that tickets to Game 6 are far more available to Bucks fans than Bulls fans. Look for Bulls shooting guard Jimmy Butler (the best player in the series by a long shot) to take over the game for extended periods of time.
If the Bucks continue to play the absolutely outstanding team defense they have in the series, score 90+ points and get strong play from Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Henson and Giannis, Milwaukee will pull this one out in a nail-biter.