Milwaukee Brewers fans, rewarded with only four playoff years since the team arrived in 1970, know all about disappointment. But the latest two doses have been especially bitter. Last year the Brewers led their division for five months but collapsed down the stretch. This year, after making few changes, they’ve spent almost every day in last place. They hit the all-star break at 38-52, with their final 72 games important only for what optimism they might create for 2016.
How can the Brewers become contenders again? And when, realistically, can fans expect it? The Fairly Detached Observers swing away at finding answers...
Frank: I guess I was slightly off in predicting the Brewers as a 2015 wild card.
Artie: I still have a chance to look brilliant. But only if they pass Cincinnati.
F: Last year the offense vanished for a whole month. Now it’s just back to feast or famine.
A: They need a real baseball-team offense, not the Doug Melvin blueprint of “home run or strikeout.”
F: They’re 10th in the National League in batting average right now, compared to eighth for the entire 2014 season. They’re sixth in runs and fifth in homers, same as last season, but also 12th in on-base percentage (seventh last year), partly because they’re once again 12th in drawing walks.
A: Free swingers, you betcha, with a run differential of minus-49. But one reason is that the pitching, at least in the starting rotation, has been a problem.
F: And largely attributable to the No. 1 and 2 starters.
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A: If Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza were having only mediocre seasons, the Brew Crew would be only six or seven games under. 500.
F: And now Garza is hurting again. This time it’s shoulder tendinitis; last year a rib-cage muscle cost him several starts in August.
A: The same kind of “oblique” thing that’s had Wily Peralta out for almost two months.
F: The bullpen has been solid but in terms of NL rankings the overall pitching has slipped. They’re 12th in ERA compared to 10th for last season; 10th-most in issuing walks compared to third last year; 12th in opponents on-base percentage compared to fifth. And like last year, they’re next-to-worst in home runs allowed.
A: What, are Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper back?
F: Nobody expected Lohse to be 5-10 with a 6.17 ERA. And even the biggest pessimist, namely you, would say that with their talent the Brewers shouldn’t be this far behind.
A: Yeah, and the movie Ishtar shouldn’t have been that lousy with Elaine May directing Dustin Hoffman and Warren Beatty.
F: After the relatively stand-pat winter didn’t work, the Brewers can’t think minor tweaking is the answer.
A: I don’t want a total strip-down like Houston did because the Crew’s young pitching has promise. But changes have to start now!
F: One obvious move before the July 31 trading deadline is dealing Aramis Ramirez, who’s in his last season. Another is finding a taker for Lohse, whose contract is expiring.
A: Why stop there? Melvin should say, “Make me an offer,” in reference to almost everyone who could be swapped for young talent.
F: Such as?
A: Gerardo Parra, who’s on lots of “wish lists” in articles I’ve seen. Adam Lind, although he’s filled the Brewers’ “black hole” at first base. Carlos Gomez, a free agent after next season who’ll want a fat, and be offered, contract. Jean Segura, if only because there’s a very promising shortstop, Orlando Arcia, in Class AA.
F: And several relief pitchers will be pursued, including closer Francisco Rodriguez.
A: The only position player I’d call untouchable is Jonathan Lucroy. If he left there’d be a black hole at catcher to go with a vacancy at third and maybe first.
F: Ryan Braun may not be untouchable but he’s probably unmovable. His five-year, $105 million contract begins in 2016, and he has that nagging thumb issue.
A: But they shouldn’t touch the young starting pitchers. Peralta, Mike Fiers, Taylor Jungmann, Jimmy Nelson and maybe Tyler Cravy have the makings of an above-average rotation.
F: There’s another big decision looming. If they play better, get relatively close to .500, is that enough for Mark Attanasio to stick with Melvin as general manager?
A: He can stick around as head of concessions.
F: Here comes the scenario you’ve been describing to me for weeks.
A: Melvin departs and the new GM is... Craig Counsell.
F: Who was in the front office when Attanasio and Melvin decided in May that manager Ron Roenicke had to go.
A: It makes perfect sense. As the manager Counsell is getting an in-depth look at the roster. Besides, he has a three-year contract, and if they look outside for a GM, who’d want the job if he couldn’t choose his own manager?
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F: But as GM, Counsell could pick his own guy. So you have it all figured out. But whoever’s in charge, can the Brewers contend in ’16?
A: If the young pitching clicks, it’s plausible they could get to .500 next year, at best. The NL Central is mighty tough! But in 2017 there could be genuine hope.
More on the Brewers
A: Another possibility with Melvin would be that they manufacture some title like “head of baseball operations” and give it to him.
F: But would they still get another GM? Who presumably would have to accept Counsell as manager and Melvin hovering somewhere above it all?
A: There are some teams, I think, who have some arrangement like that.
F: The Diamondbacks this year made Tony La Russa something called “Chief Baseball Officer,” but Dave Stewart is the GM.
A: Who knows how that works, and would it work here? And you’ve also got Attanasio, who is a very hands-on owner. And not afraid to make big moves; just ask Ned Yost or Roenicke.
F: So then whoever the GM is, he should pretty much entertain any and all options?
A: For one thing, bring the kid up at SS and move Segura over to second base. I remember that even when the Brewers got him from the Angels, there was talk that he’d ultimately wind up at second.
F: That’s if they haven’t dealt Segura away. Because Scooter Gennett hasn’t seized that spot the way they hoped he would.
A: At least he’s up above .200 since his return from exile in Triple-A.
F: Then again, the Brewers have some experience in having a second baseman—this one not named Gennett—struggling all season at the plate. And by the way, has anyone picked up Rickie Weeks since Seattle released him last month?
A: Not that I know of. Now, back to the young pitching. Jungmann, after his complete-game masterpiece against the Dodgers, has made seven starts. So has the scouting book on him gotten around yet?
F: I’d say yes, except that it isn’t a book anymore. Teams have instant access to video of all games, and I’m sure every team has someone assigned to scout only the video.
A: So Jungmann, like every other player, will have to make adjustments to whatever adjustments they’re making to HIM.
F: Next year Garza could be an “elder statesman” amid the young rotation. He is signed through 2017, which could make him not very tradable right now. And if he pitched up to expectations... But how confident can you be that he’ll give you a full season’s worth of starts?
A: It would just show us all how cruel baseball can be, if next year they get some real quality out of the young starters and the bullpen implodes.
F: Now, that’s the pessimistic Artie I know! But of course there’s no way to predict relief pitching, individually or collectively.
A: No way!
The Crystal Ball
F: I looked up our April predictions, and in the current standings we nailed the NL division leaders—the Cardinals, Nationals and Dodgers. Not that those were the toughest calls to make.
A: Hey, let’s take what we can get.
F: In the AL, though, we’re not alone in saying that we, um, didn’t see the Astros coming, or the Twins coming, or the Royals returning.
A: But some teams we did see coming, like Cleveland and Toronto, are still right in the wild-card race.
F: And really, as last year showed with two sub-90-win teams in the World Series, you can almost ignore the division standings and focus on the wild-card races.
A: So we’re not looking all that bad in the foresight department.
The Beefed-Up Bucks
F: Now let’s turn to a team that I assume you’re more optimistic about in the short term. The big stories for the Bucks this month are the signing of center Greg Monroe and the re-signing of forward Khris Middleton.
A: Monroe is definitely an all-star caliber guy. Last season in Detroit he averaged 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds.
F: And there were other additions in recent weeks.
A: The rookie they drafted, Rashad Vaughn out of UNLV, and the point guard they got from Toronto, Greivis Vasquez.
F: And departing were Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia, at least partly for money reasons. So now the Bucks will have one of the youngest starting lineups in the league, with Monroe the “graybeard” at 25.
A: Young and plenty talented! Monroe, Jabari Parker, assuming he’s fully recovered from his knee injury, plus Middleton, Michael Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo...
F: And there’s John Henson coming off the bench...
A: Which he did very productively last season. Now watch, it would be just the time, given the history of the Bucks, for the Legislature to pull the plug on that new arena and they wind up leaving town in a couple of years.
F: You’re speaking there as a Bucks fan, exclusive of the issue of who should pay for a new arena.
A: Oh yeah.
F: They could become the Las Vegas Bucks, as you have speculated for years.
A: That’s starting to catch on now, because Seattle and Vegas have been mentioned as two possible relocation spots. So people are starting to see a light bulb and say, “Hey! Las Vegas Bucks. That’s clever.” Well, I wrote the book on that!
F: I can verify that I’ve heard those words from your sneering lips for years.
Bo Ryan’s Farewell Tour
F: How about Bo Ryan taking a victory lap with his final year of coaching. Maybe once he retires he’ll make the Basketball Hall of Fame. How they failed to vote him in last year I can’t fathom.
A: I’m not privy to his thinking, but he’s 67, and after these last couple of excellent seasons he’ll have to play a lot of freshmen.
F: Which means UW fans can hardly expect a third straight Final Four.
A: And Bo may have been thinking that if he retired now and his longtime assistant, Greg Gard, took over, Gard would be on the hot seat for a decline in the record. So maybe Bo thought, “I’ll take the hit,” and then depart. If that figured into his thinking, it’s commendable.
Frank Clines covered sports for The Milwaukee Journal and the Journal Sentinel. Art Kumbalek’s trade value never changes.
