The pessimists were right. The Brewers’rotation was the worst in the National League (5.37 earned-run average), whichmeant a capable bullpen wore down as the season progressed. Fielder and Braunlived up to their talent, but a possible breakout season for Rickie Weeks endedin May with a wrist injury and the team suffered big letdowns by J.J. Hardy andCorey Hart. Still, the Brewers fell just short of a winning season at 80-82.
Now a new season begins with big changes onthe Brewers’ roster.
Left-handers Randy Wolf and Doug Davis weresigned to shore up the rotation.
Two key positions up the middle belong toyoungsters, shortstop Alcides Escobar and center fielder Carlos Gomez, andthere’s a new starting catcher in Gregg Zaun. Optimists think that evenmodestly improved pitching and a consistent offense can carry the Brewers backto the postseason. Pessimists think there are too many question marks.
Count the Fairly Detached Observers among thepositive thinkers.
Frank: So far, the Brewers have reason to be encouraged about their No. 1task—improving the rotation.
Artie: The top three starters, however Ken Macha lines them up, are YovaniGallardo, Wolf and Davis. With a week to go until Opening Day, they had acumulative spring-training ERA of 3.99 over 13 games, with one bad outing forGallardo and Davis doing most of the damage.
Frank: And No. 4 Dave Bush, whose ’09 went south after he got nailed on thearm by a line drive, was at 2.13 over three outings. Yeah, it's only springtraining, but those numbers are promising—unlike Manny Parra's 6.32, virtuallythe same as his ’09 mark, and Jeff Suppan's highly unappetizing 7.71.
Artie: But "Soup" hasn't lost his Ned Yost-ian ability to see amansion in a mud wallow. After giving up four homers in four innings to theGiants in mid-March, he said, "I thought I moved the ball around prettywell."
Frank: As in, a couple sailed over the right-field fence and a couple wentout to left? But here's the thing: With young lefty Chris Narveson pitchingwell—no earned runs in his first three spring games—the five-man rotationdoesn't have to include Parra or Suppan. Parra can keep working with the newpitching coach, Rick Peterson, as a second lefty in the bullpen behind MitchStetter.
Artie: And Suppan can move to his new role as a $12 million"situational" righty—the situation being that if the Crew is down by12 runs, "It's Soup time!"
Frank: The thing is, I believe the rotation doesn't have to get hugely better to accomplish what theBrewers need, given their ability to produce runs. If you knock even a half-runoff last year's 5.37, it could mean eight or 10 extra wins that could take thedivision.
Artie: It's not like they're expecting Wolf and Davis to be another Sabathia.They just have to live up to their career stats, ain’a?
Frank: Look at the ’09 stats for the top pitching studs—Sabathia, RoyHalladay, Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander. I think onlyHalladay and Lincecum averaged 7 innings per start; the others were around 62/3. That's the way the game is played now—if a guy gets into the seventh, themanager jumps for joy. No team wants its starters to average 8 innings, butevery team wants ’em to at least get 18 outs consistently.
Artie: It's the difference between a guy going 5 1/3 or 6 1/3—and keeping itclose. And the bullpen here looks pretty good. The Sporting News ranks it the best in the N.L. Central.
Frank: LaTroy Hawkins, whom they signed to set up Hoffman, had some shoulderstiffness but seems OK now. Todd Coffey and Claudio Vargas are still lookingsolid and there's no reason to think that Hoffman will suddenly realize thathe's 42 years old.
Artie: Looking at the offense, there's some concern that they've lostsomething. But I don't really see it. Yes, there's a question of whether CarlosGomez will hit as well as Mike Cameron did. Gomez won't hit 20-plus homers likeCameron, but they're hoping Gomez's speed will get him on base for Braun andFielder to drive in.
Frank: The spring stats are mixed; with a week to go Gomez was hitting .310,but his on-base percentage was only .333. And last year he and Cameron bothstruck out in roughly 25% of their at-bats.
Artie: But from everything we hear, Gomez's defense is at least as good asCameron's, so he should help the pitchers that way. As good as Cameron was,sometimes he looked a step slow last year.
Frank: It started with the ’08 playoffs, that drive in Philadelphia by Chase Utley that he couldn'thold, which cost them Game 1. And last year he had several misplays at crucialmoments.
Artie: Otherwise on the offense, I think Alcides Escobar is going to hit alot better than J.J. Hardy did last year. Where's the loss there?
Frank: It would be hard to produce less than J.J. did in ’09.
Artie: I think Gregg Zaun might be an offensive step up from Jason Kendall.And although Felipe Lopez played well after they got him in July to play secondbase, a healthy Rickie Weeks will produce a lot more power. He was goinggreat—28 runs scored, 24 knocked in and 9 homers in only 37 games—when hiswrist betrayed him.
Frank: You've hit on the key to the Brewers' season, after thepitching—keeping Rickie on the field.
Artie: Absolutely. Weeks solidifies everything offensively, whether he leadsoff or hits second behind Escobar.
Frank: There are a couple of other concerns. Third baseman Casey McGehee andright fielder Corey Hart were both hitting under .200 with a week to go incamp. There's the fear of a "sophomore jinx" hitting McGehee andmessing up the No. 5 spot behind Fielder.
Artie: Hart's had trouble with his vision, finally settling on contact lenses.But he didn't do all that much last year, so there's not much to drop off from.And with Jim Edmonds having an excellent spring, there's a veteran presence asa backup outfielder, like Gabe Kapler was two years ago.
Frank: If Gomez struggles, could Edmondshandle the regular job in center at the age of 40, which he'll be in June? Butas a pinch-hitter, spot starter and defensive sub, he looks fine.
Artie: There's no reason to think Braun and Fielder will plummet from lastyear's combined 78 homers and 255 RBI. But now with Escobar, Gomez and ahealthy Weeks, there might be more base-stealing to create runs, too.
Frank: They could hardly steal fewer bases than last year (68). More runningwould give opposing managers something else to think about. And speaking ofmanagers, it's no secret that Macha isn't especially warm-and-fuzzy with hisplayers. Early in camp he said, "Am I going to change? I'm working onit."
Artie: That puzzles me a little. From the interviews I've seen, he comesacross well, and as a pretty smart guy.
Frank: Maybe he's not as big a back-slapper in the clubhouse as Yost may havebeen. But the formula for good team chemistry is simple: "W I N."
TheDivision Race
Artie: Winning is exactly what I think they're gonna do, at least in the N.L.Central.
Frank: Me too. A number of things have to go right, but that's true of anyteam. Plus the attitude is just as it's been since ’08: The future is now. Inthis market, management can't count on tons of money for big-name contracts,and specifically they can't count on keeping Fielder beyond 2011. So managementwill try to do whatever it takes to win this year.
Artie: The main thing, as always, is to stay healthy—especially Weeks. And inthe division race, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid about the Cardinals being sucheasy favorites.
Frank: I question their durability. Carpenter had a great ’09 but barelypitched the previous two years. Who's to say that won't happen again? AndAlbert Pujols has these nagging things—a seemingly perennial aching elbow, aback problem this spring—and if he goes down, good night.
Artie: They've turned third base over to a kid, David Freese, so there'spotential failure there. Catcher Yadier Molina is iffy for the start of theseason with one of those side-muscle things that can linger. Ryan Franklin wasgreat as a closer last year, but will he stay that way? And can Carpenter andAdam Wainwright really be as good as they were last year (36-12)?
Frank: We're saying enough will go wrong for the Cards and enough right forthe Brewers. And as for the Cubs…
Artie: They did some great "addition by subtraction" by getting Seattle to take MiltonBradley, but they're still full of head cases.
Frank: Carlos Zambrano supposedly is rededicated to growing up, but thatmight end with the first 3-2 call he doesn't get. Alfonso Soriano is amazinglyundisciplined at the plate and possibly the worst outfielder in baseball.
Artie: Ted Lilly is starting the season on the disabled list. The fifthstarter is Carlos Silva, who almost makes Jeff Suppan look like Greg Maddux.And has Carlos Marmol ever proved he can be the closer over a full season? Hehad 93 strikeouts in 74 innings last year, but also walked 65.
Frank: Elsewhere in the N.L. Central, I think the Astros will be so bad thatthey'll hand the Pirates a rare fifth-place finish. But how about the team youcalled a sleeping giant last year, the Reds?
Artie: They committed $30 million for a young Cuban pitcher, Aroldis Chapman,but the lefty has had back problems. Their previous mound phenom, EdinsonVolquez, is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. But there's still a lot of youngtalent, and if Scott Rolen has a revival at third base they'll have some pop. Isay they edge the Cubs for third place.
Frank: So we both say the Brew Crew will take the N.L. Central, and I thinkthe Cardinals will be the wild-card team. On to the other divisions!
N.L.East
Frank: Is there anyone who can stop the Phillies? They're trying to becomethe first N.L. team since the 1942-’44 Cardinals to reach three straight WorldSeries.
Artie: I think the Braves could do it. Real good starting pitching and maybea new young star in outfielder Jason Heyward.
Frank: I think the old guys at the corners, Chipper Jones at third andnewcomer Troy Glaus at first, are too old. And so is Billy Wagner, who's tryingto come off Tommy John surgery and be the closer.
Artie: But speaking of bullpens, the Phillies have big questions there. BradLidge imploded last year; does he have one more upswing on the roller-coaster?And although they added Halladay to the rotation, Cole Hamels had a bad ’09.
Frank: Still, I think the Phillies have enough, especially on offense, torepeat.
Artie: Don't forget the Marlins, who find a way to be competitive whilespending a buck two-eighty on payroll. But yeah, I think the Braves may be ayear away from dumping the Phillies.
Frank: Two things seem certain. Washingtonhas no chance, and this year neither do the Mets—music to this Yankee fan'sears.
N.L.West
Frank: I'm convinced the Dodgers are over the hill.
Artie: They didn't add much of anything over the winter. And Manny Ramirezmay be done; he didn't produce a lot after his drug suspension last year. Itlooks like Coloradoshould win that division.
Frank: I always wonder whether the Rockiesreally have the pitching they seem tohave. But they always have the offense, and I'm picking them too.
Artie: The Giants have the best pitching staff, top to bottom, in the league.But can they score enough runs, which they didn't last year? I think it'll go Rockies, Giants, Dodgers, with San Fran as the N.L. wildcard.
A.L.East
Frank: I'd love to see Tampa Bay return to the playoffs—at the expense of Boston, of course. But Idon't think the Rays' pitching is as strong as it was in ’08.
Artie: Not enough to top the Yankees or Red Sox.
Frank: I don't think the Yankees hurt themselves very much losing HidekiMatsui and Johnny Damon.
Artie: They picked up Curtis Granderson for center field, which should bereal good.
Frank: And although we talked about John Lackey being overpriced, he was areal good pickup for the Red Sox rotation.
Artie: And Adrian Beltre at third base. In Fenway Parkhe should really hit well.
A.L.Central
Frank: The usual suspects here—White Sox, Tigers and Twins scrambling for atitle with fewer than 90 wins.
Artie: Boy, everyone's gonna love those open-air games at the Twins' newstadium. They'll need a frostbite ward in April and September.
Frank: Another big chill is that closer Joe Nathan is out for the season.
They gaveJoe Mauer his huge contract and Jason Morneau is back from injury, but Nathan'sloss could be decisive.
Artie: I'm going with the White Sox, assuming Jake Peavy is healthy again togo 1-2 with Mark Buehrle. But the Tigers could be a surprise.
Frank: Assuming Miguel Cabrera keeps his head screwed on right after hisalcohol antics of last year. I'll pick the Tigers, but it's a tossup.
A.L.West
Frank: Just like in the N.L. West, I believe L.A.'s time has passed. No special reasonexcept that after winning five of the last six division titles, they're due fora fall.
Artie: It could happen; last year Texas and Seattle surprised folkswith winning records.
Frank: This year I'm saying Seattle,even though they gave themselves a case of Milton Bradley-itis. I like theirnew infielders, Chone Figgins and Jack Wilson, and their pitching looks realgood—assuming the abdominal strain bothering Cliff Lee doesn't become along-term thing.
Artie: Pitching got Texasinto contention last year, but it might not hold up again. Rich Harden is theirNo. 2 and he never lasts a full season. But the Rangers can score, and if I wassure Josh Hamilton would stay healthy, I'd pick them to win. But I'll say theAngels have one more year in ’em.
