When I hear people in Congress talking impeachment, too often it’s from congressional members who have done very little for their constituents lately and are looking for some quick press coverage. It’s an easy applause line for a Democratic audience. When I hear some of my friends talking impeachment, I try to tell them they are only firing up Donald Trump’s base.
Impeachment by the House of Representatives and conviction by the Senate will happen if and only if there is a very clear smoking gun showing anyone other than Trump’s committed base that the president crossed serious criminal lines and betrayed our country. Conviction and removal from office will only occur when moderate Republicans in the Senate decide that Trump’s actions have become too serious to continue to overlook.
In President Richard Nixon’s final days, it was moderate and well-respected GOP senators like Howard Baker who met with Nixon and told him in unequivocal terms that it was over. He had to resign or he would be the first president to be removed from office through the impeachment process. Nixon understood. He resigned, and America spent the next several years healing itself.
Today, the environment is very different. The atmosphere in Washington, D.C., is far more partisan. In Nixon’s day, there was no Fox News and right-wing talk radio. There was no internet to host lunatic fringe groups who have their dubious interpretations of the facts or their own set of “convenient facts” and who, unfortunately for America, have a sizable audience. Also, there are now a number of Americans—many on the extreme right—who have their own private arsenal of military assault weapons.
Impeachments or recall elections are difficult because many Americans get a little uncomfortable with the idea of removing someone from office in the middle of their duly elected term. Courageous elected officials who make some necessary but hard choices often see their popularity go down when they are trying to do “the right thing.” If they had to worry about getting recalled or impeached every time their poll numbers go down, their courage would certainly go down as well, and unfortunately courage isn’t high among elected leaders right now.
Pushing for Impeachment Fires Up Trump’s Base
So, until it can be shown that Trump committed serious acts—such as colluding with a hostile foreign power to help him win the 2016 election—and moderate Republicans accept the evidence, impeachment and removal from office is just not going to happen. However, what will happen if people keep pushing for impeachment prematurely is that the president’s base will get more fired up and will work harder to keep the Republicans in control of Congress so they can continue to protect the president.
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Let’s not work against ourselves. We have an honest Republican prosecutor in Robert Mueller, and we need to patiently wait for his report. As long as his investigation proceeds unimpeded, I am convinced that many serious criminal acts by members of the current administration will be uncovered. There are also some very serious questions about Trump and his family and money laundering to be looked into.
Also, be careful what you wish for. If Trump is removed from the presidency, Vice President Michael Pence becomes president and will pose as a fresh face on the political scene. Pence is one of the most extreme right-wing politicians in Washington. He is a religious zealot and the darling of the extreme religious right. He is close to all of the right-wing special interest money and the billionaire types like the Koch brothers—which is one of the main reasons Trump selected him as vice president. He also understands how Congress works; he was part of the Republican congressional leadership.
Finally, if it gets to the point where the evidence is sufficient to convince enough moderate Republican senators that for the sake of America they have to muster the courage to vote to remove the president, there may also be enough evidence to remove Pence. If, at that time, the speaker of the House is a Democrat, don’t hold your breath on a dual impeachment and conviction. Trust me, moderate Republicans don’t have that much courage unless they plan to retire at the end of their term.
