Brewers Let the First Pitch Go By

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Photo: Christian Yelich - Twitter

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

Three St. Louis Cardinals pitchers combined to throw 23 innings against the Brewers over the weekend, and for the most part the Brewers’ batters let them dictate the narrative.

The trio of Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas combined to face 81 Brewers batters in the three-game series, and their first pitches to those batters were uncontested a large majority of the time. Brewers batters took 61 of the Cardinals starters’ first offerings, 37 of which were called balls and 24 were called strikes. Cardinals pitchers started with an 0-1 advantage on a taken strike in nearly 30% of the plate appearances in the series.

Brewers batters, meanwhile, swung at the first pitch in just 20 times against the St. Louis starters. On those swings they put nine balls in play, going 3-for-9 with a home run (Luis Urias).

The Brewers’ tendency to take the first pitch is not new. Entering play on Sunday they had swung at the first pitch in less than 25% of their plate appearances on the season. Their 1061 swings in those occasions were the lowest total in all of baseball and more than 60 below than the next lowest team (the Guardians and Pirates, who each had 1129).

Conversely, the Brewers had taken 3187 first pitches as a team this season, including some players who did so a large majority of the time. Christian Yelich has taken the first pitch in 382 of his 471 plate appearances this season, meaning 81% of all of his trips to the plate start with him letting the first pitch go by. Several other Brewers regulars are also above 80%: Mike Brosseau, Jace Peterson, Kolten Wong and Rowdy Tellez.

It’s a common baseball adage that the most important pitch in the sport is “strike one.” Entering play on Sunday MLB batters had taken 3410 first pitch balls this season, and in those plate appearances they batted .255 with a .372 on-base percentage and .430 slugging. In plate appearances that started 0-1 they batted .214/.259/.337 in those same statistics, 204 on-base plus slugging points lower.

Vulnerable

The Brewers’ tendency to take the first pitch makes them vulnerable at times to pitchers who take that opportunity to get ahead. As noted above, Christian Yelich takes the first pitch most of the time. He’s also among the league leaders with 224 plate appearances this season that start with an 0-1 count. When he falls behind 0-1 in the count his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging fall by 57, 97 and 76 points, respectively.

The flip side, of course, is that taking the first pitch is the only path to a 1-0 count. Yelich has taken 218 first pitch balls this season, the fourth-most in all of baseball. When he gets ahead 1-0 in the count his average, OBP and slugging go up 52, 102 and 81 points, respectively.

Taking the first pitch as often as the Brewers have this season creates another drawback, however: predictability. Attacking Brewers hitters early in the count had to be part of Adam Wainwright’s strategy on Saturday, when he threw first pitch strikes to 19 batters. The Brewers took 13 of them, swung and missed or fouled off two more and put just four of them in play. During the sixth, seventh and eighth innings he threw first pitch strikes to eleven consecutive batters, with just three swinging the bat. Two of them got hits (Andrew McCutchen singled and Luis Urías homered), but the remainder started their trips to the plate with an 0-1 count. Opposing batters have a .592 on-base plus slugging after falling behind 0-1 against Wainwright this season, as compared to a .780 mark when he starts 1-0 and a .911 mark when they put the first ball in play.

In the end the Brewers’ much-maligned offense is often not as bad as some would suggest: Their .735 team OPS ranks fifth in the National League, they’re fourth in walks and second in home runs. Their current approach creates some challenges against pitchers who pour in early strikes, however, and they might be well-served by coming up looking to do damage early a little more often.