From his perch in Washington, Chris Cilizza puts a Tommy Thompson senate run at 50/50.
Shepherd readers gave it a solid 65% chance.
Me, I’m giving it a zero. Zip. Nada. Zilch.
I think the former governor’s current flirtation with running for U.S. Senate has more to do with the weakness of Russ Feingold’s challengers plus Thompson’s mighty ego, helped along by the former Thompson aides at WPRI, who are blowing smoke up their former boss’s kiester with their laughable poll.
First, Feingold’s challengers. Apparently, he’s got two of them. Most visible is Terrence Wall, a gazillionaire real estate developer who attends Tea Party rallies to denounce taxes, but doesn’t pay income tax in the state. Hm. Even Charlie Sykes is skeptical about this guy.
Then there’s David Westlake, a tea partier whose slogan is “blaze orange means accountability!” Not exactly Lee Dreyfus’ iconic red vest, but apparently Westlake thinks it’s a winner. If his website actually worked I could tell you more about him, but it isn’t, so there.
So the Republicans have two weak candidates from the far right of the political spectrum. I don’t think they have much of a chance against incumbent Feingold, who even got support from W voters back in 2004 because, they told me, he’s forthright about his stand on issues and also supports gun rights.
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If I were a Republican kingmaker I’d start looking elsewhere too.
But mark my words: Tommy is not going to be the next senator from Wisconsin. He’s not going to run, but he’s not going to knock down the rumors, either. Tommy has a massive ego, and he’s built a cult of personality around him. He’s got strong support among the GOP elite (many of whom worked for him) but I’m not so sure that he’s got strong support among your average Republican primary voter these days.
No, Tommy’s got some problems with these folks, who are more likely to take their cues from Glenn Beck and the Tea Party crowd than Reince Priebus or Michael Steele.
First, Tommy was a huge spender in office, and the current crop of Republicans wants to cut spending down to the bone. Second, he was rather moderate on social issues, and even worked to get federal funding for family planning in the state. So that won’t meet the GOP’s purity test, either. He can try to talk about his work as the Secretary of Health and Human Services during the Bush years, but, then again, today’s Republican voters don’t want to have anything to do with federal programs or Bush’s Medicare overhaul so good luck with that.
Yup. Today’s state Republican Party is a lot different than Tommy’s partymore conservative, angrier, less willing to work in a bipartisan way to solve problems. Whether Tommy’s comparatively moderate, let’s-cut-a-deal style will appeal to Republican primary voters--more conservative than the folks who turn out in the general election--is very much in doubt. I mean, the guy finished sixth in the GOP presidential straw poll in Iowa in 2007. Not bad for a relatively unknown guy from Wisconsin, but I think it indicates how out-of-step Thompson is with the Republican faithful. And he’s got to win them over before he can work the general election crowd.
Then there’s Tommy’s ego. Right now, the guy is able to cash in on corporate boards and pretty much do as he pleases. The 68-year-old is a former executive--here and at the federal level--who’s used to calling the shots. Is this the kind of guy who’s going to be happy being the junior senator from Wisconsin? Especially if the Democrats hold on to the Senate and he’s in the minority party? Talk about frustration. He doesn’t need it.
Nope. Tommy is enjoying the spotlight right now. But he’s not going to run for Senate. Nope. He's more likely to play QB for the Vikings than to announce his candidacy for the Senate.
