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Tons of data havecome in during the past few days, so let’s get to it.
The Marquette Law School poll shows that onceagain the Scott Walker-Mary Burke race is more or less a draw. Walker’s numbershave improved slightly with likely voters, which the poll attributes to higherRepublican enthusiasm. Do you buy this? I’m not so sure. Yes, there’s acorrelation. But is it part of a trend? Will GOP enthusiasm last throughelection day?
More numbers thatcould factor into the election are new jobs numbers released today showing thatbetween March 2013 and March 2014 Wisconsinranked 33rd in job growth among the 50 states. We’re stillgrowing at about half of the national rate of job growth, which is pretty muchwhere it’s been at through the Walker years. And Wisconsin is still “dead last”in the Midwest, as Burke has stated time and time again.
Wisconsin shed evenmore jobs this summer, about 4,300private-sector jobs lost in August, and we still haven’t bounced back topre-recession levels of jobs. The Journal Sentinel, predictably, buries this inits article headlined with Wisconsin’s falling unemployment rate—a headlinethat Walker will no doubt use in a campaign ad.
In addition, Walker’sbudget deficit is starting to grow. The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureaufound that the state will have a $1.8 billion deficit going into the 2015-2017biennial budget. That’s squarely on Walker’s shoulders. What’s more, state Sen.Jennifer Shilling has calculated that the deficit will likely balloon beyondthat, once you figure in outstanding needs and departmental requests for thenext budget. That statedeficit will grow to $3 billion, Shilling says, pretty much what Walkerinherited during the depths of the Great Recession.
So, will any of thesenumbers matter in November? Will the few remaining undecideds swing one way oranother based on cold, hard data? I say no. I’ve realized, especially inWisconsin these past few years, that cold, hard facts mean little to voters.Voting is a hugely emotional act. You can debate facts—or “facts”—endlessly andyou will not be able to persuade someone to come over to your side. What reallymatters is an emotional connection.
Well, an emotionalconnection and voter suppression.
Which brings us tothe big news of the week, the federal appeals court decision to unblock to thevoter ID law.
As I wrote yesterday,the cold, hard facts that were accepted by the trial judge show that 300,000qualified, registered Wisconsin voters would be disenfranchised by thislaw. Another 70,000 qualified but not registered voters would be as well. AsDale Ho from the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project calculated, the state would haveto issue roughly 6,000new ID cards each day throughout the seven weeks leading up to the Nov. 4election to allow all of these qualified voters to cast a ballot on that day.
Possible? I don’tthink so.
The 2010gubernatorial election was decided by 124,638ballots. Surely the GOP—and Walker—want to ensure that margin holds firm.What better way to protect one’s margin of victory than by erecting barriers atthe ballot box?
The Marquette Law School poll shows that onceagain the Scott Walker-Mary Burke race is more or less a draw. Walker’s numbershave improved slightly with likely voters, which the poll attributes to higherRepublican enthusiasm. Do you buy this? I’m not so sure. Yes, there’s acorrelation. But is it part of a trend? Will GOP enthusiasm last throughelection day?
More numbers thatcould factor into the election are new jobs numbers released today showing thatbetween March 2013 and March 2014 Wisconsinranked 33rd in job growth among the 50 states. We’re stillgrowing at about half of the national rate of job growth, which is pretty muchwhere it’s been at through the Walker years. And Wisconsin is still “dead last”in the Midwest, as Burke has stated time and time again.
Wisconsin shed evenmore jobs this summer, about 4,300private-sector jobs lost in August, and we still haven’t bounced back topre-recession levels of jobs. The Journal Sentinel, predictably, buries this inits article headlined with Wisconsin’s falling unemployment rate—a headlinethat Walker will no doubt use in a campaign ad.
In addition, Walker’sbudget deficit is starting to grow. The nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureaufound that the state will have a $1.8 billion deficit going into the 2015-2017biennial budget. That’s squarely on Walker’s shoulders. What’s more, state Sen.Jennifer Shilling has calculated that the deficit will likely balloon beyondthat, once you figure in outstanding needs and departmental requests for thenext budget. That statedeficit will grow to $3 billion, Shilling says, pretty much what Walkerinherited during the depths of the Great Recession.
So, will any of thesenumbers matter in November? Will the few remaining undecideds swing one way oranother based on cold, hard data? I say no. I’ve realized, especially inWisconsin these past few years, that cold, hard facts mean little to voters.Voting is a hugely emotional act. You can debate facts—or “facts”—endlessly andyou will not be able to persuade someone to come over to your side. What reallymatters is an emotional connection.
Well, an emotionalconnection and voter suppression.
Which brings us tothe big news of the week, the federal appeals court decision to unblock to thevoter ID law.
As I wrote yesterday,the cold, hard facts that were accepted by the trial judge show that 300,000qualified, registered Wisconsin voters would be disenfranchised by thislaw. Another 70,000 qualified but not registered voters would be as well. AsDale Ho from the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project calculated, the state would haveto issue roughly 6,000new ID cards each day throughout the seven weeks leading up to the Nov. 4election to allow all of these qualified voters to cast a ballot on that day.
Possible? I don’tthink so.
The 2010gubernatorial election was decided by 124,638ballots. Surely the GOP—and Walker—want to ensure that margin holds firm.What better way to protect one’s margin of victory than by erecting barriers atthe ballot box?
