Packers and Seahawks Learning from Week 1 Struggles

×

Expand

Photo Credit: Jim Biever/ Packers.com

Next week the Packers play the Seahawks in what is likely to be the biggest game of the weekend. While you can’t learn much from one week of football, it can tell you something about tendencies, and about how offseason moves are likely to impact a team. The Packers did exactly what they were expected to do, but their week 2 opponent was not so fortunate. While the Seahawks have been a perennial thorn in the side of the Packers during the Carroll/Wilson regime, they should be hearing all sorts of alarm bells after their lackluster opener.

The Packers and Seahawks both entered the seasons as already elite franchises looking to improve upon what was already great success. The Packers went about it in the standard way of trusting Ted Thompson to acquire young, cheap talent through the draft. The Seahawks, losers of the Super Bowl on what can only be described as a freak, bad luck interception, went a different direction. In an effort to improve their passing game they traded for All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham.

This was a calculated risk. Russell Wilson had an excellent year as a passer in his rookie season of 2012, but since then the Seahawks had excelled as a defense-first running juggernaut, and Wilson has struggled as a passer. In 2014 he ranked 19th as a pure passer according to Pro Football Focus, just under Eli Manning, and he was a solid if unspectacular 8th in 2013. In each of the last two seasons Wilson was called upon to pass sparingly, and his weapons were some of the NFL’s worst, but their offense overall was supremely effective and Wilson, to his credit, was every bit as dangerous with his legs. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks were by far the most efficient running offense of 2014, able to exploit all of the NFL defenses that had adjusted to the typical pass-happy NFL scheme. There have been few offenses as efficient and low risk as the 2013 and 2014 Seahawks.

Jimmy Graham is a lot of things, but one thing he isn’t is a good run blocker. He’s occasionally been adequate, but Pro Football Focus rated him the 15th best run blocking tight end last season, and in 2013 he was rated 45th, one of the worst blocking tight ends in all of football. Graham is a great receiver, but he is a problem in the run game, and his presence of the field telegraphs a pass. Compounding this issue, to acquire him the Seahawks traded away center Max Unger, the best run blocker on the team and according to Pro Football Focus, and the 4th most valuable player on the Seahawks in 2014.  It’s not an exaggeration to say he was the heart and soul of their running game. Acquiring Jimmy Graham for Max Unger isn’t simply an upgrade to the passing game for Seattle; it fundamentally changes the way they play offense and forces them to rely on the pass more than they ever have under Wilson. In week one it failed miserably in a 34-31 loss to St Louis. Marshawn Lynch was hyper-inefficient with just 73 yards on 18 carries and Wilson, one of the most efficient running quarterbacks there is, averaged under 4 yards per carry. Graham got his TD and the Seahawks put up points, but they took a lot of plays to do it, and got a lot of help from defensive and special teams touchdowns.

The Packers face the Seahawks in week two, and while the Packer victory over the Bears may seem underwhelming to some, it is the Seahawks who truly failed to impress. The Packers were facing a well-coached, but fundamentally undermanned team in the midst of a rebuild. The Bears are bad, but they know it, and they’re approaching it in a professional manner. The Packers did exactly what they should do to a team with inferior talent. While the final margin was only eight, they controlled most of the back half of the game. They’ve looked better, but ultimately Aaron Rodgers just did what he does and the Bears had no shot. But the Seahawks…

Seattle’s week one loss to the Rams is embarrassing; however, it’s most interesting as a harbinger of things to come. The Seahawks were in many ways perfectly constructed to take on the Packers. Their secondary is uniquely able to take away the Packer depth at WR, and in the past their power-rushing read-option was the kryptonite to Dom Capers 3-4 scheme. The 49ers and Seahawks have used it in 3 consecutive years to take the Packers out in the playoffs. But now the Seattle line is extremely suspect, and if they cannot create and maintain a lead over the Packers, everything turns upside down.

The Packer defense is built to have a lead, and Dom Capers wants to force you to pass. The stars on the Packer defense are pass rushers (Matthews and Peppers) or defensive backs. They almost dare you to run, if you can. In the past, Seattle’s response has been a simple “OK, no problem”, but this year is different. Now the Seahawks have to pass to be effective. Their defense is still quite good, but it will be more difficult for their offense to sustain long drives, they will probably commit more turnovers, and the defense will be called upon more frequently and suffer fatigue. Most importantly, the Seahawk offense now plays into the hands of the Packers’ strength on defense. If they can no longer dominate with Lynch, they can no longer dominate at all.

Getting Jimmy Graham was the kind of superficial move that looks good on paper, but it reminds me more than anything else of the 2001-2002 Milwaukee Bucks’ acquisition of power forward Anthony Mason. On paper it looked like the Bucks were one of the NBA’s elite except for a rebounder and a low post presence. Mason should have filled the void perfectly. In reality Mason was an unmitigated disaster, slowing their pace, demanding offensive possessions that would have been better handled by almost anyone else, and fundamentally changing the team. Graham is great on paper. He’s an elite receiver on a team that sorely lacks an elite receiver. But he also fundamentally changes the Seahawks from a historically great power running team into a conventional, average NFL offense. The Seahawks remain formidable, but their decline is underway. Losing Unger was just the start, as cap dollars eaten up by Wilson’s new deal start to impact other important non-skill positions.  Don’t be surprised if the Packers upend them on Sunday night, because they’re facing a very different, and as far as the Packers are concerned, much weaker Seahawk team.