A Weak AL Central Gives Brewers an Interleague Advantage

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Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr CC)

If you were looking for an opportunity to see a quality American League team at Miller Park this season, then you had better clear your calendar for the next couple of days. Cleveland limps into Miller Park on Tuesday after getting swept by the Yankees over the weekend, and at 17-17 they’re the best interleague opponent the Brewers will face in 2018.

The Brewers and their NL Central counterparts got a favor from the schedule makers this season: Baseball’s interleague play rotation matched up the Central divisions on a year when only Cleveland appears positioned to contend on the AL side, and even they’re scuffling lately: They blew a 4-0 lead in the eighth inning against New York on Sunday, losing 7-4 to ball back to .500 on the season. Sunday was also the final game in their stretch of 18 in 17 days, so fatigue could be an issue in their recent skid.

The Brewers’ interleague rival, the Minnesota Twins, won on Sunday for the third day in a row but still sit at just 13-17 on the season. The Twins were a surprise contender in 2017, reaching the postseason a year after going 59-103, but appear to have taken a step back in 2018. Coming into play on Sunday they ranked 12^th in the American League in runs scored and tenth in runs allowed. The Twins and Brewers play six times this season, in Minnesota on May 18-20 and back at Miller Park July 2-4.

Milwaukee already beat up on the Royals in Kansas City this season, but will welcome them back to Miller Park for two more games in June. Even with a win on Sunday the Royals are just 11-23 on the season, which puts them on pace to be just the fourth MLB team to lose 110 games since 1969. The only thing that might save them from that fate is sharing a division with the Tigers and White Sox.

The White Sox have lost three games in a row to the Twins and enter play on Tuesday (against the Pirates) at 9-23, a game back of the aforementioned Royals in the standings with two extra games to play. Their 5.12 ERA would be the third worst in their franchise’s 118 year history. Lucas Giolito, who Baseball America ranked as one of the game’s top 25 prospects for four consecutive seasons from 2014-2017, has a 7.03 ERA through six starts. The Brewers face the White Sox three times the first weekend in June.

Finally, the Brewers complete their 2018 interleague slate with three games against the Tigers at Miller Park to close the season. The Tigers have been slightly better than some of their divisional rivals at 14-19 but came into the season with even lower expectations: On Opening Day FanGraphs gave them just a 0.7% chance of reaching the postseason.

All told, the Brewers have 20 interleague games in 2018 against teams with a weighted average winning percentage of just .400. Milwaukee has had a winning record against interleague opponents in three of the last four seasons, and the schedule has certainly given them a head start towards continuing that trend this year.

Unfortunately, the Brewers’ NL Central rivals have similar or perhaps even greater advantages. The Cubs play six games against the White Sox and their interleague opponents average a .383 winning percentage. The Cardinals, benefitting from six games against the Royals, have an even weaker slate of interleague opponents at .379. Even the Pirates, who will see Detroit six times, have a group with a .394 average win percentage.

This very much could be a factor in races for the league’s best record and Wild Card spots, however: While the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals face the American League Central, the NL West leading Diamondbacks face the AL West’s Astros and Angels and the NL East favorite Nationals face the Red Sox and Yankees. If the Brewers are still chasing postseason homefield advantage and/or final playoff spots when they close out the regular season against Detroit in September, then it will likely be at least partially because their schedule tipped the scales in their favor.