Photo Credit: Jeramey Jannene (Flickr CC)
Pitchers and catchers report to Maryvale Baseball Park for spring training in 37 days, so it’s about time for “crazy idea season.”
Each year at the start of spring training teams talk a big game about strategic changes they’re considering making for the season ahead. Maybe they’re going to bunt more (or less), be more aggressive on the basepaths or shuffle a longtime regular’s position in the lineup. These statements usually generate a headline or two during the first week of camp and are all but forgotten by the time Cactus League games start ten days later. With that said if this is the time of year when the Brewers are willing to consider fundamental changes then they could be well served to consider taking a step outside the norm with their starting rotation.
Assuming they make no further additions, the Brewers will come to camp in a little more than a month with at least nine pitchers that could make a reasonable case to start games in April: Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jhoulys Chacin are near locks at this point, but 2017 Opening Day starter Junior Guerra, Brandon Woodruff, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Hader, Brent Suter and Aaron Wilkerson may all get an opportunity to work their way into a job. One-time top prospect and winter league standout Jorge Lopez may belong in this conversation too, and Jimmy Nelson almost certainly takes someone’s place when or if he’s ready to return from shoulder surgery.
The Brewers’ strength in depth, however, is tempered a bit by question marks about longevity. Of all of Milwaukee’s rotation candidates only Davies and Chacin pitched full, healthy seasons as major league starters in 2017. Davies made 30 starts for the first time in his career, and Chacin did it for the first time since 2013. Their health and success may have been partially due to consistently brief outings: Davies averaged about 5 2/3 innings and 94 pitches per start, while Chacin was at 5 2/3 and 92.
Stay on top of the news of the day
Subscribe to our free, daily e-newsletter to get Milwaukee's latest local news, restaurants, music, arts and entertainment and events delivered right to your inbox every weekday, plus a bonus Week in Review email on Saturdays.
In past years early season off days have allowed the Brewers’ starters to ease into their routines with extra days of rest in the first few weeks. That is not the case in 2018: From April 2-30 they play streaks of ten consecutive days, another ten consecutive days and seven consecutive days. Tradition would suggest the Brewers should select five rotation candidates and hope for the best in terms of their health and performance. At least to open 2018, however, it might be worth asking if six is a better number.
Opening the season with six members in the starting rotation would leave the Brewers in a position to use their depth to slightly reduce the workload on their top starters, hopefully leaving them fresher and ready to carry the team down the stretch in September. It could also be the only way to expect a full, healthy season as a starter for pitchers like Hader, who has never thrown more than 126 innings in a season and worked just 99 2/3 in 2017, or Nelson, who will likely need time to ramp back up following a long rehab. Starting the year with a six-man rotation also provides a built-in solution if injuries strike: If a pitcher has to skip a start or go on the disabled list the Brewers would have the option to temporarily or permanently switch back to a normal five-man staff in response.
Carrying six starting pitchers does, however, create a roster challenge, as keeping an extra pitcher in the rotation means one roster spot isn’t available for a bench player or bullpen arm. If the Brewers opt to follow the latter route they could be forced to ask starters to work deeper into games: A bullpen working one man short and being consistently asked to pitch in the sixth inning or before likely wouldn’t remain effective for long. Having relievers capable of working multiple innings would be a near necessity in this scenario.
In the end, however, given the Brewers’ strong depth but lack of pitching star power, it might be worth considering spreading the workload around a bit more in an effort to stay healthier and more effective in the long run.
