Eric Thames answered any lingering questions about his health over the weekend, going 2-for-3 with a double and a home run on Saturday just two days after being scratched from the lineup with back stiffness and remaining fresh enough to be back in the lineup for three more at bats on Sunday. Now that he’s back on track to be ready for Opening Day Thames faces two larger concerns: Possible encroachment on his playing time by Ryan Braun and a systemic underappreciation for his offensive profile.
As the Brewers continue to work with Ryan Braun on a possible move to first base there hasn’t been a lot of discussion about what that means for Thames, who does not have a clear opportunity to remain in the lineup if his defensive position is occupied. Braun was the first baseman in Sunday’s lineup (with Thames as the designated hitter) and has demonstrated an early capacity to make the necessary plays there, which is not good news for the Brewers’ other candidates to fill that position.
It’s worth noting that Thames’ performance is at least partially to blame for his potential demotion: He batted just .226 from April 26 through the end of the 2017 season (118 games), a low number that is difficult to overlook at a prime offensive position like first base. Looking at that number in a vacuum, however, causes one to miss the fact that Thames also drew 61 walks over that time to close out a season where he finished second among qualified Brewers hitters with a .359 on-base percentage.
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Across baseball, hitters who frequently get on base via free passes tend not to get the appropriate level of credit for that skill. For an example, consider FanGraphs writer and Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe’s recent comments when asked about Joey Votto in a chat. Votto has reached base nearly 2,600 times in his career but about a thousand of those times have been walks, causing Jaffe to discount his Hall of Fame case for a lack of hits. Among players with at least 1,000 hits in their careers only Ty Cobb, Rogers Honrsby, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams had higher on-base percentages than Votto’s .428 mark.
Thames has a long way to go to deserve to be compared to Votto, of course. He’s a better comparable for another recent Brewer who became a polarizing figure due to his high walk rate and low batting average: Rickie Weeks. Weeks, Thames and Prince Fielder (three times) are the only three Brewers in the last 15 years to qualify for the batting title while walking in 13.5% or more of their plate appearances. Thames and Weeks’ abilities to work a count and draw walks were both overshadowed by the accompanying result: An inflated strikeout number from regularly going deep into counts.
Another Brewer just missed a 13.5% walk rate in 2017 and, not surprisingly, he’s also a polarizing figure: Domingo Santana walked 73 times in 607 plate appearances, slightly more than 12%. In fact, as things stand right now the Brewers have an opportunity to have three of the National League’s most prolific walkers in their lineup together: New Brewer Christian Yelich, Thames and Santana were 10th, 11th and 13th in the league in bases on balls last season and the assorted projection models at FanGraphs all predict all three players will continue to walk at a similar rate.
Eric Thames has some work to do to improve his consistency (something he’s attempting to accomplish via literature, apparently), and if he can do so his value could skyrocket. Even if he doesn’t, however, his ability to reliably get on base and force opposing pitchers to work to get him out gives him an underappreciated amount of value.
