Dear EarthTalk: What are the prospects for reaching an international agreement to rein in carbon emissions significantly at the upcoming Paris climate talks at the end of the 2015?
-Jason Cervantes, Los Angeles, CA
All eyes will be on Paris thiscoming December when climate delegates from around the world gather there forthe 21st annual session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the 1992United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Achieving theirobjective—a legally binding and universal agreement limiting carbon emissionsto keep global warming below two degrees Celsius—has been elusive to date, butenvironmentalists remain optimistic that 21 could be their lucky number.
“I have every expectationthat negotiators will agree on an international climate pact in Paris,” saysJennifer Morgan, climate program global director for the World ResourcesInstitute, a sustainability-oriented nonprofit think-tank. “This first trulyglobal climate agreement will embody a new form of international cooperationthat can put the world on a path to a low-carbon economy.”
Morgan remains optimisticnot only because clean tech investments are surging worldwide while manufacturingcosts for renewables like solar plummet, but also because the world’s largestemitters, the U.S., China and India, are already making unprecedented climatecommitments. “All of this sends positive momentum heading into the climatetalks in Paris,” she adds.
Meanwhile, Jamie Henn, co-founder and strategy and communications director for the nonprofit 350.org, agrees thatthe prospects for some kind of deal look good, but wonders “if it will actuallysignificantly cut emissions.” He explains that some countries, led by the U.S.,are trying to transform the climate agreement from a legally binding documentthat mandates emissions reductions to a looser “pledge and review” approach,whereby countries voluntarily offer up their own emissions reductions andfinancial commitments.
“That makes it easier to geta deal, but it’s unclear whether the commitments will really add up,” saysHenn. “So far, it isn’t promising.” He adds that few countries have put forwardthe types of bold commitments necessary, while others, like Canada with its tarsands extraction, are flaunting the international consensus and aggressivelyexpanding fossil fuel development.
Given these politicalrealities, Henn thinks any deal struck at Paris is unlikely to “save theclimate” but could nevertheless send a powerful signal to politicians,investors and the public that the age of fossil fuels is coming to an end.“That would be a useful development, something that could lead to major shiftsin investment flows and decision making at the national level,” he reports.
Henn believes that while thefossil fuel industry may still be “calling the shots” here in the U.S., theclimate movement is making inroads. He cites the fossil fuel divestmentcampaign and mobilizations like the September 2014 People's Climate March,where upwards of 400,000 people took to the streets of New York City callingfor emissions reductions, as indicators that change may finally be afoot.
“The fight for a fossil fuel-freefuture will continue whether or not Paris is a success,” concludes Henn. “Thetalks are just another stop along the way to a 100% renewable future.”
Contacts:
World Resources Institute, wri.org
350.org, 350.org
EarthTalk® is produced by Doug Moss and Roddy Scheer and is a registered trademark of EarthAction Network Inc. View past columns at earthtalk@emagazine.com.
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