Photo credit: @Brewers on Twitter
Travis Shaw (left) may spend more time at second base to make room for newly acquired third baseman Mike Moustakas (right). Moustakas was traded to the Brewers from the Kansas City Royals on July 27, 2018.
Over the span of a few days last week the Milwaukee Brewers became one of the MLB non-wavier trade deadline’s most active teams, acquiring reliever Joakim Soria from the White Sox on Thursday and third baseman Mike Moustakas from the Royals on Friday. Both players made their Brewers debut during the Giants series as Milwaukee took three of four and appeared to perhaps right the ship a bit. It’s unclear, of course, if Soria and Moustakas’ acquisitions played any significant role in that turnaround.
It’s also not clear at this point how the two newest Brewers will fit into the organization’s short-term plans: Soria was closing for the White Sox but was not immediately installed into that role by the Brewers and will likely need to settle into a role Brewers relievers have largely accepted and embraced, where nearly any bullpen arm can be called upon to enter the game at nearly any time. That’s not always a thing relief pitchers handle well. Furthermore, Soria’s 2018 numbers are noticeably better than his 2016 and 2017 seasons, so the Brewers are gambling on the assumption that he’ll continue to defy his career trends in his age 34 season.
Moustakas’ acquisition creates even more question marks about roles. Both he and Travis Shaw have played nearly exclusively at corner infield positions (mostly at third base) and until Saturday neither had ever played a professional inning at second base. Their ability to be in the lineup at the same time in any of the Brewers’ 50+ remaining games all but requires one of them to learn a new position on the fly during a pennant race and be able to focus on this major defensive change without impacting their offense. Furthermore, having Moustakas in the lineup means selling out for power and sacrificing on-base skills a bit: He has a .305 career on-base percentage.
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Late Season Gamble
These trades, like most others, are a gamble for the Brewers. Years down the road fans and analysts alike may point to these moves as a key moment in a successful season or the stumbling block that accelerated a late-season collapse. If these deals work, however, then the Brewers will have an added luxury: They have the contractual and financial capability to keep both players around.
Soria is in the final season of a three-year, $25 million contract signed with Kansas City in December of 2015. The deal pays him $9 million plus incentives in 2018 (the Brewers owe him around $4.2 million, with the White Sox covering a little more than $1 million of that) and has a $10 million mutual option for 2019.
Soria would need to have a remarkable stretch run for the Brewers to consider exercising their half of that option, but it’s not entirely infeasible. Soria has significant closing experience, and if he finds his way into success in that role in Milwaukee then both sides would have some incentive to stick together: The Brewers could pencil Soria into their 2019 bullpen alongside Corey Knebel, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Matt Albers, Dan Jennings and Taylor Williams and have a group locked down that projects to be among baseball’s best. Meanwhile, Soria would avoid having to take a chance on entering free agency at age 34, a risk that didn’t work out well for many last winter.
Moustakas is one of those burned by the free agent market a year ago, as he was forced to wait until March to accept a one-year deal to return to the Royals after MLB Trade Rumors predicted he’d get five years and $85 million. Moustakas is going to earn about $5.5 million plus incentives in 2019 and the Brewers are on the hook for slightly less than $2 million of that, plus a potential buyout of his 2019 option and additional incentives for plate appearances. His mutual option for 2019 is worth $15 million if exercised. All told, Moustakas is guaranteed almost $11 million less than he would have received if he had accepted the Royals’ qualifying offer last November.
As noted above, Moustakas’ ability to be an impact player on this roster likely depends on his or Travis Shaw’s ability to play second base. It remains to be seen if that will work out but if it somehow does, the Brewers could look to keep him around and reload for 2019 with an infield featuring Moustakas, Shaw, Orlando Arcia and Jesus Aguilar or Eric Thames. Moustakas left a lot of money on the table by not taking the Royals’ qualifying offer last winter and would almost certainly have to think twice before taking that risk again by turning down his half of a $15 million mutual option for 2019.
Of course, a lot has to go right for the Brewers to have any interest in retaining Soria and Moustakas at those prices. If these moves do turn out to be the spark that powers the Brewers’ stretch run, however, then their mutual options could provide an opportunity to try again with largely the same roster in 2019.
