So I’m crunching the numbers and sifting through Tuesday’s election results.
Now, I know it’s comparing apples and oranges, since Democrats didn’t have a hotly contested gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race to bring out voters, but I’ve got to say that Republicans turned out almost three times the voters that Democrats did. But is that enough? I mean, the GAB predicted that this would be a near-record primary turnout, largely because of Republican enthusiasm. That fell far short, though, at 19%. So much for those crazy Republicans.
For governor, it’s not surprising that the Republican candidates won more votes than the Democrats in the race. More than 614,000 voted for one of the GOP candidates; just 233,184 voted for either Tom Barrett or Tim John. In fact, Neumann, who lost on the GOP side, had more votes than Barrett (237,864 to 210,921). How many of those Neumann voters will cross over to Barrett or sit home because they hate Walker? Not many, if you ask me, so Walker can count on the bulk of them in November.
Like I said, apples and oranges… until you get to a more-even match-up. Take the race to replace retiring Congressman Dave Obey. Julie Lassa and Don Raihala, the Democrats, earned 33,592 votes. But the Republicans, Sean Duffy and Dan Mielke, almost doubled that vote, at 62,132. Duffy alone beat both Democrats. Again, the top-of-the-ticket GOP races brought out voters for this congressional seat. But they're not going to sit home in November.
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Closer to home, one of the hottest state Senate races on the Democratic side was Chris Larson’s challenge to Jeff Plale on the East Side of Milwaukee County. Despite huge sums of money poured into the race from outside interest groups, only 13,110 voted for either Larson or Plale. In contrast, the open Waukesha County Senate seat held by Ted Kanavas had a far higher turnout: 32,770 voted for either Rich Zipperer or Tim Dietrich.
Now, I know that the Waukesha voters were energized by the GOP gubernatorial race, and that this part of the state is overwhelmingly Republican. Kanavas’ old district is so heavily Republican that no Democrat even dared to put his or her name on the ballot for either the primary or the general election. In contrast, Plale’s former district is more mixed and he’d relied on Republican support to win elections. Those votes went to Republican primary candidatesto Walker, primarily.
The numbers are just as lopsided for local Assembly races. An open seat on the near South Sidea Democratic strongholdgenerated just 1,436 votes for the three Democrats looking to succeed Pedro Colon. The open seat on the near North Side long held by Polly Williamsanother Democratic strongholdgarnered a more respectable 3,920 votes. In contrast, the strongly Republican Wauwatosa Assembly seat being vacated by Leah Vukmir had six candidates who drew a collective 9,859 votes. Probably Walker coattails, but, still. Are these folks going to sit home in November just because their Assembly seat is locked in? No, not at all. Walker can count on them turning out.
On the other hand, Democrats should be delighted by Republicans’ choices on Tuesday. A Walker-Kleefisch ticket is flawed and far too conservative for Wisconsin. For example, they’re both 100% pro-life, meaning no abortion exemptions for women who have been raped or are the victims of incest or whose life is in danger, which is a hard sell to independent and moderate voters who are more compassionate than these two conservatives.
Brett Davis, in my humble opinion, would have drawn more crossover and independent voters than Kleefisch will. She’s simply too Sarah Palin-like in a state that doesn't like Sarah Palin and I don’t think she brings any geographic advantage to Walker, who already has his core southeastern Wisconsin GOP base sewn up.
That said, Walker can continue to count on fawning coverage in the Journal Communications-owned propertiesthe Journal Sentinel, WTMJ-4 and WTMJ-AMwhich will be happy to act as his de facto campaign spokespeople. But whether anyone in northeastern Wisconsin gives a rip about what Charlie Sykes or Patrick McIlheran has to say is up for debate.
In contrast, on the Democratic side, Tom Nelson adds a lot to the Barrett campaign. He knows how to win “outstate,” especially in the Fox Valley and northeast part of the state, where it looks like Neumann had an advantage over Walker yesterday. Nelson can exploit Walker's weak showing here to the Democrats' advantage.
Another plus for Democrats in November is the addition of Russ Feingold to the ticket. Now I know everyone's saying Feingold is in trouble this year, just like every incumbent seems to be white-knuckling it this year. But Feingold knows how to win elections. His toughest race was against Neumann in 1998. But he won handily in 2004, a presidential year, when he did better than Al Gore in Wisconsin. The thought of gaffe-happy Ron Johnson, purely a media and GOP insider creation, beating Feingold in the general election will bring more independent and Democratic voters to the polls in November.
So both Republicans and Democrats have something to brag about today. But the Democrats need to make their case to the voters and start generating enthusiasm, pronto, if they want to win in November.
