Illustration by Tim Czerniakowski
Lambeau Field illustration
As the Packers enter uncharted territory after moving on from future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, they find themselves in an ideal spot for a quick rebuild. The NFC North features a declining Vikings team, a still rebuilding Bears’ team facing uncertainty at quarterback, and the up-and-coming Lions, who will be relying on a bottom third defense. It’s a bad division, and even though it’s fair to say the Packers are rebuilding, if they manage to hit on a few draft picks, there is a good chance they contend anyway.
To make the playoffs, the Packers will only need to be average, and average is easily achievable with this roster. An offseason binge on young offensive talent should allow new quarterback Jordan Love to operate in ways that Rodgers simply could and would not. Rodgers is an all-time great, but he relishes being the captain of the ship, diagnosing the defense, and picking the matchups he wants. That’s actually not how the Matt LaFleur offense is supposed to operate. LaFleur is a disciple of 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan, and their offense focuses on physical mismatches, using the middle of the field, and putting receivers in a position to generate yards after the catch. It’s an extremely quarterback-friendly offense if run properly, but it sometimes requires targeting young, unproven players. Aaron Rodgers loves his veterans, avoids the middle of the field, and plays favorites, often to his detriment. If Love can avoid these tendencies, he can be an improvement, even if he isn’t as technically proficient, but he will need some help.
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The Packers haven’t had a reliable pass-catching tight end since Jermichael Finley, and production at the tight end position is necessary for the offense to work as it should. To address this, the Packers added two great prospects in this draft. Both Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft were among the most athletic players in the draft at any position, and according to the NFL combine aggregation metric Relative Athletic Score, they both resemble Kansas City’s Travis Kelce more than any other tight end. Musgrave is a vertical burner, and more of a big slot, capable of stretching the field. Kraft is a more physical mauler, but still dangerous once the ball is in his hands.
Power Running, Dynamic Passing
Having a pair of good tight ends is essential as it allows the LaFleur offense to seamlessly flip between a power running look and a dynamic passing formation based on the defense. Having skilled tight end play in the middle of the field creates some of the easiest throws in football, perfect for a first-year starter. More than anything, it will be incredibly difficult for any defense to account for the Packers as a running team, as they still feature a formidable offensive line, and veteran Aaron Jones. If any defense goes heavy to stop Jones, the speed of second year receiver Christian Watson, plus the new tight ends, and rookie slot receiver Jayden Reed, will immediately create a mismatch. If defenses skew light, Jones and AJ Dillon should be able to capitalize.
While Jordan Love is a huge question mark stepping in as the starter, he couldn’t be entering a better situation. Love has made tangible progress shortening his long delivery, which led to so many interceptions in college. He will need to improve on his accuracy if he is truly to succeed, but even if he doesn’t, the Packers will have the flexibility to move on next season should he not work out.
The bigger question for Green Bay is, as usual, on defense, where countless high draft picks have failed to produce an average unit under coordinator Joe Barry. But even on defense there is reason for hope. First round pick Lukas Van Ness, an edge rusher from Iowa, should give the Packers one of the fiercest edge groups in the league, especially when Rashan Gary returns from injury. Jaire Alexander is also still around to anchor one of the better cornerback units in the NFL.
The defense may still have issues stopping the run due to a lack of talent on the defensive line, and at safety, but compared to their peers in the NFC North, the Packers are in better shape where it really counts. If Love is average or better, this team likely makes the playoffs. If he struggles, the team will have several high draft picks they can use to replace him for 2024.
