Photo Credit: Mike Morbeck
The Green Bay Packers finished the season on Sunday with a narrow victory over one of the NFL’s worst teams. The Detroit Lions came into the game starting third-string quarterback David Blough and with many of their other starters out with injuries. The Packers had plenty to play for with a first-round bye on the line, yet they were barely able to squeak by, continuing a trend of just barely beating opponents and looking less than impressive in doing so.
We should absolutely celebrate this Packer season. They are one of the most successful teams in the NFC, and they’ve put themselves in a good spot for postseason success. That said, they have played far too many games like this most recent one, and, unfortunately, teams that keep winning close games against inferior opponents tend not to have long shelf lives.
The football analytics website Football Outsiders measures overall team efficiency with its flagship statistic, DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), and going back to 1985, the 2019 Packers are the second-worst 13-3 team on record.
That’s not to say they still can’t be successful in the playoffs. The defense continues to play well, and Aaron Jones has proven himself to be one of the best backs in the game. What they really need in order to be a serious postseason contender is for Aaron Rodgers to get hot and to start taking what the defense gives him on a more regular basis.
Rodgers is stubborn to a fault in forcing the ball to Davante Adams regardless of the coverage scheme and playing right into the hands of opposing defenses. The Lions did what many recent opponents have done against Rodgers and flooded the secondary with defensive backs, while using their one truly good player, Darius Slay, to shadow Adams. Rodgers reacted by firing deep ball after inaccurate deep ball beyond the coverage, often forgoing the safer option underneath. Rodgers had 28 incompletions in this game—a season-high for any NFL quarterback, and those low percentage bombs were to blame. When throwing downfield, Rodgers was 3 of 16, with two touchdowns and one interception.
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When Rodgers checked down, the play was often successful, and the Lions often left crossers to Allen Lazard and Jimmy Graham open. Once the receivers cleared the middle, Aaron Jones was also open for substantial gains. Eventually, when his hand was forced and they had to mount a frantic comeback, Rodgers started hitting some of these, but his decision-making and alarming lack of accuracy are what got them in trouble in the first place.
Rodgers finished the regular season ranked 13th as a passer according to DVOA, continuing a streak of less than impressive seasons from a player many think of as the greatest ever. Last season, he at least had the excuse of being injured; but this season, with Rodgers healthy and with a theoretically better scheme, the Packers’ offense scored 376 points, which is exactly the same number they scored in 2018. Even with an improved running game, the results just weren’t there.
In the Playoffs, It’s All About Aaron
After their well-earned bye, the Packers are most likely to face the third seed New Orleans Saints, assuming they take care of the Minnesota Vikings in round one. The Saints are one of the NFC’s best teams and a tough matchup for the Packer offense, boasting an elite run defense. The Saints will almost certainly take Aaron Jones out of the game and leave it to Rodgers to finally step up or be knocked out. The Philadelphia Eagles, another potential opponent, are the most injury-plagued team in the playoffs, but they own a win over Green Bay, and, like the Saints, excel against the run. The Packers’ best matchup may actually be against the Seattle Seahawks, though I personally want no part of that team in a playoff game.
While Rodgers’ receivers did let him down with a few drops, they were also frequently open. Matt LaFleur’s system may be new, but it is working in terms of creating opportunities for easy completions and big plays. This team has gotten by leaning on the running game, but that will get more and more difficult the deeper they go into the playoffs. Rodgers also missed a few of those deep balls against the Lions by mere inches. That’s how close they are to true greatness.
