Illustration by Melissa Lee Johnson
The Milwaukee Brewers won 96 games last season, just edging out the Chicago Cubs for the division crown. This was a surprise to most analysts, but in retrospect, adding not one but two MVP candidates (including Christian Yelich, who won the MVP award) makes an enormous difference. The Brewers also made creative use of their bullpen, a hallmark of their success, and if not for some tough offensive luck in the playoffs, they very well may have made their first World Series appearance since 1982.
The big question now is whether the team can maintain this level of success, as teams that make a big jump tend to come back down to Earth the following year. The good news in Milwaukee is that they took bold steps to shore up weak positions, and their formula for success isn’t some gadget-driven fluke; it’s the model for how the game will be played going forward.
Offense
Brewers fans may think of new catcher Yasmani Grandal as the man who almost cost the Los Angeles Dodgers a trip to the World Series and who was frequently benched due to his issues blocking balls in the playoffs. Don’t be fooled by one bad week, because in reality, Grandal is one of the best catchers in baseball. Offensively, he provides an enormous upgrade over Manny Piña and Erik Kratz, but his ability to frame pitches for strikes is unparalleled, with a league-leading 15.7 framing runs saved in 2018. Grandal’s addition to the roster should mitigate any regression the team might otherwise face.
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Mike Moustakas is also returning to the team, this time as a second baseman, at least until top prospect Keston Hiura is ready to make the leap later this year. As a dead-pull power hitter, his home run hitting should be accentuated by Miller Park. Because Milwaukee shifts so much on defense, he will not be exposed at his new position.
The rest of the offense should remain formidable with Yelich, Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun and Jesús Aguilar anchoring the lineup. In 2018, the back end of the lineup could often be leveraged by opposing pitchers, but even if Orlando Arcia’s bat doesn’t bounce back, it will not be so easy this year. This lineup is stacked.
Pitching
The Brewers were true innovators last season. They flipped the script on how pitching is supposed to work and used their bullpen (with frequent help from their AAA farm team) to overcome a mediocre starting staff. The secret to their success lies in the fact that starters struggle most during their third time through the order. The Brewers decided to be extremely conservative with any starter in this situation, lifting them for Josh Hader or some other outstanding reliever, at the first sign of danger. Craig Counsell would then use some combination of Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel and platoon specialists to get through the game. It worked brilliantly. In terms of run prevention, the Brewers were one of the best teams in the game.
They do have some vulnerability, as executing this strategy requires a deep bullpen, and Hader is extremely important for shutting down dangerous situations. But it’s also much easier to find relievers than it is starters, and because the supply is robust, this strategy can withstand some injuries and bad luck.
The Brewers may also have better starting pitching than last season with the growth of Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. While the starters are not as traditionally important for Milwaukee, it would be nice if they could provide the bullpen with more frequent rests this season. Jeffress has been experiencing some shoulder issues in camp, but as long as Hader and Knebel can go, the bullpen should continue to dominate opponents in 2019.
The Brutal Central
The single biggest challenge for the Brewers is the insanely difficult division they play in. The St. Louis Cardinals signed first baseman Paul Goldschmidt this offseason, thereby immediately putting them into serious contention. The Cincinnati Reds completely overhauled their roster, adding Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to an already potent offense. The Cubs haven’t done much of anything, but they are still big money juggernauts who lost the division by only a single game last season.
Fortunately, with the additions of Grandal and Moustakas, Milwaukee has enough to withstand the onslaught. They are once again a threat to win 90-plus games and should keep the fun times rolling at Miller Park all summer long.
